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Revised strength of schedule

Scheduling has played a role in Green Bay's passing game struggles

Checking in with the weekly look at Strength of Schedule. I’m doing it a little differently this time. Rather than looking at schedules that are coming up, I’m looking at the 10 games that each team has played. Which teams have played the easiest and hardest schedules so far.

I’ve generated two different charts. The first one is for rushing. It shows the average production allowed by opponents IN THEIR OTHER GAMES. That is, Carolina hasn’t played an easy run schedule just because it’s run for a bunch of yards and touchdowns against its opponents. Instead, I look at the average allowed by those 10 teams in their combined 90 other games so far.

For rushing, the Vikings, Titans and Falcons have played the easiest schedules so far. This might explain some of why Devonta Freeman has been so awesome. And it further clarifies how awful Tennessee is – can’t run the ball even with a really easy schedule.

The Bills, 49ers and Bengals, meanwhile, have played the hardest run schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, RUSHING (Weeks 1-11)
TeamYardsTDRPoints
Minnesota110.8916.3
Tennessee113.8216.2
Atlanta119.6916.0
NY Giants112.7815.9
Green Bay109.8215.8
Denver113.7415.8
NY Jets117.6815.7
Seattle106.8215.6
San Diego113.7015.5
Detroit111.7215.5
Baltimore110.7415.5
Chicago106.8115.5
Tampa Bay107.7715.3
Arizona113.6715.3
Carolina112.6715.2
Oakland110.6815.1
Philadelphia109.6915.0
New Orleans109.6915.0
Dallas112.6315.0
Jacksonville106.7214.9
St. Louis111.6114.8
Pittsburgh107.6814.7
Washington110.6214.7
Kansas City107.6714.7
Houston104.7114.7
Cleveland106.6814.6
Indianapolis100.7714.6
New England109.6214.6
Miami106.6614.6
Cincinnati105.6614.5
San Francisco101.7114.3
Buffalo104.5914.0

Doing the same for passing, I have a contributing factor for why Aaron Rodgers has struggled. The Packers have played the hardest pass schedule so far. That is, in their 90 games against other opponents, the 10 teams that have played against Green Bay have allowed an average of only 247 passing yards, with just over 20 TD passes per 16 games.

The Lions and Bears have also been hampered by seeing good pass defenses. This supports the notion that Jay Cutler has been one of the big surprises this year – playing well despite playing a difficult schedule.

At the other end of the spectrum, for those who drafted Tony Romo and Dez Bryant, this chart just makes it all the more painful that those guys got hurt. Through the first 11 weeks of the season, Dallas’ opponents on average have been the worst in the league against the pass allowing an average of 278 passing yards in their other combined 90 games, with an average of 1.91 TD passes per game. So, over a half touchdown pass more per game than the Packers. Too bad the Cowboys had Brandon Weeden and Matt Cassel out there, so couldn’t take advantage.

The Titans, Jets, Bills and Falcons also have played easy pass schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, PASSING (Weeks 1-11)
TeamYardsTDPPoints
Dallas2781.9139.3
Tennessee2691.9038.3
NY Jets2721.8138.1
Buffalo2761.7438.1
Atlanta2651.9338.1
Washington2691.7637.4
St. Louis2681.7437.2
Denver2671.7637.2
Tampa Bay2661.7737.2
Carolina2641.8037.2
Philadelphia2621.7736.8
New England2641.6836.5
NY Giants2631.6936.5
Pittsburgh2671.6136.4
Jacksonville2571.7136.0
Cincinnati2611.6335.9
Arizona2631.6035.9
Minnesota2651.5435.8
San Diego2601.6235.8
Baltimore2651.5335.7
Miami2541.7035.6
Houston2561.6435.4
San Francisco2641.4435.1
Indianapolis2551.5835.0
Seattle2611.4734.9
New Orleans2511.6434.9
Oakland2551.5434.7
Cleveland2541.5034.4
Kansas City2491.4733.7
Chicago2521.3433.3
Detroit2441.3932.7
Green Bay2471.2732.3

—Ian Allan

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