The season is starting in 6 hours, so it’s time to lock in on some big-picture predictions. I’ve spent the whole offseason studying these teams, and I’ve seen all of the first-team action in the 65 preseason games. I can now take that knowledge and apply it the upcoming schedule, making a prediction for each of the 256 regular-season games.
For each of these games, I’ve looked at the two opponents and made a ballpark guess of how I think it will go. That is, if it’s a tossup game that could go either way, I give each team a 50 percent chance of winning, and they share that win. If I feel a team has a 60 percent chance of winning, it gets .60 of the win for that game.
If we follow that process for every team and every game, we get a general idea of how the season should unfold.
A lot of the numbers look way too precise – 56%, 63%, etc – and that needs to be explained.
For this endeavor, I started by projecting a record for each team based on gut feel and forgetting about the schedule. That is, if a team were to play a typical schedule, how many games would it win? – 8-8, 11-5, whatever. I then set up a calculator to give me an initial estimate for each game. Home teams tend to win about 56-57 percent of the time in the NFL, so if two 8-8 teams are playing, it stands to reason the home team should come in about that range. And the highest I was willing to go for any one-sided matchup was about 95 percent – meaning said team would win 19 out of 20 games. I then had a sliding scale between those two levels, with the initial estimate that each win (in a 16-game season) is worth about 6 percent of probability.
Then, after all that initial groundwork, I went through the games 1 thru 256 and adjusted the numbers up and down some on gut feel.
It turned out this way …
| Expected Win Totals | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Green Bay | 11.53 |
| 2. | Seattle | 11.36 |
| 3. | Philadelphia | 11.04 |
| 4. | New England | 11.02 |
| 5. | Indianapolis | 11.02 |
| 6. | Baltimore | 10.41 |
| 7. | Denver | 10.26 |
| 8. | Atlanta | 9.56 |
| 9. | New Orleans | 8.53 |
| 10. | Miami | 8.49 |
| 11. | Buffalo | 8.46 |
| 12. | Kansas City | 8.36 |
| 13. | San Diego | 8.32 |
| 14. | Pittsburgh | 8.04 |
| 15. | Minnesota | 7.95 |
| 16. | Carolina | 7.81 |
| 17. | Dallas | 7.80 |
| 18. | Detroit | 7.76 |
| 19. | NY Jets | 7.71 |
| 20. | Cincinnati | 7.66 |
| 21. | NY Giants | 7.57 |
| 22. | Arizona | 7.54 |
| 23. | Houston | 7.34 |
| 24. | St. Louis | 6.74 |
| 25. | San Francisco | 5.92 |
| 26. | Cleveland | 5.90 |
| 27. | Oakland | 5.72 |
| 28. | Chicago | 5.66 |
| 29. | Tampa Bay | 5.50 |
| 30. | Tennessee | 5.31 |
| 31. | Jacksonville | 4.87 |
| 32. | Washington | 4.84 |
Green Bay and New England in the Super Bowl, the numbers say.
NFC Division Winners: Packers, Seahawks, Eagles, Falcons.
AFC Division Winners: Patriots, Colts, Ravens, Broncos.
Wild cards: Saints, Dolphins, Bills, Vikings.
And here’s the supporting documentation.
