We’ve got a pair of intriguing rookie quarterbacks in Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota. Winston is the more polished passer, and he’s not shy about rifling it around – he’ll try the dangerous, downfield passes. With Mariota, he’s not as far along as a passer but has intriguing mobility. So which makes the most fantasy sense.
Below is the rundown of the top 30 rookie quarterbacks of the last 20 years. First-round quarterbacks only on this one – the guys who attempted at least 200 passes in their first season. They’re ordered from 1 thru 30 using the fantasy scoring system of 6 points for touchdowns, 1 for every 10 yards, 4 for TD passes and 1 for every 20 passing yards.
Some of the really good ones were notable runners in their first seasons – Cam Newton, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. On the running front, Mariota looks like one of those kind of guys (while Winston clearly does not).
But the correlation is even stronger for passers. That is, of the top 12 rookie quarterbacks, 10 of them were also top-10 passers in their first season. It is rare for a quarterback to be able to make a fantasy impact with legs alone.
Our two exception quarterbacks in this study are Vince Young, who ran for 552 yards and 7 TDs in his first year but wasn’t much of a passer. And Blake Bortles, who was just average as a passer but put together nice rushing stats.
But four of these rookie quarterbacks were top-10 rushers but still finished with below-average fantasy numbers (Couch, Carr, Manuel and McNabb).
I take this as evidence that Winston might still be better than Mariota fantasy wise this year. Mariota should kill him in rushing production, but Winston might be a lot more productive through the air.
In the chart below, if a quarterback as a top-10 passer in his first year, he’s in bold. And by top 10, I mean top 10 of these 30 guys – the top third.
If a quarterback was in the top third in rushing, he’s got the fabled black dot.
We'll learn more about Winston and Mariota, of course, when we see them in the preseason games.
| FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS SINCE 1995 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pass | TDP | Run | TDR | Points |
| 2011 | • Cam Newton, Car. | 4,051 | 21 | 706 | 14 | 441.2 |
| 2012 | • Andrew Luck, Ind. | 4,374 | 23 | 255 | 5 | 366.2 |
| 2012 | • Robert Griffin III, Wash. | 3,200 | 20 | 815 | 7 | 363.5 |
| 1998 | Peyton Manning, Ind. | 3,739 | 26 | 62 | 0 | 297.2 |
| 2010 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 3,512 | 18 | 63 | 1 | 259.9 |
| 2006 | • Vince Young, Tenn. | 2,199 | 12 | 552 | 7 | 255.2 |
| 2008 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 3,440 | 16 | 104 | 1 | 252.4 |
| 2012 | • Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 3,294 | 12 | 211 | 2 | 245.8 |
| 2012 | Brandon Weeden, Clev. | 3,385 | 14 | 111 | 0 | 236.4 |
| 2008 | Joe Flacco, Balt. | 2,971 | 14 | 180 | 2 | 234.6 |
| 2014 | • Blake Bortles, Jac. | 2,908 | 11 | 419 | 0 | 231.3 |
| 2014 | Teddy Bridgewater, Minn. | 2,919 | 14 | 209 | 1 | 228.9 |
| 2003 | Byron Leftwich, Jac. | 2,819 | 14 | 108 | 2 | 219.8 |
| 2004 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 2,621 | 17 | 144 | 1 | 219.5 |
| 1995 | Kerry Collins, Car. | 2,717 | 14 | 74 | 3 | 217.3 |
| 1999 | • Tim Couch, Clev. | 2,447 | 15 | 278 | 1 | 216.2 |
| 2002 | • David Carr, Hou. | 2,592 | 9 | 282 | 3 | 211.8 |
| 2009 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 2,444 | 12 | 106 | 3 | 198.8 |
| 2006 | Matt Leinart, Ariz. | 2,547 | 11 | 49 | 2 | 188.3 |
| 2009 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 2,267 | 13 | 108 | 2 | 188.2 |
| 2013 | • EJ Manuel, Buff. | 1,972 | 11 | 186 | 2 | 173.2 |
| 2011 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 2,214 | 12 | 98 | 0 | 168.5 |
| 2011 | Christian Ponder, Minn. | 1,853 | 13 | 219 | 0 | 166.6 |
| 2002 | Joey Harrington, Det. | 2,294 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 163.1 |
| 2009 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | 1,855 | 10 | 161 | 0 | 148.9 |
| 1999 | Cade McNown, Chi. | 1,465 | 8 | 160 | 0 | 121.3 |
| 2002 | Patrick Ramsey, Wash. | 1,539 | 9 | -1 | 1 | 118.9 |
| 1999 | • Donovan McNabb, Phil. | 948 | 8 | 313 | 0 | 110.7 |
| 2003 | Kyle Boller, Balt. | 1,260 | 7 | 62 | 0 | 97.2 |
| 1998 | Ryan Leaf, S.D. | 1,289 | 2 | 80 | 0 | 80.5 |
—Ian Allan