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Factoid

Derrick Henry

20 TDs good, not great indicator of NFL success

Alabama running back Derrick Henry put up big numbers in his final year of college; 2,300 total yards and 28 TDs. He'll probably come off the board somewhere in the second round of the NFL Draft; just maybe he sneaks into the first. Does that college production make him likely to be a great pro?

Among the 124 running backs drafted in the first three rounds since 2000 -- that is, selected with the likelihood they might be viable NFL starters -- about a quarter of them (29) scored at least 20 TDs in their final seasons of college. Of those 29, we count 16 who have gone on to have good or great careers; so, a little more than half. Of the remaining 13, there are two who it's too early to say (2015 picks Melvin Gordon and Ameer Abdullah) and then 11 who either quickly found their way out of the league, into a clear backup role, or are headed that way.

There's some subjectivity here. LenDale White, Shonn Greene and Cedric Benson are borderline; they're included among the "good" backs. In general, though, backs who score 20 TDs in that final college season seem maybe slightly more likely to pan out as good NFL backs than turn out bad.

The 29 20-TD backs since 2000 are shown below, sorted by TDs their final year of college. (Numbers shown are from those final college seasons.) Included are two 20-TD college backs fairly certain to be selected in the first three rounds later this month, Henry and Ezekiel Elliott.

RBS WITH 20 TDS FINAL YEAR OF COLLEGE, 2000-PRESENT, Rd 1-3
YearRdPkPlayerTeamRuYdsReYdsTotTDNFL
2014394Terrance WestClev.2519258277742Bad
2015115Melvin GordonS.D.2587153274032?
2008364Kevin SmithDet.2567242280930Good
2016??Derrick Henry?221991231028?
2003123Willis McGaheeBuff.1753355210828Good
2010251Toby GerhartMinn.1871157202828Bad
2002391Brian WestbrookPhil.1603658226128Good
2012384Bernard PierceBalt.148152153327Bad
2006245LenDale WhiteTenn.1302219152126Good
2008255Ray RiceBalt.2012239225125Good
201213Trent RichardsonClev.1679338201724Bad
2014375Tre MasonSt.L.1816163217924Bad
2016??Ezekiel Elliott?1821206202723?
2008124Chris JohnsonTenn.1423528195123Good
2003127Larry JohnsonK.C.2087349243623Good
2000119Shaun AlexanderSea.1383323170623Good
2008244Matt ForteChi.2127282240923Good
2004124Steven JacksonSt.L.1545470201522Good
200115LaDainian TomlinsonS.D.215840219822Good
2015254Ameer AbdullahDet.1611269188022?
2013258Montee BallDen.183072190222Bad
2004130Kevin JonesDet.1647161180821Good
2014254Bishop SankeyTenn.1870304217421Bad
2009253LeSean McCoy Phil.1488305179321Good
200514Cedric BensonChi.1834179201320Good
2004126Chris PerryCin.1674367204120Bad
2011257Mikel LeshoureDet.1697196189320Bad
2005254Eric SheltonCar.9383597320Bad
2012367Ronnie HillmanDen.1711270198120Bad
2011371DeMarco MurrayDall.1214594180820Good
2009365Shonn Greene NYJ185049189920Good

--Andy Richardson

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