| FORECASTS FOR ALL 256 REGULAR-SEASON GAMES | ||
|---|---|---|
| Wk | Road | Home |
| 1 | Miami (68%) | at Washington (32%) |
| 1 | Tennessee (46%) | at Tampa Bay (54%) |
| 1 | Seattle (56%) | at St. Louis (44%) |
| 1 | Minnesota (56%) | at San Francisco (44%) |
| 1 | Detroit (40%) | at San Diego (60%) |
| 1 | Cincinnati (55%) | at Oakland (45%) |
| 1 | Cleveland (35%) | at NY Jets (65%) |
| 1 | Pittsburgh (17%) | at New England (83%) |
| 1 | Carolina (56%) | at Jacksonville (44%) |
| 1 | Kansas City (52%) | at Houston (48%) |
| 1 | Baltimore (42%) | at Denver (58%) |
| 1 | NY Giants (40%) | at Dallas (60%) |
| 1 | Green Bay (75%) | at Chicago (25%) |
| 1 | Indianapolis (52%) | at Buffalo (48%) |
| 1 | Philadelphia (52%) | at Atlanta (48%) |
| 1 | New Orleans (43%) | at Arizona (57%) |
| 2 | St. Louis (54%) | at Washington (46%) |
| 2 | San Francisco (29%) | at Pittsburgh (71%) |
| 2 | Dallas (29%) | at Philadelphia (71%) |
| 2 | Baltimore (71%) | at Oakland (29%) |
| 2 | Atlanta (50%) | at NY Giants (50%) |
| 2 | Tampa Bay (20%) | at New Orleans (80%) |
| 2 | Detroit (43%) | at Minnesota (57%) |
| 2 | Denver (50%) | at Kansas City (50%) |
| 2 | Miami (69%) | at Jacksonville (31%) |
| 2 | NY Jets (25%) | at Indianapolis (75%) |
| 2 | Seattle (37%) | at Green Bay (63%) |
| 2 | Tennessee (36%) | at Cleveland (64%) |
| 2 | San Diego (48%) | at Cincinnati (52%) |
| 2 | Arizona (55%) | at Chicago (45%) |
| 2 | Houston (40%) | at Carolina (60%) |
| 2 | New England (53%) | at Buffalo (47%) |
| 3 | Indianapolis (78%) | at Tennessee (22%) |
| 3 | Pittsburgh (55%) | at St. Louis (45%) |
| 3 | Chicago (7%) | at Seattle (93%) |
| 3 | Philadelphia (65%) | at NY Jets (35%) |
| 3 | Washington (30%) | at NY Giants (70%) |
| 3 | Jacksonville (6%) | at New England (94%) |
| 3 | San Diego (45%) | at Minnesota (55%) |
| 3 | Buffalo (42%) | at Miami (58%) |
| 3 | Tampa Bay (31%) | at Houston (69%) |
| 3 | Kansas City (24%) | at Green Bay (76%) |
| 3 | Denver (57%) | at Detroit (43%) |
| 3 | Atlanta (45%) | at Dallas (55%) |
| 3 | Oakland (43%) | at Cleveland (57%) |
| 3 | New Orleans (44%) | at Carolina (56%) |
| 3 | Cincinnati (28%) | at Baltimore (72%) |
| 3 | San Francisco (36%) | at Arizona (64%) |
| 4 | NY Jets (45%) | vs. Miami (55%) |
| 4 | Philadelphia (81%) | at Washington (19%) |
| 4 | Carolina (58%) | at Tampa Bay (42%) |
| 4 | Detroit (24%) | at Seattle (76%) |
| 4 | Green Bay (75%) | at San Francisco (25%) |
| 4 | Cleveland (28%) | at San Diego (72%) |
| 4 | Baltimore (48%) | at Pittsburgh (52%) |
| 4 | Dallas (45%) | at New Orleans (55%) |
| 4 | Jacksonville (8%) | at Indianapolis (92%) |
| 4 | Minnesota (26%) | at Denver (74%) |
| 4 | Kansas City (50%) | at Cincinnati (50%) |
| 4 | Oakland (45%) | at Chicago (55%) |
| 4 | NY Giants (40%) | at Buffalo (60%) |
| 4 | Houston (35%) | at Atlanta (65%) |
| 4 | St. Louis (37%) | at Arizona (63%) |
