The Rams paid a steep price for the right to draft a quarterback at the No. 1 overall pick -- too steep, say many, who contend that the team should have stayed where they were and drafted the third or fourth quarterback off the board instead, and not given up all those high picks to move up.
But are they right? Recent history shows a hit rate that's much, much better with quarterbacks selected in the top 5 picks as opposed to those selected at No. 6 through No. 50.
Here are the quarterbacks selected in the top 5 picks over the last 20 years. There's some subjectivity here (and early guesses on guys like Winston and Mariota), but here's the ratio of franchise quarterbacks (Hit) to journeymen and/or busts (Miss).
| QBS DRAFTED IN TOP 5, 1996-2015 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Team | Hit/Miss? |
| 2015 | 1 | Jameis Winston | T.B. | Hit |
| 2015 | 2 | Marcus Mariota | Tenn. | Hit |
| 2014 | 3 | Blake Bortles | Jac. | Hit |
| 2012 | 1 | Andrew Luck | Ind. | Hit |
| 2012 | 2 | Robert Griffin III | Wash. | Miss |
| 2011 | 1 | Cam Newton | Car. | Hit |
| 2010 | 1 | Sam Bradford | St.L. | Miss |
| 2009 | 1 | Matthew Stafford | Det. | Hit |
| 2009 | 5 | Mark Sanchez | NYJ | Miss |
| 2008 | 3 | Matt Ryan | Atl. | Hit |
| 2007 | 1 | JaMarcus Russell | Oak. | Miss |
| 2006 | 3 | Vince Young | Tenn. | Miss |
| 2005 | 1 | Alex Smith | S.F. | Miss |
| 2004 | 1 | Eli Manning | NYG | Hit |
| 2004 | 4 | Philip Rivers | S.D. | Hit |
| 2003 | 1 | Carson Palmer | Cin. | Hit |
| 2002 | 1 | David Carr | Hou. | Miss |
| 2002 | 3 | Joey Harrington | Det. | Miss |
| 2001 | 1 | Michael Vick | Atl. | Hit |
| 1999 | 1 | Tim Couch | Clev. | Miss |
| 1999 | 2 | Donovan McNabb | Phil. | Hit |
| 1999 | 3 | Akili Smith | Cin. | Miss |
| 1998 | 1 | Peyton Manning | Ind. | Hit |
| 1998 | 2 | Ryan Leaf | S.D. | Miss |
By our count that's 13 hits and 11 misses on those 24 quarterbacks, so slightly better than 50 percent. This makes early calls on a couple of players, but also calls "misses" some guys who either had a good season or two (Young, RGIII) or carved out a nice second career (Alex Smith). Also note that teams have been doing well with these picks recently -- seven of the last 10 seem to have panned out, with the three misses (Bradford, Sanchez, RGIII) not out-and-out flops. Sanchez and Griffin both started out pretty well. Bradford has had his moments.
Now here are the 40 quarterbacks taken outside the top 5 picks but inside the top 50 in that same 20-year period. That's where (most likely) Paxton Lynch and perhaps Connor Cook will be selected in this year's draft.
| QBS DRAFTED PICKS 6 TO 50, 1996-2015 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Team | Hit/Miss? |
| 2014 | 22 | Johnny Manziel | Clev. | Miss |
| 2014 | 32 | Teddy Bridgewater | Minn. | Hit |
| 2014 | 36 | Derek Carr | Oak. | Hit |
| 2013 | 16 | EJ Manuel | Buff. | Miss |
| 2013 | 39 | Geno Smith | NYJ | Miss |
| 2012 | 8 | Ryan Tannehill | Mia. | ? |
| 2012 | 22 | Brandon Weeden | Clev. | Miss |
| 2011 | 8 | Jake Locker | Tenn. | Miss |
| 2011 | 10 | Blaine Gabbert | Jac. | Miss |
| 2011 | 12 | Christian Ponder | Minn. | Miss |
| 2011 | 35 | Andy Dalton | Cin. | Hit |
| 2011 | 36 | Colin Kaepernick | S.F. | Miss |
| 2010 | 25 | Tim Tebow | Den. | Miss |
| 2010 | 48 | Jimmy Clausen | Car. | Miss |
| 2009 | 17 | Josh Freeman | T.B. | Miss |
| 2009 | 44 | Pat White | Mia. | Miss |
| 2008 | 18 | Joe Flacco | Balt. | Hit |
| 2007 | 22 | Brady Quinn | Clev. | Miss |
| 2007 | 36 | Kevin Kolb | Phil. | Miss |
| 2007 | 40 | John Beck | Mia. | Miss |
| 2007 | 43 | Drew Stanton | Det. | Miss |
| 2006 | 10 | Matt Leinart | Ariz. | Miss |
| 2006 | 11 | Jay Cutler | Den. | Hit |
| 2006 | 49 | Kellen Clemens | NYJ | Miss |
| 2005 | 24 | Aaron Rodgers | G.B. | Hit |
| 2005 | 25 | Jason Campbell | Wash. | Miss |
| 2004 | 11 | Ben Roethlisberger | Pitt. | Hit |
| 2004 | 22 | J.P. Losman | Buff. | Miss |
| 2003 | 7 | Byron Leftwich | Jac. | Miss |
| 2003 | 19 | Kyle Boller | Balt. | Miss |
| 2003 | 22 | Rex Grossman | Chi. | Miss |
| 2002 | 32 | Patrick Ramsey | Wash. | Miss |
| 2001 | 32 | Drew Brees | S.D. | Hit |
| 2000 | 18 | Chad Pennington | NYJ | Miss |
| 1999 | 11 | Daunte Culpepper | Minn. | Hit |
| 1999 | 12 | Cade McNown | Chi. | Miss |
| 1999 | 50 | Shaun King | T.B. | Miss |
| 1997 | 26 | Jim Druckenmiller | S.F. | Miss |
| 1997 | 42 | Jake Plummer | Ariz. | Hit |
| 1996 | 42 | Tony Banks | St.L. | Miss |
Ryan Tannehill was the one guy tough to figure out what to do with him. But by this count, there have been 10 hits and 29 misses; about one-in-four quarterbacks taken outside the top 5 picks have panned out. And things have been particularly bad lately. Four hits (Joe Flacco, Derek Carr, marginal Teddy Bridgewater and the oft-criticized Andy Dalton) and 17 misses since 2006, including a whole lot of out-and-out busts.
Maybe the Rams gave up too much. But their odds of pulling a franchise quarterback out of the top 5 picks are a whole lot better than finding one after that point in the draft.
By the way, players like Russell Wilson (3rd round) and Tom Brady (6th round) are near-total anomalies. There are no other really good quarterbacks drafted in the mid to late rounds in the last 20 years. I wonder if the Texans considered that when they gave Brock Osweiler $18 million a year last month.
--Andy Richardson