Time for the weekly look at schedules. I always like to do the standard wins-loss variety, but I also like to toss in something different. This time around, a look at which defenses project to face the most fantasy friendly offenses in the next month.
With the wins and losses, I’m looking at five games per team. So it’s Weeks 11-15 for most of the NFL. For the four teams with byes this week (Saints, Steelers, Browns, Giants), it’s Weeks 12-16.
And according to data, let’s not toss dirt on the Kansas City grave yet. The team is 4-5, but it’s won three in a row and has the league’s easiest schedule coming up. Next five are against teams that are a combined 15-30 right now.
Other teams with easy schedules: Dolphins, Jaguars and Jets.
When you start factoring in scheduling, meanwhile, it’s becoming more apparent that the winner of the NFC East won’t necessarily have a winning record. The Giants right now lead that division with a 5-5 record, but they have the league’s hardest schedule coming up. The Eagles and Cowboys are also down in that hardest half-dozen, along with some other playoff hopefuls – Atlanta, Minnesota and Houston.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Wins (next 5 games) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | Pct |
Kansas City | 15 | 30 | .333 |
Miami | 16 | 30 | .348 |
Jacksonville | 16 | 29 | .356 |
NY Jets | 17 | 29 | .370 |
Baltimore | 18 | 28 | .391 |
Green Bay | 19 | 26 | .422 |
Seattle | 20 | 27 | .426 |
Carolina | 21 | 26 | .447 |
Oakland | 21 | 24 | .467 |
Cleveland | 21 | 24 | .467 |
Cincinnati | 22 | 25 | .468 |
Tampa Bay | 22 | 24 | .478 |
Detroit | 22 | 24 | .478 |
San Diego | 22 | 23 | .489 |
New Orleans | 22 | 23 | .489 |
New England | 22 | 23 | .489 |
Indianapolis | 23 | 23 | .500 |
St. Louis | 23 | 22 | .511 |
Tennessee | 24 | 21 | .533 |
Washington | 25 | 21 | .543 |
San Francisco | 25 | 21 | .543 |
Denver | 25 | 21 | .543 |
Pittsburgh | 25 | 20 | .556 |
Buffalo | 25 | 20 | .556 |
Arizona | 26 | 19 | .578 |
Houston | 27 | 19 | .587 |
Philadelphia | 27 | 18 | .600 |
Minnesota | 27 | 18 | .600 |
Chicago | 27 | 18 | .600 |
Atlanta | 27 | 18 | .600 |
Dallas | 28 | 17 | .622 |
NY Giants | 29 | 16 | .644 |
As the remaining schedule gets smaller, it starts making more sense to look not only at players but who they will be playing against. Definitely a factor for defenses, with some opponents simply not giving up many sacks and or turning the ball over.
On this following chart, I’m looking at sacks and turnovers. That is, which teams are playing opponents who are tending to turn the ball over and allow sacks. I’m leaving touchdowns, safeties and special teams out of it. The “Fantasy” you see reflects only a tabulation of the previous two columns, with 2 points for takeaways and 1 point for safeties.
Using this data, it looks like the Jaguars, Raiders, Patriots and Chargers should play better in the upcoming weeks than they have so far.
The Cowboys, Cardinals, Broncos and Washington, on average, will play offenses that have been better at avoiding mistakes.
Not saying that those with the Denver and Arizona defenses should release them. Just pointing out that the upcoming schedule indicates a downturn could be coming.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Defenses (next 5 games) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Turnovers | Sacks | Fantasy |
Jacksonville | 9.4 | 12.7 | 31.6 |
Oakland | 8.1 | 13.6 | 29.8 |
New England | 8.6 | 12.4 | 29.6 |
San Diego | 6.9 | 15.0 | 28.8 |
Baltimore | 6.8 | 15.2 | 28.7 |
New Orleans | 8.4 | 11.6 | 28.4 |
Atlanta | 7.9 | 11.7 | 27.4 |
Seattle | 7.0 | 13.5 | 27.4 |
Pittsburgh | 8.2 | 10.9 | 27.3 |
San Francisco | 7.6 | 12.2 | 27.3 |
Philadelphia | 8.0 | 11.1 | 27.1 |
Cincinnati | 7.5 | 12.0 | 27.1 |
NY Jets | 7.3 | 12.2 | 26.8 |
Tampa Bay | 8.5 | 9.7 | 26.7 |
Indianapolis | 7.6 | 11.3 | 26.6 |
St. Louis | 8.8 | 9.0 | 26.6 |
Green Bay | 7.9 | 10.6 | 26.3 |
Tennessee | 7.6 | 11.0 | 26.1 |
Houston | 7.6 | 10.8 | 26.0 |
Kansas City | 7.7 | 10.7 | 26.0 |
Cleveland | 5.9 | 13.4 | 25.2 |
Minnesota | 6.7 | 11.3 | 24.7 |
Chicago | 6.3 | 11.7 | 24.3 |
NY Giants | 7.0 | 10.2 | 24.2 |
Carolina | 7.4 | 9.3 | 24.1 |
Buffalo | 6.3 | 11.3 | 24.0 |
Miami | 7.6 | 8.8 | 23.9 |
Detroit | 7.1 | 9.6 | 23.9 |
Washington | 6.4 | 10.5 | 23.4 |
Denver | 6.6 | 10.1 | 23.3 |
Arizona | 6.2 | 10.9 | 23.3 |
Dallas | 6.7 | 9.9 | 23.2 |
—Ian Allan