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Factoid

Carolina Panthers

Can Ted Ginn keep catching touchdowns?

Ted Ginn Jr. caught 10 touchdowns last year, and he did it despite catching only 44 passes. That make him the most potent per-catch scorer in the league, scoring on 23 percent of his catches. That’s rare.

Since the league moved to the 16-game schedule in 1978, only 16 other wide receivers have caught 10-plus touchdowns while catching under 50 passes.

Daryl Turner, who used to play opposite Steve Largent here in Seattle, was the all-time king of this category. He’s the only guy who’s done it twice, scoring on 23 of 69 receptions in the 1984-85 seasons.

UNDER 50 CATCHES AND DOUBLE-DIGIT TOUCHDOWNS
YearPlayerNoRecAvgTD
1978Nat Moore, Mia.4864513.410
1979Stanley Morgan, N.E.44100222.812
1980Bob Chandler, Oak.4978616.010
1984Freddie Solomon, S.F.4073718.410
1984Daryl Turner, Sea.3571520.410
1985Daryl Turner, Sea.3467019.713
1986Wesley Walker, NYJ49101620.712
1987Mike Quick, Phil.4679017.211
1989Cris Carter, Phil.4560513.411
1992Michael Haynes, Atl.4880816.810
1997James Jett, Oak.4680417.512
2004Randy Moss, Minn.4976715.713
2007Reggie Williams, Jac.3862916.610
2009Robert Meachem, N.O.4572216.010
2013Jerricho Cotchery, Pitt.4660213.110
2014Torrey Smith, Balt.4976715.711
2015Ted Ginn Jr., Car.4473916.810

But is this kind of play sustainable? That is, can we count on Ginn with any confidence to continue to haul in 40-yard touchdowns? They’ve got Kelvin Benjamin coming back, which works against him. And they might also get more out of Devin Funchess.

Of the previous 16 of these receivers, only two came back the next year and posted even better numbers. For fantasy purposes, probably four others came back and did what could have been reasonably expected from them. Nat Moore, Stanley Morgan and James Jett all went over 800 yards, with 6 TDs each, and people weren’t drafting them with the expectation they’d do much more. Michael Haynes caught only 4 TDs but moved up to 72 receptions.

On the “decline” percentage number that’s added as the final column, that’s using the fantasy scoring system of 6 points for a touchdown catch and 1 point for every 10 yards.

SAME RECEIVERS: THE NEXT SEASON
YearPlayerNoRecAvgTDDecline
1979Nat Moore, Mia.4884017.564%
1980Stanley Morgan, N.E.4599122.0622%
1981Bob Chandler, Oak.2645817.6450%
1985Freddie Solomon, S.F.2525910.4176%
1985Daryl Turner, Sea.3467019.713+10%
1986Daryl Turner, Sea.1833418.6748%
1987Wesley Walker, NYJ919021.1186%
1988Mike Quick, Phil.2250823.1448%
1990Cris Carter, Minn.2741315.3353%
1993Michael Haynes, Atl.7277810.8428%
1998James Jett, Oak.4588219.6619%
2005Randy Moss, Oak.62113618.38+4%
2008Reggie Williams, Jac.373649.8356%
2010Robert Meachem, N.O.4463814.5529%
2014Jerricho Cotchery, Car.4858012.1147%
2015Torrey Smith, S.F.3366320.1437%

—Ian Allan

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