| 5 | Buffalo (67%) | at Tennessee (33%) |
| 5 | Jacksonville (45%) | at Tampa Bay (55%) |
| 5 | Pittsburgh (46%) | at San Diego (54%) |
| 5 | New Orleans (26%) | at Philadelphia (74%) |
| 5 | Denver (68%) | at Oakland (32%) |
| 5 | San Francisco (36%) | at NY Giants (64%) |
| 5 | Chicago (28%) | at Kansas City (72%) |
| 5 | Indianapolis (64%) | at Houston (36%) |
| 5 | St. Louis (13%) | at Green Bay (87%) |
| 5 | Arizona (42%) | at Detroit (58%) |
| 5 | New England (58%) | at Dallas (42%) |
| 5 | Seattle (62%) | at Cincinnati (38%) |
| 5 | Cleveland (17%) | at Baltimore (83%) |
| 5 | Washington (18%) | at Atlanta (82%) |
| 6 | Miami (68%) | at Tennessee (32%) |
| 6 | Carolina (19%) | at Seattle (81%) |
| 6 | Baltimore (71%) | at San Francisco (29%) |
| 6 | Arizona (40%) | at Pittsburgh (60%) |
| 6 | NY Giants (28%) | at Philadelphia (72%) |
| 6 | Washington (29%) | at NY Jets (71%) |
| 6 | Atlanta (50%) | at New Orleans (50%) |
| 6 | Kansas City (46%) | at Minnesota (54%) |
| 6 | Houston (52%) | at Jacksonville (48%) |
| 6 | New England (49%) | at Indianapolis (51%) |
| 6 | San Diego (25%) | at Green Bay (75%) |
| 6 | Chicago (29%) | at Detroit (71%) |
| 6 | Denver (72%) | at Cleveland (28%) |
| 6 | Cincinnati (40%) | at Buffalo (60%) |
| 7 | Buffalo (72%) | vs. Jacksonville (28%) |
| 7 | Tampa Bay (45%) | at Washington (55%) |
| 7 | Atlanta (68%) | at Tennessee (32%) |
| 7 | Cleveland (42%) | at St. Louis (58%) |
| 7 | Seattle (76%) | at San Francisco (24%) |
| 7 | Oakland (29%) | at San Diego (71%) |
| 7 | Dallas (46%) | at NY Giants (54%) |
| 7 | NY Jets (25%) | at New England (75%) |
| 7 | Houston (33%) | at Miami (67%) |
| 7 | Pittsburgh (41%) | at Kansas City (59%) |
| 7 | New Orleans (25%) | at Indianapolis (75%) |
| 7 | Minnesota (46%) | at Detroit (54%) |
| 7 | Philadelphia (64%) | at Carolina (36%) |
| 7 | Baltimore (58%) | at Arizona (42%) |
| 8 | Detroit (48%) | vs. Kansas City (52%) |
| 8 | San Francisco (42%) | at St. Louis (58%) |
| 8 | Cincinnati (37%) | at Pittsburgh (63%) |
| 8 | NY Jets (52%) | at Oakland (48%) |
| 8 | NY Giants (42%) | at New Orleans (58%) |
| 8 | Miami (28%) | at New England (72%) |
| 8 | Tennessee (32%) | at Houston (68%) |
| 8 | Green Bay (47%) | at Denver (53%) |
| 8 | Seattle (62%) | at Dallas (38%) |
| 8 | Arizona (55%) | at Cleveland (45%) |
| 8 | Minnesota (60%) | at Chicago (40%) |
| 8 | Indianapolis (63%) | at Carolina (37%) |
| 8 | San Diego (35%) | at Baltimore (65%) |
| 8 | Tampa Bay (20%) | at Atlanta (80%) |
| 9 | NY Giants (59%) | at Tampa Bay (41%) |
| 9 | Atlanta (57%) | at San Francisco (43%) |
| 9 | Chicago (25%) | at San Diego (75%) |
| 9 | Oakland (29%) | at Pittsburgh (71%) |
| 9 | Jacksonville (27%) | at NY Jets (73%) |
| 9 | Tennessee (20%) | at New Orleans (80%) |
| 9 | Washington (5%) | at New England (95%) |
| 9 | St. Louis (32%) | at Minnesota (68%) |
| 9 | Denver (46%) | at Indianapolis (54%) |
