Blake Bortles and Derek Carr both put together breakout-type seasons last year. Does this mean we should all be paying more attention to second-year quarterbacks? Are Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota going to be the bust-out guys this year? Or not.
For this kind of question, it’s always nice to look at what other players in similar situations have done in previous years. That is, how many other second-year quarterbacks have gone bonkers over the years?
For this one, I didn’t want the answer to be determined (or polluted) by injuries and benchings. So I looked only at quarterbacks who started at least eight games in their first year, then came back and started at least half the season again in the second year. Then I compared the numbers.
Per-game numbers can look weird, so I translated everything into 16-game seasons. That is, if a quarterback started nine games and averaged 250 yards, with 9 TD passes, I just put him down for 4,000 yards and 16 TDs. I wanted the answers to come from how they played on the field, rather than simply who happened to get hurt (or play a few more games).
There were 26 quarterbacks who fit the description of what I was looking for.
Turns out, only 16 of them put up better numbers in their second season, using standard fantasy scoring. Ten of them (over a third) put up worse numbers.
Overall, quarterbacks tended to be about 6 percent better (in fantasy terms). They tended to average about 199 more passing yards (12 per game), with 3 more TD passes. They declined, on average, by 28 rushing yards per season, with almost one fewer rushing touchdown
Here are the numbers. For the guys who declined, I have their names in bold.
| QUARTERBACKS IMPROVING IN SECOND YEAR (or not) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Player | Pass | TDP | Run | TDP | Points |
| 02-03 | Joey Harrington | -109 | 1.0 | 81 | .0 | 5% |
| 02-03 | David Carr | 300 | 4.1 | -106 | -.1 | 5% |
| 02-03 | Drew Brees | -218 | -1.0 | -8 | .5 | -6% |
| 03-04 | Kyle Boller | 337 | .6 | 79 | 1.0 | 10% |
| 03-04 | Byron Leftwich | 44 | 2.4 | 36 | -.2 | 7% |
| 04-05 | Ben Roethlisberger | 171 | 4.2 | -85 | 2.8 | 10% |
| 06-07 | Vince Young | 173 | -3.9 | -229 | -5.4 | -24% |
| 07-08 | Trent Edwards | 359 | .1 | 47 | 3.4 | 20% |
| 08-09 | Matt Ryan | -107 | 9.1 | -48 | .1 | 9% |
| 08-09 | Joe Flacco | 642 | 7.0 | -124 | -2.0 | 14% |
| 09-10 | Mark Sanchez | 684 | 4.2 | -8 | -.2 | 19% |
| 09-10 | Josh Freeman | 182 | 7.2 | 87 | .0 | 15% |
| 10-11 | Colt McCoy | 191 | 5.2 | -11 | -2.0 | 7% |
| 10-11 | Sam Bradford | -50 | -8.4 | -21 | -1.0 | -17% |
| 11-12 | Blaine Gabbert | 188 | .7 | -21 | .0 | 9% |
| 11-12 | Andy Dalton | 271 | 7.0 | -32 | 3.0 | 18% |
| 11-12 | Christian Ponder | 129 | -2.8 | -85 | 2.0 | -1% |
| 11-12 | Cam Newton | -182 | -2.0 | 35 | -6.0 | -16% |
| 12-13 | Ryan Tannehill | 619 | 12.0 | 27 | -1.0 | 28% |
| 12-13 | Russell Wilson | 239 | .0 | 50 | -3.0 | -1% |
| 12-13 | Robert Griffin III | 529 | -1.6 | -267 | -7.5 | -12% |
| 12-13 | Andrew Luck | -552 | .0 | 122 | -1.0 | -6% |
| 13-14 | Geno Smith | -48 | 4.0 | -78 | -4.8 | -9% |
| 14-15 | Derek Carr | 717 | 11.0 | 46 | .0 | 34% |
| 14-15 | Blake Bortles | 1123 | 23.9 | -169 | 2.0 | 55% |
| 14-15 | Teddy Bridgewater | -461 | -4.7 | -51 | 1.7 | -16% |
—Ian Allan