Carson Wentz and Jared Goff could both be top-5 picks in next month's draft. If there's a trade down by Tennessee, they could even go 1-2. There are no sure things, but teams seem to be doing a pretty good job lately when they select quarterbacks that early.
Over the last 20 years, there have been 24 quarterbacks selected with top-5 draft picks. By our count, 14 of the 24 have either turned out to be good NFL quarterbacks, or seem to be on their way to that status -- early returns are good. What's more, half of the 10 flops were picked between 1998 and 2002. Since 2003, more than two-thirds of those top-5 selections (11 of 16) have turned out well, and would likely be selected that early again.
Of the five more recent flops, only one (JaMarcus Russell) was an out-and-out bust. Vince Young and Robert Griffin III had a good season or two; perhaps Griffin can still turn his career around. Mark Sanchez and Sam Bradford have had some NFL success, and will probably play in the league for a decade or more. No one would draft either player with a top-5 pick again, however.
The 24 quarterbacks selected with top-5 picks since 1996 are below. We're not distinguishing between "good" and "great"; either they'd be drafted that early again, which seems to be the case with 14 of the 24, or they wouldn't be. (Alex Smith, perhaps, is debatable.) Again, very few flops over the last dozen years, which seems to bode well for Wentz and Goff, should they be drafted that early. The worst ones were taken between 1998 and 2002.
| TOP-5 QUARTERBACKS, 1996-2015 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Team | College | Good or Bad? |
| 2015 | 1 | Jameis Winston | T.B. | Florida State | Good so far |
| 2015 | 2 | Marcus Mariota | Tenn. | Oregon | Good so far |
| 2014 | 3 | Blake Bortles | Jac. | Central Florida | Good so far |
| 2012 | 1 | Andrew Luck | Ind. | Stanford | Good |
| 2012 | 2 | Robert Griffin III | Wash. | Baylor | Good early, but ? |
| 2011 | 1 | Cam Newton | Car. | Auburn | Good |
| 2010 | 1 | Sam Bradford | St.L. | Oklahoma | Probable journeyman |
| 2009 | 1 | Matthew Stafford | Det. | Georgia | Good |
| 2009 | 5 | Mark Sanchez | NYJ | Southern California | Journeyman |
| 2008 | 3 | Matt Ryan | Atl. | Boston College | Good |
| 2007 | 1 | JaMarcus Russell | Oak. | Louisiana State | Bad |
| 2006 | 3 | Vince Young | Tenn. | Texas | Bad |
| 2005 | 1 | Alex Smith | S.F. | Utah | Good |
| 2004 | 1 | Eli Manning | S.D. | Mississippi | Good |
| 2004 | 4 | Philip Rivers | NYG | North Carolina State | Good |
| 2003 | 1 | Carson Palmer | Cin. | Southern California | Good |
| 2002 | 1 | David Carr | Hou. | Fresno State | Bad |
| 2002 | 3 | Joey Harrington | Det. | Oregon | Bad |
| 2001 | 1 | Michael Vick | Atl. | Virginia Tech | Good |
| 1999 | 1 | Tim Couch | Clev. | Kentucky | Bad |
| 1999 | 2 | Donovan McNabb | Phil. | Syracuse | Good |
| 1999 | 3 | Akili Smith | Cin. | Oregon | Bad |
| 1998 | 1 | Peyton Manning | Ind. | Tennessee | Good |
| 1998 | 2 | Ryan Leaf | S.D. | Washington State | Bad |
--Andy Richardson
