My gut tends to tell me that wide receivers are “safer” choices than running backs. That is, when you’re sitting in the middle of the first round, the better route is to go with a pass catcher rather than a runner – take the guy that you know will be good. Julio Jones and Antonio Brown, for example, were great last year, and everybody knew they were going to be great. Why take a flyer on a hit-or-miss running back, when you can definitely fortify your offense with a pass-catching monster.
Yesterday I posted the chart showing that of the last 100 top-10 running backs (over 10 years) just as many finished outside the top 20 the following year as landed in the top 10 again.
With that in mind, I figured I’d put together the same chart for wide receivers, showing how they compared. My expectation was that they’d be at least a little bit more solid.
But the results surprised me. Turns out there’s also a surprising amount of misses with the so-called top tier wide receivers.
I was aware that busts and injuries occur. Julio Jones, for example, broke his foot a few years ago. Last year Jordy Nelson and Dez Bryant got torpedoed by injuries. But I figured wide receivers would be more steady.
Not really the case.
Of the last 100 top-10 wide receivers (using 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards) 38 didn’t even finish in the top 20 the next year. That’s the exact same number as the running backs.
Of those hot 100, only 21 in their next season finished in the top 5. That’s one fewer than with the running backs. And repeating for emphasis: If you want a top-5 receiver, over 80 percent of those guys in their previous season did not rank in the top 10.
Of the previous hot 100 receivers, 37 in their next season ranked in the top 10. That’s almost identical with running backs (which had 38).
I still like the idea of choosing a receiver that I think is a can’t-miss prospect, but I may need to head back to the drawing board and fine-tune my overall rule of thumb a little.
Here are the top 100 receivers from the last 10 years, with their stats for the following season. I’m formatting them exactly as I did the running backs yesterday. If a player ranked outside the top 20, his name is in bold. If he’s in the top 10, he gets a black dot in front of his name. If he’s in the 5, he’s got two dots.
TOP-10 WIDE RECEIVERS IN THEIR NEXT SEASON | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Prev Yr | Yards | TD | Rank |
2006 | • Steve Smith Sr. | 1 | 1,227 | 9 | 8 |
2006 | Larry Fitzgerald | 2 | 946 | 6 | 22 |
2006 | Anquan Boldin | 3 | 1,231 | 4 | 16 |
2006 | Santana Moss | 4 | 872 | 6 | 24 |
2006 | • Torry Holt | 5 | 1,188 | 10 | 6 |
2006 | •• Chad Johnson | 6 | 1,393 | 7 | 4 |
2006 | Joey Galloway | 7 | 1,066 | 7 | 14 |
2006 | Chris Chambers | 8 | 772 | 4 | 36 |
2006 | •• Marvin Harrison | 9 | 1,366 | 12 | 1 |
2006 | Terry Glenn | 10 | 1,058 | 6 | 18 |
2007 | Marvin Harrison | 1 | 247 | 1 | 89 |
2007 | •• Terrell Owens | 2 | 1,360 | 15 | 2 |
2007 | •• Reggie Wayne | 3 | 1,514 | 10 | 4 |
2007 | • Chad Johnson | 4 | 1,487 | 8 | 6 |
2007 | Donald Driver | 5 | 1,052 | 2 | 30 |
2007 | Torry Holt | 6 | 1,189 | 7 | 13 |
2007 | Lee Evans | 7 | 849 | 5 | 31 |
2007 | Steve Smith Sr. | 8 | 1,068 | 7 | 17 |
2007 | Javon Walker | 9 | 284 | 0 | 94 |
2007 | Roy Williams | 10 | 837 | 5 | 32 |
2008 | • Randy Moss | 1 | 1,008 | 11 | 9 |
2008 | • Terrell Owens | 2 | 1,085 | 10 | 8 |
2008 | Braylon Edwards | 3 | 873 | 3 | 31 |
