I’ve scouted the teams in the offseason. I’ve seen them play in the preseason. So I can now take a stab at ordering them 1 thru 32. Packers, Seahawks, Eagles, Broncos, Patriots. Those teams, to me, look like they’re the best. Washington, Tennessee, Tampa Bay and Jacksonville should be bringing up the rear.
I have attached a win-loss record to each team. This is not how I am predicting how they will finish. Instead, that’s how I think they would finish if they played an average, typical schedule. In reality, some teams will play much easier schedules, and thus will finish with better win-loss records. The Saints, Panthers and Texans, for example, will all benefit from playing nine games against South Division teams. I’ve got them projected at 7-8-1, but they’ve got a good chance to go over .500.
On Thursday I’ll post my “All 256”, with a win-loss record for each team after attaching a probability number to all of the regular-season games.
But for pure talent, this is how I rank the teams right now.
NFL POWER RANKINGS | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rk | Team | W | L | T | Pct |
1. | Green Bay | 11 | 4 | 1 | .719 |
2. | Seattle | 11 | 4 | 1 | .719 |
3. | Philadelphia | 11 | 5 | 0 | .688 |
4. | Denver | 11 | 5 | 0 | .688 |
5. | New England | 11 | 5 | 0 | .688 |
6. | Indianapolis | 10 | 5 | 1 | .656 |
7. | Baltimore | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
8. | Kansas City | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
9. | Miami | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
10. | Atlanta | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
11. | Buffalo | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
12. | Pittsburgh | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
13. | Minnesota | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
14. | NY Giants | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
15. | San Diego | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
16. | Cincinnati | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
17. | Detroit | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
18. | Dallas | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
19. | Arizona | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
20. | New Orleans | 7 | 8 | 1 | .469 |
21. | Carolina | 7 | 8 | 1 | .469 |
22. | Houston | 7 | 8 | 1 | .469 |
23. | NY Jets | 7 | 8 | 1 | .469 |
24. | St. Louis | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 |
25. | San Francisco | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 |
26. | Cleveland | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 |
27. | Oakland | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 |
28. | Chicago | 5 | 10 | 1 | .344 |
29. | Jacksonville | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 |
30. | Tampa Bay | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 |
31. | Tennessee | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 |
32. | Washington | 4 | 11 | 1 | .281 |
As usual with this kind of thing, let me know where you think I've gone wrong.
—Ian Allan