Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Travis Hunter's painfully short routes. Is Derrick Henry overrated? Quentin Johnston's scoring potential. Valuing injured George Kittle. And more.
Question 1
Time to cut bait on Travis Hunter?
Matt Morse (Glennallen, AK)
I hate the way the Jaguars are using Hunter. I could see it coming on his limited opportunities in the preseason and should have been more vocal in pointing it out. The idea of throwing guys passes out in the flat, hoping they can create yards after the catch, it’s a tough way to live. Reminds me of Tavon Austin (another top-10 pick), who averaged 8.7 yards per catch in his five seasons with the Rams. The Jaguars probably should be focusing on trying to turn Hunter into another Patrick Surtain or Derek Stingley. He’d be more valuable in that role. And if he’s playing wide receiver, let’s get him downfield. Since the NFL started tracking targets in the early ‘90s, only three wide receivers with at least 50 pass plays have averaged less than 4 yards per pass play. Hunter is currently in that group. They’ve thrown 14 balls in his direction, resulting in 9 catches for 55 yards. (In the chart, you see the dozen who’ve finished under 4 yards per play with at least 40 targets.)
| AVERAGING UNDER 4 YARDS PER PASS PLAY | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Tgt | No | Yards | Avg | TD | Yd/T |
| 2012 | Mike Thomas, Jac.-Det. | 40 | 18 | 108 | 6.0 | 1 | 2.7 |
| 1996 | Alex Van Dyke, NYJ | 43 | 17 | 118 | 6.9 | 1 | 2.7 |
| 2017 | Kamar Aiken, Ind. | 44 | 15 | 133 | 8.9 | 0 | 3.0 |
| 2011 | Eddie Royal, Den. | 50 | 19 | 155 | 8.2 | 1 | 3.1 |
| 2009 | Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak. | 40 | 9 | 124 | 13.8 | 1 | 3.1 |
| 2018 | John Ross, Cin. | 58 | 21 | 210 | 10.0 | 7 | 3.6 |
| 1997 | Fred Barnett, Mia. | 45 | 17 | 166 | 9.8 | 1 | 3.7 |
| 2018 | Chad Williams, Ari. | 46 | 17 | 171 | 10.1 | 1 | 3.7 |
| 2008 | Ronald Curry, Oak. | 48 | 19 | 181 | 9.5 | 2 | 3.8 |
| 2008 | Donte Stallworth, Cle. | 45 | 17 | 170 | 10.0 | 1 | 3.8 |
| 2012 | Early Doucet, Ari. | 53 | 28 | 207 | 7.4 | 0 | 3.9 |
| 2025 | Travis Hunter, Jac. | 14 | 9 | 55 | 6.1 | 0 | 3.9 |
| 2024 | Jonathan Mingo, Car.-Dall. | 42 | 17 | 167 | 9.8 | 0 | 4.0 |
Question 2
Watching the Bills’ game it occurred to me how good is Derrick Henry compared to a guy like Walter Payton? Henry was on the bench for the last drive. He has put up great numbers but when you need to close a game is Henry any good? In other words when you need just one first down. Henry is a beast and has so many long runs but not very elusive. He is powerful but only if the blocking is there and he has a head of steam. Guys like Thurman Thomas, Barry Sanders and Walter I think are better for the situation when you just need a first down. Henry is a great Fantasy Football player. I would much rather have an Adrian Peterson as well on my NFL team.
David Kennedy (Steamburg, NY)
Thomas and Sanders, recall, were both pulled in short-yardage and goal-line situations. You’re a Bills fan, you remember those guys – Robb Riddick, Kenneth Davis. Sanders had seasons with 3 and 4 touchdowns (in this final season, Tommy Vardell outscored him). So the idea that they were better than Henry at picking up a key yard, that’s not the way I remember it. To me, Henry is an easy first-ballot Hall of Famer. I consider him to be better and more impactful than most of the other running backs who’ve been enshrined. Why, with that playing style, Henry hasn’t worn down like the two other behemoth backs (Earl Campbell, Eddie George) selected by that franchise, I have no idea.
