As you make your final preparations for your final drafts and final auctions, I have one final piece of advice: Be extra careful when considering players from the hometown team.
Now, that advice should depend on where you live, shouldn't it? If the home team is in Wisconsin, maybe you can believe more of what you read than if you live in Oakland, for example. The better the team, the more you can accept what you hear and read from the local media, right?
Wrong. Absolutely, completely wrong. The bias is exactly the same. It has nothing to do with the product on the green field, and everything to do with the type of green that lines wealthy pockets.
If you're lucky enough to live in an NFL city, you won't have to search very far for coverage of the team. Radio, television, print and web-based outlets will step over each other at practices, press conferences and fake games (sorry, preseason contests) to get the best interviews, video and photos. And it's not even a fair fight. Some outlets become "official partners" of the team, meaning they paid for better access. That might mean exclusive interviews, radio programs hosted by players or coaches and inside information. On the surface, it might look like a great way to find out about your favorite team, or at least the team closest to where you live. But nothing could be further from the truth. You won't get the best information from their official partners, or any media in the city.
It's not that they'll outright lie to you. But everything they do will come from a fan's perspective. Every story will be seen through an optimistic lens. Even well-deserved criticism will be somewhat muted. That happens all year to a degree, but it's especially true before the season starts. The media partners act like fans of the team in order to cater to their listeners, viewers and readers who are actual fans.
(None of this applies to New York, by the way. Their media delights in picking apart any threads of discord well before the first training camp opens. It's a completely different kind of bias, but they're still biased).
It's not just the ones that pay for the partnerships, either. Every other media outlet is fighting for table scraps of access. Do you think they're going to do anything to upset the players, coaches or front office? You think they'll be eager to put out negative coverage, even if it's deserved?
Of course not. Instead, you'll get reports about how young an aging veteran looks, how a struggling starter is really turning things around how another running back is setting his sights on 2,000 yards rushing this year. Injuries are healed, draft picks look good and players all over the field are poised for a breakout season.
Maybe they'll be a bit more objective when the games start, but it will be too late for you by then. Day after day, week after week, you'll have absorbed so much positive spin you'll think the players are running for office. And it's going to have an effect on draft day.
So what can you do, especially at this late stage? First, don't consume local media content. If you want information on a player, go to a newspaper in a city without a team, or in a city with a franchise that doesn't even play the local team this year. They have no reason to spin things positively or negatively. You might find that the old player just looks old, and the struggling youngster is still struggling. That free agent might look awfully slow, and those injuries might be lingering into the regular season. That information will help you make better decisions when it counts most.
Finally, accept that you already have some bias baked in to your projections. It might be media bias, since you've been exposed to what former Federal Reserve Board chairman Alan Greenspan once called "irrational exuberance." Or it could be your own personal bias, which attracts you to positive stories about the team and players you like. In any case, try to account for that when making your selections. You don't have to drop a player way down your list, but maybe it counts against him as a tie-breaker if you're deciding between two guys. Maybe if you have a local player on the bubble of one tier, he really belongs in a lower one. And if you find yourself really hoping an injury isn't that bad, you might want to assume the worst timetable or prognosis.
This is the opposite of what most fantasy owners do, of course. They want players on their team they like, and often bump a player up their list to get him. But most owners don't win their league. Most don't even make the playoffs, and the vast majority end up congratulating someone else in December.
That doesn't have to be you. Acknowledging and countering bias is much better than pretending it doesn't exist. And in a world with a 32-team supply and almost limitless demand, bias is a certainty. It can influence your fellow owners to their heart's content. Just don't let it influence yours. Best of luck at your draft or auction.
Do you recognize local media bias in your city? Do you pursue or avoid players from your favorite team? Share your thoughts below.
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