Three teams last year attempted 40-plus field goals. The Ravens (with Justin Tucker) and the Steelers and Bucs, using multiple kickers. But is attempting a bunch of field goals in a season a useful indicator in forecasting how many attempts a kicker might get in an upcoming season?
Not really.
In this century, 18 other teams have attempted at least 40 field goals in a season. Only seven of those teams came back the next year and again tried 35-plus field goals. An almost equal number of teams (six) didn’t attempt more than 30.
Overall, these teams attempted (on average) 32.8 field goals in their next season, which is just slightly above average.
Similarly, of the 21 teams that have attempted 40-plus field goals in this century, they averaged 31.8 field goals in the season prior to their big year.
The Steelers in particular tried a league-high 42 field goals last year, but they finished with 31-32 attempts in each of their four previous seasons.
I’m not of the opinion that it’s just luck with kickers. I expect Pittsburgh will be a top-5 kicking team on my board. That’s a good team with a good offense, which are the indicators I tend to focus on more. With the Bears and Bucs, they look more like ordinary-type teams that just happened to come in a little high on field goal attempts last year.
In my opinion, building your draft strategy around duplicating attempts numbers isn’t the way to go.
| TEAMS WITH 40-PLUS FIELD GOAL ATTEMPTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | FGA | Prev | Next Yr |
| 2001 | Pittsburgh | 44 | 30 | 40 |
| 2001 | San Diego | 43 | 25 | 26 |
| 2002 | Pittsburgh | 40 | 44 | 32 |
| 2002 | Atlanta | 40 | 37 | 27 |
| 2003 | Baltimore | 40 | 26 | 32 |
| 2003 | St. Louis | 42 | 25 | 24 |
| 2005 | Arizona | 45 | 29 | 30 |
| 2005 | NY Giants | 42 | 28 | 27 |
| 2008 | Philadelphia | 40 | 32 | 37 |
| 2008 | New England | 40 | 24 | 31 |
| 2010 | Miami | 41 | 28 | 39 |
| 2010 | Oakland | 41 | 29 | 35 |
| 2011 | San Francisco | 52 | 27 | 42 |
| 2011 | Washington | 41 | 35 | 30 |
| 2012 | San Francisco | 42 | 52 | 36 |
| 2013 | New England | 41 | 35 | 37 |
| 2013 | Baltimore | 41 | 33 | 34 |
| 2013 | Indianapolis | 40 | 33 | 31 |
| 2015 | Pittsburgh | 42 | 32 | ? |
| 2015 | Tampa Bay | 40 | 24 | ? |
| 2015 | Baltimore | 40 | 34 | ? |
| --- | Average | 41.9 | 31.8 | 32.8 |
—Ian Allan