Question 3
A question regarding custom scoring systems and ranking of players: I have George Kittle and I am considering trading for Dallas Goedert. They both show approximately 160 points in my custom scoring system. Does this mean that for the rest of the NFL season, they will score roughly the same number of points, with Goedert doing so in 13 or 14 games and kiddo doing so in 10 or 11 games? In other words, will Kittle be much more valuable when he comes off of IR?
MICHAEL HAMER (Springfield, PA)
It's Hamer time. With most players, the points total reflects how much production to expect from a player for the duration of the season. You take a player’s per-game production, multiply it by his remaining number of games, and there’s your total. But there are exception players – like Kittle. With Kittle, he’ll miss at least three more games, but when he returns, he’ll probably be a top-5 tight end for the duration. It most fantasy leagues, that makes him more valuable than many of the tight ends who’ll produce more total points. Most of us would rather have 10 great games of Kittle rather than 14 pretty good games from Goedert. So for these exception players – Kittle, Rashee Rice – I slip in some bonus stats, elevating these players into the range where my gut sense tells me they should be selected if we were starting a league from scratch. They’re behind-the-curtain stats; you can’t see them, but they’re in there to help in the construction of the overall board.
Question 4
Jordan Addison returns week 4, how viable will he be with the QB situation in Minnesota? I see you have him ranked in the 40’s for PPR prior to week 3.
Scott MacDoniels (Chesterfield, MO)
He’s talented. He averaged top-25 numbers last year, averaging 4.2 catches for 58 yards, with 10 TDs in 15 games. Only two other wide receivers in the last 30 years have scored 10-plus touchdowns in both of their first two seasons: Moss and Beckham. There are issues to figure out. J.J. McCarthy has looked like garbage in seven of his eight quarters. And they need to get Christian Darrisaw healthy and plugged in at left tackle (Darrisaw was a full participant at practice today). But they’ve got Kevin O’Connell dialing up these plays, making me optimistic they’ll come up with some answers.
Question 5
With Joe Burrow likely gone for the season, in a TD-only League would you pick up Jake Browning or Daniel Jones?
Rick Anderson (Magnolia, TX)
I’ve got them both in my top 15. Jones a little higher. Now that he’s got a capable quarterback to work with, everyone’s starting to remember that Shane Steichen is a good offensive coach. And these first two games show us that he’s going to be using Jones on quarterback sneaks all year – kind of diet version of Jalen Hurts. What exactly changed with Danny Dimes, I’m not sure. I thought he couldn’t throw a decent deep ball, but he’s connected on long balls to Alec Pierce in both of the first two games. Looks like he can throw those just fine. I don’t think the Colts are going to fizzle away.
Question 6
Longtime subscriber largely because you are one of the very few publications that issue TD-only ranks. Our 16 team TD only league is in its 36th season. If I could, I'd attach a pic I have one of me on vacation with my late wife reading your 1993 mag (Steve Young on cover). Anyway, my question is how you formulate TD rankings. I am conflicted. You have Quentin Johnston ranked well above my other WRs (pickens, bateman, Jamo). But sites like draft kings and fan duel have his odds to score a td MUCH lower (+250 vs 170-190ish).
