Three offenses put together remarkably better running games last year. The Bills, Buccaneers and Cardinals all ran for over 600 more yards than they had in their previous seasons. Does this mean this offenses can be considered changed? Or are they more likely to slide back to how they performed in the past?
Nice thing about the NFL is we have access to lots of reliable historical data. So we can plug in scenarios and see how they’ve played out in the past.
In this case, 55 times in the last 20 years, an offense has entered a season having improved by over 500 yards running the football. We can then look at which direction those teams have gone.
Turns out over 90 percent of these offenses then declined in the followup season. That is, of the 55 new-and-improved offenses, 50 of them ran for fewer yards in their next season. Average decline: 330 yards, which is more than half of the yards they gained during their breakout seasons.
So setting aside schemes, personnel, scheduling and whatnot – looking at just the numbers – it would be reasonable to expect Arizona, Buffalo and Tampa Bay to all run for fewer yards in 2016 than they did last year. Will be a major surprise if more than one of these offenses can run for as many yards.
That’s certainly the case with Buffalo and Tampa Bay. With the Bills, Tyrod Taylor is a huge part of their running game, and it will be tough to keep him healthy. With the Bucs, they’re likely ready to start shifting more of the offensive load to the passing game, now that Jameis Winston has a year under his belt.
RUN OFFENSES IMPROVING BY 500 YARDS (the next year) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Rushing | Next Yr | Improve? |
1995 | Denver | 1,995 | 2,362 | 367 |
1995 | New England | 1,866 | 1,468 | -398 |
1995 | Washington | 1,956 | 1,910 | -46 |
1997 | Detroit | 2,464 | 1,955 | -509 |
1998 | San Francisco | 2,544 | 2,095 | -449 |
1999 | Kansas City | 2,082 | 1,465 | -617 |
1999 | St. Louis | 2,059 | 1,843 | -216 |
2000 | NY Giants | 2,009 | 1,777 | -232 |
2000 | Detroit | 1,747 | 1,398 | -349 |
2001 | Atlanta | 1,762 | 2,368 | 606 |
2001 | San Diego | 1,695 | 2,137 | 442 |
2001 | Kansas City | 2,008 | 2,378 | 370 |
2001 | NY Jets | 2,054 | 1,618 | -436 |
2001 | Pittsburgh | 2,774 | 2,120 | -654 |
2002 | Minnesota | 2,507 | 2,343 | -164 |
2002 | Atlanta | 2,368 | 1,949 | -419 |
2002 | Miami | 2,502 | 1,817 | -685 |
2003 | Carolina | 2,091 | 1,582 | -509 |
2003 | Baltimore | 2,674 | 2,063 | -611 |
2003 | Green Bay | 2,558 | 1,908 | -650 |
2004 | Atlanta | 2,672 | 2,546 | -126 |
2004 | Pittsburgh | 2,464 | 2,223 | -241 |
2004 | New England | 2,134 | 1,512 | -622 |
2004 | NY Jets | 2,388 | 1,328 | -1,060 |
2005 | Miami | 1,898 | 1,673 | -225 |
2006 | Philadelphia | 1,984 | 1,974 | -10 |
2006 | Jacksonville | 2,541 | 2,391 | -150 |
2006 | San Diego | 2,578 | 2,039 | -539 |
2006 | Tennessee | 2,214 | 2,109 | -105 |
2007 | Oakland | 2,086 | 1,987 | -99 |
2007 | Cleveland | 1,895 | 1,605 | -290 |
2007 | Minnesota | 2,634 | 2,332 | -302 |
2008 | Kansas City | 1,810 | 1,929 | 119 |
2008 | Carolina | 2,437 | 2,498 | 61 |
2008 | Baltimore | 2,376 | 2,200 | -176 |
2008 | Atlanta | 2,443 | 1,876 | -567 |
2009 | NY Jets | 2,756 | 2,374 | -382 |
2009 | Cincinnati | 2,056 | 1,522 | -534 |
2009 | New Orleans | 2,106 | 1,519 | -587 |
2010 | Houston | 2,042 | 2,448 | 406 |
2010 | Philadelphia | 2,324 | 2,276 | -48 |
2010 | Oakland | 2,494 | 2,110 | -384 |
2010 | Kansas City | 2,627 | 1,893 | -734 |
2011 | Carolina | 2,408 | 2,088 | -320 |
2011 | New Orleans | 2,127 | 1,577 | -550 |
2011 | Denver | 2,632 | 1,832 | -800 |
2012 | Kansas City | 2,395 | 2,056 | -339 |
2012 | Seattle | 2,579 | 2,188 | -391 |
2012 | Washington | 2,709 | 2,164 | -545 |
2013 | Philadelphia | 2,566 | 1,992 | -574 |
2013 | San Diego | 1,965 | 1,367 | -598 |
2013 | Oakland | 2,000 | 1,240 | -760 |
2014 | Dallas | 2,354 | 1,890 | -464 |
2014 | Baltimore | 2,019 | 1,478 | -541 |
2014 | Seattle | 2,762 | 2,268 | -494 |
2015 | Arizona | 1,917 | ? | ? |
2015 | Buffalo | 2,432 | ? | ? |
2015 | Tampa Bay | 2,162 | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan