Restricted free agent C.J. Anderson has signed an offer sheet with the Dolphins, and Denver now has four more days in which to match the deal and keep him, or not match and let him walk. Which outcome is better for Anderson's fantasy value?
I have him in a dynasty league, and it wasn't at all surprising that Anderson drew some interest after Denver inexplicably tendered him at the lowest level. Since he's an undrafted free agent, the Broncos get no compensation if he departs. Had Denver tendered him at the second-round level -- a difference of roughly $900,000 -- the Broncos would have received a second-round pick if Anderson signed elsewhere.
Most likely, no one would have paid that price for him, although the Dolphins do have a history of giving up second-round picks rather freely, so you never know. A.J. Feeley, Daunte Culpepper, and...
At first I thought Anderson would be better off staying in Denver. But now I am not so sure. Denver inexplicably kept giving Ronnie Hillman chances deep into the playoffs despite Anderson being much better the second half of the season. That coaching staff remains, so maybe they'll continue to underuse Anderson, even if Hillman signs elsewhere. Meanwhile, the Miami coaching staff that underused Lamar Miller in the past is gone. In is Adam Gase, for whom Anderson was a workhorse in Denver the second half of the 2014 season.
Miami has Jay Ajayi, a second year back with potential -- more than anyone currently on Denver's roster. But Miami's investment in Anderson suggests Ajayi will be the clear backup. Matt Forte first and then Jeremy Langford when Forte got hurt got sizable workloads in Chicago under Gase last year.
It's fashionable to take shots at Super Bowl winners. They've got the trophy, so maybe they know what they're doing. Miami has mismanaged its offseason for years, and I don't get the Mario Williams-Olivier Vernon exchange. Mike Tannenbaum, who made several missteps with the Jets, seems to be doing some of the same things in Miami.
But fantasy wise, Anderson's chances of being a three-down type of back look a little better in Miami. In Denver it's not clear that they want him, want to use him, and will put him in his best position to succeed.
Longtime readers may be aware my son is a Broncos fan. I am having a hard time explaining to him what the Broncos are doing this offseason. The sheer indefensibility of losing Anderson has me thinking they will match.
--Andy Richardson
