When you use a first-round pick on a running back, can you count on that guy coming in and doing what he’s supposed to do – lift your fantasy team to greatness? It’s not as easy as you might think. Injuries, scheme changes, age: numbers suggest you’re about as likely to miss as hit with those picks.
It was particularly ugly last year. DeMarco Murray and Marshawn Lynch underperformed. LeVeon Bell, Jamaal Charles and Arian Foster got hurt. Eddie Lacy got fat. Even a couple of the backs who put up top-10 type numbers for the second year in a row didn’t have great year – Matt Forte and Jeremy Hill.
It’s a tough position.
In an effort to express this numerically, I have taken the top 10 running backs of each of the last 10 years. That’s using standard fantasy scoring – 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards (run/rec). Those are the guys, in a general sense, who tend to get selected in the first and second rounds of fantasy drafts the next year.
Then I tracked how those guys did in their followup seasons.
Turns out that only 22 of those 100 running backs put up top-5 numbers the next season. Of, if you look at it from the other direction, 78 percent of running backs putting up top-5 numbers are guys who weren’t in the top 10 the previous season.
To me, this means you shouldn’t be shy about being aggressive with your picks. If you’ve got a running back that you think is going to be a breakout guy – a player who was perhaps the 22nd-best running back the previous season – you should follow your instincts/research and strongly go after said player.
There are an even 100 players in this study (which includes one mulligan-type guy, Tiki Barber, who retired after a big season in 2006). Of the 100, only 38 returned to rank in the top 10 the next year. The exact same number (38) didn’t even rank in the top 20.
On the clunky chart here, I’ve got top-10 guys with a black dot in front of their name. Double dots if they’re in the top 5. If a guy isn’t in the top 20 (which we can call a “miss”, for fantasy purposes) I’ve got his name in bold.
They’re listed in chronological order, with their 1-10 rank from the previous year.
Lots of numbers, of course, but point is that running back is a very fluid position. Lots of change.
HOW TOP 10 BACKS HAVE FARED | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Prev Yr | Yards | TD | Rank |
2006 | Shaun Alexander | 1 | 944 | 7 | 25 |
2006 | •• Larry Johnson | 2 | 2,199 | 19 | 2 |
2006 | •• LaDainian Tomlinson | 3 | 2,323 | 31 | 1 |
2006 | • Tiki Barber | 4 | 2,127 | 5 | 7 |
2006 | Edgerrin James | 5 | 1,376 | 6 | 17 |
2006 | Clinton Portis | 6 | 693 | 7 | 30 |
2006 | • Rudi Johnson | 7 | 1,433 | 12 | 8 |
2006 | LaMont Jordan | 8 | 508 | 2 | 43 |
2006 | Thomas Jones | 9 | 1,364 | 6 | 19 |
2006 | Mike Anderson | 10 | 237 | 1 | 54 |
2007 | •• LaDainian Tomlinson | 1 | 1,949 | 18 | 1 |
2007 | Larry Johnson | 2 | 745 | 4 | 34 |
2007 | Steven Jackson | 3 | 1,273 | 6 | 11 |
2007 | • Frank Gore | 4 | 1,538 | 6 | 8 |
2007 | Willie Parker | 5 | 1,480 | 2 | 13 |
2007 | •• Brian Westbrook | 6 | 2,104 | 12 | 2 |
2007 | Tiki Barber | 7 | 0 | 0 | -- |
2007 | • Maurice Jones-Drew | 8 | 1,175 | 10 | 10 |
2007 | Rudi Johnson | 9 | 607 | 4 | 41 |
2007 | Deuce McAllister | 10 | 107 | 0 | 73 |
2008 | •• LaDainian Tomlinson | 1 | 1,536 | 12 | 5 |
2008 | • Brian Westbrook | 2 | 1,338 | 14 | 8 |
2008 | •• Adrian Peterson | 3 | 1,885 | 10 | 3 |
2008 | Joseph Addai | 4 | 750 | 7 | 31 |
