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Factoid

Rushing offenses

How often do vastly improved running games keep it up?

Three offenses put together remarkably better running games last year. The Bills, Buccaneers and Cardinals all ran for over 600 more yards than they had in their previous seasons. Does this mean this offenses can be considered changed? Or are they more likely to slide back to how they performed in the past?

Nice thing about the NFL is we have access to lots of reliable historical data. So we can plug in scenarios and see how they’ve played out in the past.

In this case, 55 times in the last 20 years, an offense has entered a season having improved by over 500 yards running the football. We can then look at which direction those teams have gone.

Turns out over 90 percent of these offenses then declined in the followup season. That is, of the 55 new-and-improved offenses, 50 of them ran for fewer yards in their next season. Average decline: 330 yards, which is more than half of the yards they gained during their breakout seasons.

So setting aside schemes, personnel, scheduling and whatnot – looking at just the numbers – it would be reasonable to expect Arizona, Buffalo and Tampa Bay to all run for fewer yards in 2016 than they did last year. Will be a major surprise if more than one of these offenses can run for as many yards.

That’s certainly the case with Buffalo and Tampa Bay. With the Bills, Tyrod Taylor is a huge part of their running game, and it will be tough to keep him healthy. With the Bucs, they’re likely ready to start shifting more of the offensive load to the passing game, now that Jameis Winston has a year under his belt.

RUN OFFENSES IMPROVING BY 500 YARDS (the next year)
YearTeamRushingNext YrImprove?
1995Denver1,9952,362367
1995New England1,8661,468-398
1995Washington1,9561,910-46
1997Detroit2,4641,955-509
1998San Francisco2,5442,095-449
1999Kansas City2,0821,465-617
1999St. Louis2,0591,843-216
2000NY Giants2,0091,777-232
2000Detroit1,7471,398-349
2001Atlanta1,7622,368606
2001San Diego1,6952,137442
2001Kansas City2,0082,378370
2001NY Jets2,0541,618-436
2001Pittsburgh2,7742,120-654
2002Minnesota2,5072,343-164
2002Atlanta2,3681,949-419
2002Miami2,5021,817-685
2003Carolina2,0911,582-509
2003Baltimore2,6742,063-611
2003Green Bay2,5581,908-650
2004Atlanta2,6722,546-126
2004Pittsburgh2,4642,223-241
2004New England2,1341,512-622
2004NY Jets2,3881,328-1,060
2005Miami1,8981,673-225
2006Philadelphia1,9841,974-10
2006Jacksonville2,5412,391-150
2006San Diego2,5782,039-539
2006Tennessee2,2142,109-105
2007Oakland2,0861,987-99
2007Cleveland1,8951,605-290
2007Minnesota2,6342,332-302
2008Kansas City1,8101,929119
2008Carolina2,4372,49861
2008Baltimore2,3762,200-176
2008Atlanta2,4431,876-567
2009NY Jets2,7562,374-382
2009Cincinnati2,0561,522-534
2009New Orleans2,1061,519-587
2010Houston2,0422,448406
2010Philadelphia2,3242,276-48
2010Oakland2,4942,110-384
2010Kansas City2,6271,893-734
2011Carolina2,4082,088-320
2011New Orleans2,1271,577-550
2011Denver2,6321,832-800
2012Kansas City2,3952,056-339
2012Seattle2,5792,188-391
2012Washington2,7092,164-545
2013Philadelphia2,5661,992-574
2013San Diego1,9651,367-598
2013Oakland2,0001,240-760
2014Dallas2,3541,890-464
2014Baltimore2,0191,478-541
2014Seattle2,7622,268-494
2015Arizona1,917??
2015Buffalo2,432??
2015Tampa Bay2,162??

—Ian Allan

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