Historically, games inside the division tend to be a little scoring. I don’t have the exact numbers in front of me, but I believe it’s about 3 points per game over the last 10 years. Defenses, I believe, tend to gain immunity over time against offenses – they learn how to better defend them. Don’t let this guy get deep. Don’t let this running back bounce it outside. Stuff like that.
But there are exceptions to every rule, and a couple of big exceptions to this one take the field on Sunday.
Tony Romo historically kills the Giants, and Aaron Rodgers clobbers the Bears.
In the case of Rodgers, there was a Monday night game a few years back where he got hurt after only 2 pass attempts. Josh McCown led the Bears to a 27-20 win in that one. But in the last seven other games in this series, Rodgers has won all of them, averaging 289 yards, with 24 TDs versus only 4 interceptions.
Rodgers has thrown at least 3 TDs in five of those seven games.
So, he seems to be in the mix to be the No. 1 quarterback in Week 1.
| AARON RODGERS VERSUS CHICAGO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Venue | Result | Yards | TD | Int |
| 2011 | Chi. | W 27-17 | 297 | 3 | 1 |
| 2011 | G.B. | W 35-21 | 283 | 5 | 0 |
| 2012 | G.B. | W 23-10 | 219 | 1 | 1 |
| 2012 | Chi. | W 21-13 | 291 | 3 | 0 |
| 2013 | G.B. | L 20-27 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
| 2013 | Chi. | W 33-28 | 318 | 2 | 2 |
| 2014 | Chi. | W 38-17 | 302 | 4 | 0 |
| 2014 | G.B. | W 55-14 | 315 | 6 | 0 |
Romo has been similarly awesome. In his case, he’s only 5-3 in his last eight against the Giants, but he’s tended to march the ball up and down the field in the vast majority of those games.
Romo has averaged 300 passing yards in his last eight against New York, with 21 TDs and 9 interceptions. In the one game he threw only one touchdown, he also ran for a touchdown (which I have included in the “TD” column).
| TONY ROMO VERSUS GIANTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Venue | Result | Yards | TD | Int |
| 2011 | Dall. | L 34-37 | 321 | 4 | 0 |
| 2011 | N.Y. | L 14-31 | 289 | 2 | 1 |
| 2012 | N.Y. | W 24-17 | 307 | 3 | 1 |
| 2012 | Dall. | L 24-29 | 437 | 2 | 4 |
| 2013 | Dall. | W 36-31 | 263 | 2 | 1 |
| 2013 | N.Y. | W 24-21 | 234 | 2 | 1 |
| 2014 | Dall. | W 31-21 | 279 | 3 | 1 |
| 2014 | N.Y. | W 31-28 | 275 | 4 | 0 |
Past performance doesn’t guarantee future success, but both the Giants and Bears look very leaky on defense, so I think you have to be very high on both of these quarterbacks.
Some fantasy leaguers (thousands, I think) have both Andrew Luck and Romo on their rosters. While it’s unusual and a little risky to sit down a guy like Luck (who’s on the road against a good Colts defense) I think this is a week where I would without hesitation plug Romo into my lineup ahead of him.
—Ian Allan
