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L.A. Rams

Immediate future not bright for No. 1 pick of the draft

The Rams have swung the trade for the first pick of the draft. They now have the ability to select Carson Wentz or Jared Goff. Now what? At least for this year, probably not much. The track record for rookie quarterbacks is remarkably ugly.

There have been a couple of notable exceptions – Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck – but it’s far more common for quarterbacks to struggle in their first year.

In this century, 42 have been selected with first-round picks. Just over half of those guys started over half of their games in their first year. And of that 23-quarterback subset, only four were able to be top-15 quarterbacks right out of the box.

And by “top 15”, note that I’m using the apples-to-apples grading of looking at production per game. Otherwise, you can run into the deal where a player starts all 16 games and winds up in the top 15 simply through attrition.

Especially with the kind of offense that’s around him, it looks very unlikely that the new Los Angeles quarterback will put up stats of any significance in his first year.

FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS STARTING AT LEAST EIGHT GAMES
YearPlayerStPassRunTDPIntTDRFPGRk
2002David Carr, Hou.1616218915313.528th
2002Joey Harrington, Det.1218701216013.429th
2003Byron Leftwich, Jac.1320781216215.820th
2003Kyle Boller, Balt.9139779011.631st
2004Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.1318811159115.624th
2008Matt Ryan, Atl.1621571611115.921st
2008Joe Flacco, Balt.16186111412214.826th
2009Matthew Stafford, Det.10227111320219.014th
2009Josh Freeman, T.B.9204171018016.823rd
2009Mark Sanchez, NYJ1516371220313.528th
2010Sam Bradford, St.L.1622041815116.224th
2011Cam Newton, Car.162534421171427.84th
2011Blaine Gabbert, Jac.1415471211011.833rd
2012Robert Griffin III, Wash.1521354205724.25th
2012Andrew Luck, Ind.16273162318522.910th
2012Brandon Weeden, Clev.1522671417015.827th
2012Ryan Tannehill, Mia.16206131213215.628th
2013EJ Manuel, Buff.1019719119217.725th
2014Teddy Bridgewater, Minn.12231151412118.621st
2014Blake Bortles, Jac.1320730915016.227th
2015Marcus Mariota, Tenn.12235211910322.216th
2015Jameis Winston, T.B.16253132215621.817th

—Ian Allan

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