Jeff Bamer (Eagle, ID)
Thanks for the nice trip down memory lane (and condolences on losing your partner). I’m also in a long-standing TD-only league (a 12-teamer, running 4 years ahead of you guys). TD-only is a different animal. You’re looking for those finisher-type guys, not worrying so much about total touches. In regards to process, we’ve got teams and players networked together. For the team, we’re trying to get the overall touchdown number right – how many touchdowns would the team score in a 17-game season? Once that number is calculated, you need to decide on the ratio of passes to runs. And when you’ve got the TD pass and TD run numbers, those have to be divided amongst the skill position players on the team. Specifically to the question of Quentin Johnston, he’s been tough. He had a rough rookie years and some killer drops last year. I wasn’t 100 percent certain in the offseason he’d even be starting. Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen are both catching more passes than him, and they drafted wide receivers in the second and fifth rounds (with KeAndre Lambert-Smith looking good early in the preseason). But Johnston has scored in the first two weeks. He’s got more knockout ability than either McConkey or Allen, even though those guys are better route runners. Johnston has more size and speed (and isn’t a huge part of the offense), making him a better target when the team is looking for a big play off play action. If I’m walking into a draft today, I don’t think there’s much difference between those three Chargers receivers in our TD-only format. Johnston is the leader right now, and I think it’s definitely possible he’ll wind up being their leader. The Chargers have their passing game humming right now, so I expect all three of those guys will be good. Bateman (scoreless and in an even more crowded situation) looks like your worst receiver for now. Whether you’re using Johnston, Pickens or Jamo in the coming weeks will depend on matchups.
Question 7
What's the thinking on Tank Bigsby? Hang on and hope for a Barkley injury? Is he even considered a handcuff at this point? Or kick him to the curb and move on?
Bill Rudi (Kansas City, MO)
With Bigsby, I think you’re getting a back who might be Philadelphia’s backup running back for part of the season. AJ Dillon held that role at Arrowhead. Will Shipley looked really good early in the opener. When Shipley’s ribs are healed up, I think he’ll be the backup there. So if you’re holding Bigsby, the hope is that he can pick things up quickly and impress, moving past Dillon. And the pie-in the-sky dream is that he can also beat out Shipley. In most leagues, I think there’s a running back who’s unrostered that I like more than Bigsby.
Question 8
I’m being offered Rashee Rice for Embuka. I’d be missing 4 games of production from EE, which include games against Philly and Seahawks, and maybe a slight bump down in targets when Godwin returns. I’m kind of weak at the other receiver spot due to Brian Thomas’ issues. I’m thinking about doing this deal - what are your thoughts?
Robert Cummings (Los Angeles, CA)
I’d be inclined to pull the trigger, if I felt that I could survive for four weeks with smoke, mirror and waiver claims. I believe Rice will be a monster when he comes back – that true No. 1 option that the game’s best quarterback needs. Rice in his last 13 full games has averaged 7.2 catches for 82 yards, with 6 TDs. Yes please.
Question 9
I have a couple of RBs who are in a timeshare and unfortunately, BTJ is not looking like that WR1 i was hoping for. I am looking to trade either Kyren and/or Kenneth Walker. I have Henry and Judkins. My WR group is light with Ridley, Sutton and Jennings. What kind of value should i be happy with in return for one of the RBs? Would Metcalf be good or should i shoot higher? I don’t want to panic too soon but at 0-2 it’s getting late, early.
robert grotto (boca raton, FL)
Metcalf hasn’t exactly been balling out either. He’s in the wait-and-see group. With Judkins, I am intrigued that the Browns want to move him into the featured role. But I’m not sure if it will amount to much. He finished with good numbers in the Baltimore game (10 carries, 61 yards) but over half of his production came on a carry with 4 minutes left, with the Ravens having called off the dogs. He looked pretty ordinary on his other 9 attempts, gaining 30 yards.
Question 10
In a very deep (16-team, re-draft) league. As such, most of the guys on waivers aren't usually too helpful. Currently holding some bench players that received some pre-season hype, as lottery tickets. Do you think any are worth saving, or are they wasting space?: KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Jayden Higgins, Pat Bryant, Mason Taylor, Sean Tucker.
Greg Resin (Palos Verdes Estates, CA)
KeAndre Lambert-Smith had a couple of impressive catches early in the preseason, looking like he might be a thing. But Tre Harris on Monday night played a lot more and caught 2 passes for 34 yards. Harris, recall, was their second-round pick, chosen three rounds before KLS. On my board, I have updated, with Harris now higher. Of your guys, I would be most interested in Sean Tucker. Definitely Tampa Bay’s No. 3 back, but guys get hurt at that position. And Pat Bryant would be No. 2, with the chance of him developing as the season progresses.