| 9 | Philadelphia (59%) | at Dallas (41%) |
| 9 | Cleveland (33%) | at Cincinnati (67%) |
| 9 | Green Bay (66%) | at Carolina (34%) |
| 9 | Miami (45%) | at Buffalo (55%) |
| 10 | New Orleans (57%) | at Washington (43%) |
| 10 | Carolina (57%) | at Tennessee (43%) |
| 10 | Dallas (62%) | at Tampa Bay (38%) |
| 10 | Chicago (40%) | at St. Louis (60%) |
| 10 | Arizona (22%) | at Seattle (78%) |
| 10 | Cleveland (29%) | at Pittsburgh (71%) |
| 10 | Miami (32%) | at Philadelphia (68%) |
| 10 | Minnesota (58%) | at Oakland (42%) |
| 10 | Buffalo (50%) | at NY Jets (50%) |
| 10 | New England (68%) | at NY Giants (32%) |
| 10 | Detroit (27%) | at Green Bay (73%) |
| 10 | Kansas City (32%) | at Denver (68%) |
| 10 | Houston (36%) | at Cincinnati (64%) |
| 10 | Jacksonville (9%) | at Baltimore (91%) |
| 11 | San Francisco (13%) | at Seattle (87%) |
| 11 | Kansas City (46%) | at San Diego (54%) |
| 11 | Tampa Bay (7%) | at Philadelphia (93%) |
| 11 | Buffalo (25%) | at New England (75%) |
| 11 | Green Bay (62%) | at Minnesota (38%) |
| 11 | Dallas (42%) | at Miami (58%) |
| 11 | Tennessee (42%) | at Jacksonville (58%) |
| 11 | NY Jets (48%) | at Houston (52%) |
| 11 | Oakland (33%) | at Detroit (67%) |
| 11 | Denver (75%) | at Chicago (25%) |
| 11 | Washington (25%) | at Carolina (75%) |
| 11 | St. Louis (19%) | at Baltimore (81%) |
| 11 | Indianapolis (52%) | at Atlanta (48%) |
| 11 | Cincinnati (42%) | at Arizona (58%) |
| 12 | NY Giants (58%) | at Washington (42%) |
| 12 | Oakland (49%) | at Tennessee (51%) |
| 12 | Pittsburgh (23%) | at Seattle (77%) |
| 12 | Arizona (54%) | at San Francisco (46%) |
| 12 | Miami (48%) | at NY Jets (52%) |
| 12 | Buffalo (41%) | at Kansas City (59%) |
| 12 | San Diego (67%) | at Jacksonville (33%) |
| 12 | Tampa Bay (8%) | at Indianapolis (92%) |
| 12 | New Orleans (48%) | at Houston (52%) |
| 12 | Chicago (8%) | at Green Bay (92%) |
| 12 | Philadelphia (57%) | at Detroit (43%) |
| 12 | New England (42%) | at Denver (58%) |
| 12 | Carolina (40%) | at Dallas (60%) |
| 12 | Baltimore (7%) | at Cleveland (3%) |
| 12 | St. Louis (35%) | at Cincinnati (65%) |
| 12 | Minnesota (42%) | at Atlanta (58%) |
| 13 | Dallas (62%) | at Washington (38%) |
| 13 | Jacksonville (44%) | at Tennessee (56%) |
| 13 | Atlanta (65%) | at Tampa Bay (35%) |
| 13 | Arizona (53%) | at St. Louis (47%) |
| 13 | Denver (57%) | at San Diego (43%) |
| 13 | Indianapolis (50%) | at Pittsburgh (50%) |
| 13 | Kansas City (59%) | at Oakland (41%) |
| 13 | NY Jets (47%) | at NY Giants (53%) |
| 13 | Carolina (43%) | at New Orleans (57%) |
| 13 | Philadelphia (42%) | at New England (58%) |
| 13 | Seattle (62%) | at Minnesota (38%) |
| 13 | Baltimore (52%) | at Miami (48%) |
| 13 | Green Bay (64%) | at Detroit (36%) |
| 13 | Cincinnati (53%) | at Cleveland (47%) |
| 13 | San Francisco (45%) | at Chicago (55%) |
| 13 | Houston (37%) | at Buffalo (63%) |