2008 | • Clinton Portis | 5 | 1,705 | 9 | 6 |
2008 | Jamal Lewis | 6 | 1,180 | 4 | 19 |
2008 | Marion Barber | 7 | 1,302 | 9 | 13 |
2008 | Willis McGahee | 8 | 844 | 7 | 27 |
2008 | • Frank Gore | 9 | 1,409 | 8 | 10 |
2008 | Edgerrin James | 10 | 599 | 3 | 42 |
2009 | DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 1,369 | 7 | 13 |
2009 | Michael Turner | 2 | 906 | 10 | 20 |
2009 | •• Adrian Peterson | 3 | 1,819 | 18 | 2 |
2009 | Matt Forte | 4 | 1,400 | 4 | 16 |
2009 | • Thomas Jones | 5 | 1,460 | 14 | 6 |
2009 | Steve Slaton | 6 | 854 | 7 | 29 |
2009 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 7 | 884 | 12 | 17 |
2009 | Clinton Portis | 8 | 551 | 2 | 46 |
2009 | •• Maurice Jones-Drew | 9 | 1,765 | 16 | 3 |
2009 | Brian Westbrook | 10 | 455 | 2 | 52 |
2010 | •• Chris Johnson | 1 | 1,609 | 12 | 4 |
2010 | •• Adrian Peterson | 2 | 1,639 | 13 | 2 |
2010 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 3 | 1,641 | 7 | 11 |
2010 | • Ray Rice | 4 | 1,776 | 6 | 10 |
2010 | Frank Gore | 5 | 1,305 | 5 | 19 |
2010 | Thomas Jones | 6 | 1,018 | 6 | 22 |
2010 | Ricky Williams | 7 | 814 | 3 | 31 |
2010 | Ryan Grant | 8 | 45 | 0 | 76 |
2010 | Joseph Addai | 9 | 619 | 4 | 37 |
2010 | Steven Jackson | 10 | 1,624 | 6 | 13 |
2011 | •• Arian Foster | 1 | 1,841 | 12 | 4 |
2011 | Peyton Hillis | 2 | 717 | 3 | 36 |
2011 | • Adrian Peterson | 3 | 1,109 | 13 | 9 |
2011 | Jamaal Charles | 4 | 92 | 1 | 75 |
2011 | Chris Johnson | 5 | 1,465 | 4 | 16 |
2011 | Darren McFadden | 6 | 768 | 5 | 31 |
2011 | Rashard Mendenhall | 7 | 1,082 | 9 | 19 |
2011 | •• LeSean McCoy | 8 | 1,624 | 20 | 2 |
2011 | • Michael Turner | 9 | 1,508 | 11 | 6 |
2011 | Matt Forte | 10 | 1,487 | 4 | 15 |
2012 | •• Ray Rice | 1 | 1,621 | 10 | 4 |
2012 | LeSean McCoy | 2 | 1,213 | 5 | 16 |
2012 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 3 | 500 | 2 | 38 |
2012 | •• Arian Foster | 4 | 1,641 | 17 | 2 |
2012 | •• Marshawn Lynch | 5 | 1,786 | 12 | 3 |
2012 | Michael Turner | 6 | 928 | 11 | 14 |
2012 | Darren Sproles | 7 | 911 | 8 | 17 |
2012 | Ryan Mathews | 8 | 959 | 1 | 23 |
2012 | •• Adrian Peterson | 9 | 2,314 | 13 | 1 |
2012 | Michael Bush | 10 | 494 | 5 | 33 |
2013 | • Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1,437 | 11 | 6 |
2013 | Arian Foster | 2 | 725 | 2 | 38 |
2013 | Doug Martin | 3 | 522 | 1 | 49 |
2013 | •• Marshawn Lynch | 4 | 1,573 | 14 | 4 |
2013 | Alfred Morris | 5 | 1,353 | 7 | 13 |
2013 | Ray Rice | 6 | 981 | 4 | 22 |
2013 | C.J. Spiller | 7 | 1,118 | 2 | 23 |
2013 | •• Jamaal Charles | 8 | 1,980 | 19 | 1 |
2013 | Frank Gore | 9 | 1,269 | 9 | 12 |
2013 | Trent Richardson | 10 | 879 | 4 | 30 |
2014 | • Jamaal Charles | 1 | 1,324 | 14 | 7 |
2014 | • LeSean McCoy | 2 | 1,474 | 5 | 10 |
2014 | •• Matt Forte | 3 | 1,846 | 10 | 4 |
2014 | •• Marshawn Lynch | 4 | 1,673 | 17 | 3 |
2014 | Knowshon Moreno | 5 | 156 | 1 | 66 |
2014 | Adrian Peterson | 6 | 93 | 0 | 77 |
2014 | • Eddie Lacy | 7 | 1,566 | 13 | 6 |
2014 | •• DeMarco Murray | 8 | 2,261 | 13 | 1 |
2014 | Chris Johnson | 9 | 814 | 2 | 27 |
2014 | Reggie Bush | 10 | 550 | 2 | 37 |
2015 | DeMarco Murray | 1 | 1,024 | 7 | 15 |
2015 | LeVeon Bell | 2 | 692 | 3 | 33 |
2015 | Marshawn Lynch | 3 | 497 | 3 | 38 |
2015 | • Matt Forte | 4 | 1,287 | 7 | 7 |
2015 | Arian Foster | 5 | 390 | 3 | 45 |
2015 | Eddie Lacy | 6 | 946 | 5 | 21 |
2015 | Jamaal Charles | 7 | 541 | 5 | 35 |
2015 | Justin Forsett | 8 | 794 | 2 | 31 |
2015 | •• Lamar Miller | 9 | 1,269 | 10 | 5 |
2015 | Jeremy Hill | 10 | 873 | 12 | 11 |