I think there’s a tendency to give guys the benefit of the doubt. That is, you see a running back in his rookie year – Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Melvin Gordon, Ameer Abdullah – and the leaning is to figure they’ll be better in their second season. They’ll know the offense better and they’ll be more experienced and whatnot. But is that true?
That is, how often does it play out that way? How often do we see a running back who’s serviceable and then turns into something really good in his second year.
Certainly it happens sometimes. Frank Gore, Ray Rice, LeVeon Bell and LeSean McCoy have all been spectacularly better in their second year.
But more often than not, it does not happen. When you see a back who struggles in his first year, he tends to continue to struggle.
So here’s a little semi-scientific study.
Starting in 2000, I pulled out all running backs who were selected in the first, second or third rounds. If the player had at least 700 yards in his first year. That is, if he showed he had a little something on the ball and the team had some interest in utilizing him, he was kept. If not, he was tossed. In the drafts this century 47 running backs met that standard.
Then we looked at what they did in the first year versus their second year.
Ends up that over half of these running backs – 26 of the 47 – got worse. That’s using standard fantasy scoring (6 points for touchdowns, and 1 for every 10 yards).
| RUNNING BACKS DECLINING IN SECOND YEAR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft | Player | Run-Rec-TD | Run-Rec-TD | Decline |
| 2000 | Travis Prentice | 512-191-8 | 13-10-2 | 88% |
| 2000 | Jamal Lewis | 1364-296-6 | 0-0-0 | 100% |
| 2001 | Anthony Thomas | 1183-178-7 | 721-163-6 | 30% |
| 2002 | Clinton Portis | 1508-364-17 | 1591-314-14 | 5% |
| 2002 | William Green | 887-113-6 | 559-50-1 | 51% |
| 2004 | Kevin Jones | 1133-180-6 | 664-109-5 | 36% |
| 2005 | Cadillac Williams | 1178-81-6 | 798-196-1 | 35% |
| 2006 | Laurence Maroney | 745-194-7 | 835-116-6 | 4% |
| 2006 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 941-436-16 | 768-407-10 | 24% |
| 2006 | Reggie Bush | 565-742-9 | 581-417-6 | 26% |
| 2008 | Kevin Smith | 976-286-8 | 747-415-5 | 16% |
| 2008 | Matt Forte | 1238-477-12 | 929-471-4 | 33% |
| 2008 | Darren McFadden | 499-285-4 | 357-245-1 | 35% |
| 2008 | Steve Slaton | 1282-377-10 | 437-417-7 | 44% |
| 2009 | Knowshon Moreno | 947-213-9 | 779-372-8 | 4% |
| 2009 | Beanie Wells | 793-143-7 | 397-74-2 | 56% |
| 2010 | Jahvid Best | 555-487-6 | 390-287-3 | 39% |
| 2011 | DeMarco Murray | 897-183-2 | 663-251-4 | 4% |
| 2012 | Trent Richardson | 950-367-12 | 458-265-4 | 53% |
| 2012 | Doug Martin | 1454-472-12 | 456-66-1 | 78% |
| 2013 | Giovani Bernard | 695-514-8 | 680-349-7 | 14% |
| 2013 | Montee Ball | 559-145-4 | 172-62-1 | 69% |
| 2014 | Jeremy Hill | 1124-215-9 | 794-79-12 | 15% |
| 2014 | Bishop Sankey | 569-133-2 | 193-139-2 | 45% |
| 2014 | Tre Mason | 765-148-5 | 207-88-1 | 71% |
| 2014 | Terrance West | 673-64-5 | 231-21-0 | 76% |
The list of running backs who got better is shorter. Only 21 of 47.
| RUNNING BACKS IMPROVING IN SECOND YEAR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft | Player | Run-Rec-TD | Run-Rec-TD | Improve |
| 2000 | Ron Dayne | 770-11-5 | 690-67-7 | 9% |
| 2001 | Travis Henry | 729-179-4 | 1438-309-14 | 125% |
| 2001 | Michael Bennett | 682-226-3 | 1296-351-6 | 84% |
| 2001 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 1236-367-10 | 1683-489-15 | 39% |
| 2001 | Kevan Barlow | 512-247-5 | 675-136-5 | 5% |
| 2004 | Steven Jackson | 673-189-4 | 1046-320-10 | 78% |
| 2004 | Julius Jones | 819-107-7 | 993-218-5 | 12% |
| 2005 | Frank Gore | 608-131-3 | 1695-485-9 | 196% |
| 2005 | Ronnie Brown | 907-232-5 | 1008-276-5 | 10% |
| 2006 | DeAngelo Williams | 501-313-2 | 717-175-5 | 28% |
| 2006 | Joseph Addai | 1081-325-8 | 1072-364-15 | 24% |
| 2006 | Jerious Norwood | 633-102-2 | 613-277-1 | 11% |
| 2007 | Marshawn Lynch | 1115-184-7 | 1036-300-9 | 9% |
| 2007 | Adrian Peterson | 1341-268-13 | 1760-125-10 | 4% |
| 2008 | Ray Rice | 454-273-0 | 1339-702-8 | 247% |
| 2008 | Chris Johnson | 1228-260-10 | 2006-503-16 | 66% |
| 2008 | Jonathan Stewart | 836-47-10 | 1133-139-11 | 30% |
| 2009 | LeSean McCoy | 637-308-4 | 1080-592-9 | 87% |
| 2010 | Ryan Mathews | 678-145-7 | 1091-455-6 | 53% |
| 2013 | LeVeon Bell | 860-399-8 | 1361-854-11 | 65% |
| 2013 | Eddie Lacy | 1178-257-11 | 1139-427-13 | 12% |
Something to kick around as we ponder how much better the likes of Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Matt Jones, Melvin Gordon, Ameer Abdullah, Duke Johnson and T.J. Yeldon might be this year. With Yeldon, he looks like a negative mover, with the Jaguars having added Chris Ivory.
—Ian Allan