Fantasy Index

Factoid

Third-round wideouts

Fewer than 1-in-3 have turned out well of late

Among the candidates to make a statistical jump in their second seasons in the league are some wide receivers drafted in the third round a year ago. Jaelen Strong in Houston, Sammie Coates in Pittsburgh, Chris Conley in Kansas City, and a couple of Tys -- Ty Montgomery in Green Bay, Tyler Lockett in Seattle.

Over the last 10 years, there have been 48 other wide receivers selected in the third round. In Year 2, 14 of those players (slightly less than a third) put up noteworthy numbers in their second season. I'm being generous with the term noteworthy, including every wideout that put up at least 500 receiving yards.

Exactly half (24) of those players did almost nothing at all in Year 2, not even reaching 300 receiving yards. Only two of that group (the most productive two, as it turns out, Emmanuel Sanders and James Jones) went on to be solid NFL players. The rest quickly disappeared from the league or are well on their way. (Some of the ones with 500-plus yards did, too, like Damian Williams and Earl Bennett.)

So last year's third rounders appear to have about a 1-in-3 chance of putting up good numbers in Year 2. And if they don't do much in 2016, their careers probably won't amount to very much, either.

Third-rounders from the last decade, sorted by Year 2 receiving yards, are below.

THIRD-ROUND WIDEOUTS, 2006-2015
YearPickPlayerTeamNoYdsTD
200984Mike Wallace Pitt.60125710
201292T.Y. HiltonInd.8210835
201491John BrownAriz.6510037
200895Mario ManninghamNYG578225
201376Keenan AllenS.D.777834
201490Donte MoncriefInd.647336
200870Earl BennettChi.547172
201379Markus WheatonPitt.536442
201374Terrance WilliamsDall.376218
201078Brandon LaFellCar.366133
201087Eric DeckerDen.446128
201077Damian WilliamsTenn.455925
201088Andre RobertsAriz.515862
201179Leonard HankersonWash.385433
201283Mohamed SanuCin.474552
201392Stedman BaileySt.L.304351
200983Brandon Tate N.E.244325
200897Andre CaldwellCin.514323
200991Deon Butler Sea.363854
200682Derek HaganMia.293732
200799Johnnie Lee HigginsOak.223667
201269T.J. GrahamBuff.233612
200776Jason HillS.F.303172
201486Josh HuffPhil.273123
201082Emmanuel SandersPitt.222882
200778James JonesG.B.202741
201178Austin PettisSt.L.302614
200779Mike Sims-WalkerJac.162170
200881Early DoucetAriz.172141
201268DeVier PoseyHou.151550
200690Maurice StovallT.B.10861
200773Jacoby JonesHou.3812
200985Ramses Barden NYG5640
200695Willie ReidPitt.4540
200775Laurent RobinsonAtl.5520
200774Yamon FigursBalt.1431
201378Marquise GoodwinBuff.1420
201090Taylor PriceN.E.2390
200982Derrick Williams Det.3300
200987Patrick Turner Mia.2260
201183Jerrel JerniganNYG3220
201084Jordan ShipleyCin.4140
200780Paul WilliamsTenn.170
201182Vincent BrownS.D.000
200999Juaquin Iglesias Chi.000
200884Harry DouglasAtl.000
200678Travis WilsonClev.000
200684Brandon WilliamsS.F.000
201569Tyler LockettSea.???
201570Jaelen StrongHou.???
201576Chris ConleyK.C.???
201587Sammie CoatesPitt.???
201594Ty MontgomeryG.B.???

--Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index