| 14 | New Orleans (57%) | at Tampa Bay (43%) |
| 14 | Detroit (53%) | at St. Louis (47%) |
| 14 | Buffalo (29%) | at Philadelphia (71%) |
| 14 | Tennessee (27%) | at NY Jets (73%) |
| 14 | NY Giants (37%) | at Miami (63%) |
| 14 | San Diego (43%) | at Kansas City (57%) |
| 14 | Indianapolis (82%) | at Jacksonville (18%) |
| 14 | New England (67%) | at Houston (33%) |
| 14 | Dallas (23%) | at Green Bay (77%) |
| 14 | Oakland (15%) | at Denver (85%) |
| 14 | San Francisco (45%) | at Cleveland (55%) |
| 14 | Pittsburgh (48%) | at Cincinnati (52%) |
| 14 | Washington (36%) | at Chicago (64%) |
| 14 | Atlanta (50%) | at Carolina (50%) |
| 14 | Seattle (50%) | at Baltimore (50%) |
| 14 | Minnesota (48%) | at Arizona (52%) |
| 15 | Buffalo (65%) | at Washington (35%) |
| 15 | Tampa Bay (35%) | at St. Louis (65%) |
| 15 | Cleveland (10%) | at Seattle (90%) |
| 15 | Cincinnati (54%) | at San Francisco (46%) |
| 15 | Miami (45%) | at San Diego (55%) |
| 15 | Denver (56%) | at Pittsburgh (44%) |
| 15 | Arizona (27%) | at Philadelphia (73%) |
| 15 | Green Bay (78%) | at Oakland (22%) |
| 15 | Carolina (44%) | at NY Giants (56%) |
| 15 | Detroit (45%) | at New Orleans (55%) |
| 15 | Tennessee (6%) | at New England (94%) |
| 15 | Chicago (32%) | at Minnesota (68%) |
| 15 | Atlanta (66%) | at Jacksonville (34%) |
| 15 | Houston (22%) | at Indianapolis (78%) |
| 15 | NY Jets (40%) | at Dallas (60%) |
| 15 | Kansas City (32%) | at Baltimore (68%) |
| 16 | Houston (55%) | at Tennessee (45%) |
| 16 | Chicago (46%) | at Tampa Bay (54%) |
| 16 | St. Louis (15%) | at Seattle (85%) |
| 16 | Washington (6%) | at Philadelphia (94%) |
| 16 | San Diego (57%) | at Oakland (43%) |
| 16 | New England (68%) | at NY Jets (32%) |
| 16 | Jacksonville (20%) | at New Orleans (80%) |
| 16 | NY Giants (42%) | at Minnesota (58%) |
| 16 | Indianapolis (52%) | at Miami (48%) |
| 16 | Cleveland (27%) | at Kansas City (73%) |
| 16 | San Francisco (34%) | at Detroit (66%) |
| 16 | Cincinnati (23%) | at Denver (77%) |
| 16 | Dallas (40%) | at Buffalo (60%) |
| 16 | Pittsburgh (35%) | at Baltimore (65%) |
| 16 | Carolina (38%) | at Atlanta (62%) |
| 16 | Green Bay (66%) | at Arizona (34%) |
| 17 | St. Louis (45%) | at San Francisco (55%) |
| 17 | Philadelphia (68%) | at NY Giants (32%) |
| 17 | New England (51%) | at Miami (49%) |
| 17 | Oakland (27%) | at Kansas City (73%) |
| 17 | Tennessee (8%) | at Indianapolis (92%) |
| 17 | Jacksonville (34%) | at Houston (66%) |
| 17 | Minnesota (23%) | at Green Bay (77%) |
| 17 | San Diego (28%) | at Denver (72%) |
| 17 | Washington (25%) | at Dallas (75%) |
| 17 | Pittsburgh (57%) | at Cleveland (43%) |
| 17 | Baltimore (54%) | at Cincinnati (46%) |
| 17 | Detroit (58%) | at Chicago (42%) |
| 17 | Tampa Bay (22%) | at Carolina (78%) |
| 17 | NY Jets (38%) | at Buffalo (62%) |
| 17 | New Orleans (38%) | at Atlanta (62%) |
| 17 | Seattle (64%) | at Arizona (36%) |