Alabama running back Derrick Henry put up big numbers in his final year of college; 2,300 total yards and 28 TDs. He'll probably come off the board somewhere in the second round of the NFL Draft; just maybe he sneaks into the first. Does that college production make him likely to be a great pro?
Among the 124 running backs drafted in the first three rounds since 2000 -- that is, selected with the likelihood they might be viable NFL starters -- about a quarter of them (29) scored at least 20 TDs in their final seasons of college. Of those 29, we count 16 who have gone on to have good or great careers; so, a little more than half. Of the remaining 13, there are two who it's too early to say (2015 picks Melvin Gordon and Ameer Abdullah) and then 11 who either quickly found their way out of the league, into a clear backup role, or are headed that way.
There's some subjectivity here. LenDale White, Shonn Greene and Cedric Benson are borderline; they're included among the "good" backs. In general, though, backs who score 20 TDs in that final college season seem maybe slightly more likely to pan out as good NFL backs than turn out bad.
The 29 20-TD backs since 2000 are shown below, sorted by TDs their final year of college. (Numbers shown are from those final college seasons.) Included are two 20-TD college backs fairly certain to be selected in the first three rounds later this month, Henry and Ezekiel Elliott.
| RBS WITH 20 TDS FINAL YEAR OF COLLEGE, 2000-PRESENT, Rd 1-3 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Rd | Pk | Player | Team | RuYds | ReYds | Tot | TD | NFL |
| 2014 | 3 | 94 | Terrance West | Clev. | 2519 | 258 | 2777 | 42 | Bad |
| 2015 | 1 | 15 | Melvin Gordon | S.D. | 2587 | 153 | 2740 | 32 | ? |
| 2008 | 3 | 64 | Kevin Smith | Det. | 2567 | 242 | 2809 | 30 | Good |
| 2016 | ? | ? | Derrick Henry | ? | 2219 | 91 | 2310 | 28 | ? |
| 2003 | 1 | 23 | Willis McGahee | Buff. | 1753 | 355 | 2108 | 28 | Good |
| 2010 | 2 | 51 | Toby Gerhart | Minn. | 1871 | 157 | 2028 | 28 | Bad |
| 2002 | 3 | 91 | Brian Westbrook | Phil. | 1603 | 658 | 2261 | 28 | Good |
| 2012 | 3 | 84 | Bernard Pierce | Balt. | 1481 | 52 | 1533 | 27 | Bad |
| 2006 | 2 | 45 | LenDale White | Tenn. | 1302 | 219 | 1521 | 26 | Good |
| 2008 | 2 | 55 | Ray Rice | Balt. | 2012 | 239 | 2251 | 25 | Good |
| 2012 | 1 | 3 | Trent Richardson | Clev. | 1679 | 338 | 2017 | 24 | Bad |
| 2014 | 3 | 75 | Tre Mason | St.L. | 1816 | 163 | 2179 | 24 | Bad |
| 2016 | ? | ? | Ezekiel Elliott | ? | 1821 | 206 | 2027 | 23 | ? |
| 2008 | 1 | 24 | Chris Johnson | Tenn. | 1423 | 528 | 1951 | 23 | Good |
| 2003 | 1 | 27 | Larry Johnson | K.C. | 2087 | 349 | 2436 | 23 | Good |
| 2000 | 1 | 19 | Shaun Alexander | Sea. | 1383 | 323 | 1706 | 23 | Good |
| 2008 | 2 | 44 | Matt Forte | Chi. | 2127 | 282 | 2409 | 23 | Good |
| 2004 | 1 | 24 | Steven Jackson | St.L. | 1545 | 470 | 2015 | 22 | Good |
| 2001 | 1 | 5 | LaDainian Tomlinson | S.D. | 2158 | 40 | 2198 | 22 | Good |
| 2015 | 2 | 54 | Ameer Abdullah | Det. | 1611 | 269 | 1880 | 22 | ? |
| 2013 | 2 | 58 | Montee Ball | Den. | 1830 | 72 | 1902 | 22 | Bad |
| 2004 | 1 | 30 | Kevin Jones | Det. | 1647 | 161 | 1808 | 21 | Good |
| 2014 | 2 | 54 | Bishop Sankey | Tenn. | 1870 | 304 | 2174 | 21 | Bad |
| 2009 | 2 | 53 | LeSean McCoy | Phil. | 1488 | 305 | 1793 | 21 | Good |
| 2005 | 1 | 4 | Cedric Benson | Chi. | 1834 | 179 | 2013 | 20 | Good |
| 2004 | 1 | 26 | Chris Perry | Cin. | 1674 | 367 | 2041 | 20 | Bad |
| 2011 | 2 | 57 | Mikel Leshoure | Det. | 1697 | 196 | 1893 | 20 | Bad |
| 2005 | 2 | 54 | Eric Shelton | Car. | 938 | 35 | 973 | 20 | Bad |
| 2012 | 3 | 67 | Ronnie Hillman | Den. | 1711 | 270 | 1981 | 20 | Bad |
| 2011 | 3 | 71 | DeMarco Murray | Dall. | 1214 | 594 | 1808 | 20 | Good |
| 2009 | 3 | 65 | Shonn Greene | NYJ | 1850 | 49 | 1899 | 20 | Good |
--Andy Richardson