2008 | Reggie Wayne | 4 | 1,145 | 6 | 14 |
2008 | •• Larry Fitzgerald | 5 | 1,431 | 12 | 1 |
2008 | Chad Johnson | 6 | 540 | 4 | 47 |
2008 | T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 7 | 913 | 4 | 28 |
2008 | Marques Colston | 8 | 760 | 5 | 32 |
2008 | • Brandon Marshall | 9 | 1,261 | 6 | 10 |
2008 | Plaxico Burress | 10 | 454 | 4 | 55 |
2009 | •• Larry Fitzgerald | 1 | 1,092 | 13 | 5 |
2009 | Calvin Johnson | 2 | 1,057 | 5 | 22 |
2009 | •• Andre Johnson | 3 | 1,569 | 9 | 1 |
2009 | Greg Jennings | 4 | 1,113 | 4 | 21 |
2009 | Steve Smith Sr. | 5 | 1,004 | 7 | 18 |
2009 | • Roddy White | 6 | 1,155 | 11 | 7 |
2009 | Anquan Boldin | 7 | 1,036 | 5 | 23 |
2009 | Antonio Bryant | 8 | 600 | 4 | 46 |
2009 | Terrell Owens | 9 | 883 | 6 | 24 |
2009 | •• Randy Moss | 10 | 1,264 | 13 | 2 |
2010 | • Andre Johnson | 1 | 1,226 | 8 | 9 |
2010 | Randy Moss | 2 | 393 | 5 | 61 |
2010 | DeSean Jackson | 3 | 1,160 | 8 | 11 |
2010 | Miles Austin | 4 | 1,134 | 8 | 12 |
2010 | Larry Fitzgerald | 5 | 1,137 | 6 | 15 |
2010 | • Reggie Wayne | 6 | 1,355 | 6 | 7 |
2010 | •• Roddy White | 7 | 1,392 | 10 | 3 |
2010 | Sidney Rice | 8 | 280 | 2 | 81 |
2010 | Brandon Marshall | 9 | 1,017 | 3 | 28 |
2010 | Vincent Jackson | 10 | 262 | 3 | 77 |
2011 | Brandon Lloyd | 1 | 966 | 5 | 21 |
2011 | Dwayne Bowe | 2 | 1,171 | 5 | 17 |
2011 | • Roddy White | 3 | 1,296 | 8 | 7 |
2011 | Greg Jennings | 4 | 949 | 9 | 15 |
2011 | • Mike Wallace | 5 | 1,250 | 8 | 8 |
2011 | •• Calvin Johnson | 6 | 1,692 | 16 | 1 |
2011 | Reggie Wayne | 7 | 960 | 4 | 25 |
2011 | Hakeem Nicks | 8 | 1,192 | 7 | 11 |
2011 | Andre Johnson | 9 | 500 | 2 | 60 |
2011 | Stevie Johnson | 10 | 1,004 | 7 | 18 |
2012 | •• Calvin Johnson | 1 | 1,964 | 5 | 1 |
2012 | Jordy Nelson | 2 | 745 | 7 | 28 |
2012 | Wes Welker | 3 | 1,374 | 6 | 12 |
2012 | Victor Cruz | 4 | 1,092 | 10 | 13 |
2012 | Larry Fitzgerald | 5 | 798 | 4 | 40 |
2012 | Steve Smith Sr. | 6 | 1,201 | 4 | 19 |
2012 | Percy Harvin | 7 | 773 | 5 | 38 |
2012 | • Roddy White | 8 | 1,351 | 7 | 10 |
2012 | Mike Wallace | 9 | 843 | 8 | 24 |
2012 | • Vincent Jackson | 10 | 1,384 | 8 | 6 |
2013 | •• Calvin Johnson | 1 | 1,492 | 12 | 3 |
2013 | •• Brandon Marshall | 2 | 1,295 | 12 | 5 |
2013 | • Dez Bryant | 3 | 1,234 | 13 | 7 |
2013 | •• A.J. Green | 4 | 1,426 | 11 | 4 |
2013 | •• Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 1,430 | 14 | 2 |
2013 | Vincent Jackson | 6 | 1,224 | 7 | 14 |
2013 | • Eric Decker | 7 | 1,288 | 11 | 9 |
2013 | Andre Johnson | 8 | 1,407 | 5 | 12 |
2013 | Julio Jones | 9 | 587 | 2 | 55 |
2013 | Roddy White | 10 | 711 | 3 | 47 |
2014 | Josh Gordon | 1 | 303 | 0 | 82 |
2014 | •• Demaryius Thomas | 2 | 1,619 | 11 | 2 |
2014 | Calvin Johnson | 3 | 1,077 | 8 | 12 |
2014 | A.J. Green | 4 | 1,043 | 6 | 17 |
2014 | Brandon Marshall | 5 | 721 | 8 | 27 |
2014 | •• Antonio Brown | 6 | 1,711 | 14 | 1 |
2014 | •• Dez Bryant | 7 | 1,320 | 16 | 4 |
2014 | • Alshon Jeffery | 8 | 1,166 | 10 | 9 |
2014 | Eric Decker | 9 | 962 | 5 | 22 |
2014 | DeSean Jackson | 10 | 1,176 | 6 | 13 |
2015 | •• Antonio Brown | 1 | 1,862 | 11 | 1 |
2015 | Demaryius Thomas | 2 | 1,304 | 6 | 13 |
2015 | Jordy Nelson | 3 | 0 | 0 | --- |
2015 | Dez Bryant | 4 | 401 | 3 | 64 |
2015 | Randall Cobb | 5 | 879 | 7 | 27 |
2015 | •• Odell Beckham Jr. | 6 | 1,453 | 13 | 5 |
2015 | Emmanuel Sanders | 7 | 1,164 | 6 | 18 |
2015 | •• Julio Jones | 8 | 1,871 | 9 | 2 |
2015 | Jeremy Maclin | 9 | 1,102 | 8 | 17 |
2015 | T.Y. Hilton | 10 | 1,124 | 5 | 23 |