Fantasy Index

header banner img
OUR FANTASY BASEBALL MAGAZINE IS BACK! PRE-ORDER NOW
Win here.

Scheduletron

Strength of schedule

Time to pick up Jacksonville, Oakland defenses?

Time for the weekly look at schedules. I always like to do the standard wins-loss variety, but I also like to toss in something different. This time around, a look at which defenses project to face the most fantasy friendly offenses in the next month.

With the wins and losses, I’m looking at five games per team. So it’s Weeks 11-15 for most of the NFL. For the four teams with byes this week (Saints, Steelers, Browns, Giants), it’s Weeks 12-16.

And according to data, let’s not toss dirt on the Kansas City grave yet. The team is 4-5, but it’s won three in a row and has the league’s easiest schedule coming up. Next five are against teams that are a combined 15-30 right now.

Other teams with easy schedules: Dolphins, Jaguars and Jets.

When you start factoring in scheduling, meanwhile, it’s becoming more apparent that the winner of the NFC East won’t necessarily have a winning record. The Giants right now lead that division with a 5-5 record, but they have the league’s hardest schedule coming up. The Eagles and Cowboys are also down in that hardest half-dozen, along with some other playoff hopefuls – Atlanta, Minnesota and Houston.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Wins (next 5 games)
TeamWLPct
Kansas City1530.333
Miami1630.348
Jacksonville1629.356
NY Jets1729.370
Baltimore1828.391
Green Bay1926.422
Seattle2027.426
Carolina2126.447
Oakland2124.467
Cleveland2124.467
Cincinnati2225.468
Tampa Bay2224.478
Detroit2224.478
San Diego2223.489
New Orleans2223.489
New England2223.489
Indianapolis2323.500
St. Louis2322.511
Tennessee2421.533
Washington2521.543
San Francisco2521.543
Denver2521.543
Pittsburgh2520.556
Buffalo2520.556
Arizona2619.578
Houston2719.587
Philadelphia2718.600
Minnesota2718.600
Chicago2718.600
Atlanta2718.600
Dallas2817.622
NY Giants2916.644

As the remaining schedule gets smaller, it starts making more sense to look not only at players but who they will be playing against. Definitely a factor for defenses, with some opponents simply not giving up many sacks and or turning the ball over.

On this following chart, I’m looking at sacks and turnovers. That is, which teams are playing opponents who are tending to turn the ball over and allow sacks. I’m leaving touchdowns, safeties and special teams out of it. The “Fantasy” you see reflects only a tabulation of the previous two columns, with 2 points for takeaways and 1 point for safeties.

Using this data, it looks like the Jaguars, Raiders, Patriots and Chargers should play better in the upcoming weeks than they have so far.

The Cowboys, Cardinals, Broncos and Washington, on average, will play offenses that have been better at avoiding mistakes.

Not saying that those with the Denver and Arizona defenses should release them. Just pointing out that the upcoming schedule indicates a downturn could be coming.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Defenses (next 5 games)
TeamTurnoversSacksFantasy
Jacksonville9.412.731.6
Oakland8.113.629.8
New England8.612.429.6
San Diego6.915.028.8
Baltimore6.815.228.7
New Orleans8.411.628.4
Atlanta7.911.727.4
Seattle7.013.527.4
Pittsburgh8.210.927.3
San Francisco7.612.227.3
Philadelphia8.011.127.1
Cincinnati7.512.027.1
NY Jets7.312.226.8
Tampa Bay8.59.726.7
Indianapolis7.611.326.6
St. Louis8.89.026.6
Green Bay7.910.626.3
Tennessee7.611.026.1
Houston7.610.826.0
Kansas City7.710.726.0
Cleveland5.913.425.2
Minnesota6.711.324.7
Chicago6.311.724.3
NY Giants7.010.224.2
Carolina7.49.324.1
Buffalo6.311.324.0
Miami7.68.823.9
Detroit7.19.623.9
Washington6.410.523.4
Denver6.610.123.3
Arizona6.210.923.3
Dallas6.79.923.2

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index