There’s the intriguing game in Tampa Bay between the two rookie quarterbacks. Not that anybody is much interested in using either of those guys (unless those in leagues starting two quarterbacks) but what about the defenses? Rookie quarterbacks tend to be involved in more sacks, fumbles and interceptions, so doesn’t it make sense to take a one-week plug-and-play gamble on either the Titans or the Bucs?
Especially the Titans, since Winston seems to have way too much confidence with forcing balls into coverage. And as a disclaimer, I will admit that I have used a waiver claim on Tennessee in one league. Am using them instead of Kansas City, which I consider an upgrade.
But what is the probability that there’s any payoff?
I dug around in the numbers some, and these kind of defenses haven’t been as successful as I would have guessed.
I took all of the quarterbacks selected in the first round in the last 10 years. Then I looked at how they did in their first start. Turns out, of the last 21 such quarterbacks, only one had a turnover resulting in a touchdown. Jake Locker got sacked, with Donta Hightower picking it up and taking it into the end zone.
In these 21 games, there were three other touchdowns, but none involved the quarterback. In Robert Griffin III’s debut win at New Orleans (a win that seemed to signify a huge shift in the NFL landscape) the Saints scored on a blocked punt return. And in Cam Newton’s first game (at Arizona), the Patrick Peterson returned a punt for a touchdown for the Cardinals. Similarly, in Joe Flacco’s first game, Ray Rice had a fumble returned 65 yards for a touchdown – no fault of Flacco’s.
The big payoff just hasn’t been there. In the last 20 of these games, opposing defenses have intercepted 26 passes (good, but not earth-shattering), and the quarterbacks have lost only 2 fumbles. They’ve also been sacked only 34 games – 1.7 per game, which is pretty average.
If you go back just a little further, then you start to see the kind of games you would want. Alex Smith and Vince Young had interceptions for touchdowns, and JaMarcus Russell lost a fumble in his own end zone.
There were six of these games in 2005-2007, and in those I’m seeing 10 interceptions, 5 lost fumbles and 21 sacks.
A few of these quarterbacks didn’t start any games as rookies (and I’ve got them flagged). And Aaron Rodgers is the most unusual of all, not starting a game until his fourth year (so his first start is dramatically different than with most of these guys).
Also note that all of these guys are first-round picks. There have been a lot of lesser prospects who have started games (maybe in Week 16 or whatever) and I didn’t want to pollute the results.
| DEFENSES AGAINST ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Defense | Opponent | Int | Fumb | Sack | Score |
| 2014 | Atlanta | at Teddy Bridgewater | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2014 | Cincinnati | at Johnny Manziel | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| 2014 | San Diego | at Blake Bortles | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| 2013 | New England | at EJ Manuel | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2012 | Chicago | Andrew Luck | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| 2012 | Houston | Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| 2012 | New England | * at Jake Locker | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 fumble ret |
| 2012 | New Orleans | Robert Griffin III | 0 | 0 | 2 | blkd punt |
| 2012 | Philadelphia | at Brandon Weeden | 4 | 0 | 2 | |
| 2011 | Arizona | Cam Newton | 1 | 0 | 4 | punt return |
| 2011 | Carolina | Blaine Gabbert | 1 | 0 | 2 | safety |
| 2011 | Green Bay | at Christian Ponder | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| 2010 | Arizona | Sam Bradford | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| 2010 | Oakland | Tim Tebow | 0 | 0 | 2 | safety |
| 2009 | Baltimore | at Mark Sanchez | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 2009 | Green Bay | at Josh Freeman | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2009 | New Orleans | at Matthew Stafford | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2008 | Cincinnati | at Joe Flacco | 0 | 0 | 0 | fumble ret |
| 2008 | Denver | * at Brady Quinn | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2008 | Detroit | at Matt Ryan | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2008 | Minnesota | *** at Aaron Rodgers | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 2007 | San Diego | at JaMarcus Russell | 1 | 2 | 4 | fumble rec |
| 2006 | Dallas | at Vince Young | 2 | 1 | 4 | INT ret |
| 2006 | Kansas City | at Matt Leinart | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| 2006 | Seattle | at Jay Cutler | 2 | 1 | 3 | 25 int ret |
| 2006 | Tampa Bay | * Jason Campbell | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2005 | Indianapolis | at Alex Smith | 4 | 1 | 5 | INT ret |
—Ian Allan