Among the candidates to make a statistical jump in their second seasons in the league are some wide receivers drafted in the third round a year ago. Jaelen Strong in Houston, Sammie Coates in Pittsburgh, Chris Conley in Kansas City, and a couple of Tys -- Ty Montgomery in Green Bay, Tyler Lockett in Seattle.
Over the last 10 years, there have been 48 other wide receivers selected in the third round. In Year 2, 14 of those players (slightly less than a third) put up noteworthy numbers in their second season. I'm being generous with the term noteworthy, including every wideout that put up at least 500 receiving yards.
Exactly half (24) of those players did almost nothing at all in Year 2, not even reaching 300 receiving yards. Only two of that group (the most productive two, as it turns out, Emmanuel Sanders and James Jones) went on to be solid NFL players. The rest quickly disappeared from the league or are well on their way. (Some of the ones with 500-plus yards did, too, like Damian Williams and Earl Bennett.)
So last year's third rounders appear to have about a 1-in-3 chance of putting up good numbers in Year 2. And if they don't do much in 2016, their careers probably won't amount to very much, either.
Third-rounders from the last decade, sorted by Year 2 receiving yards, are below.
| THIRD-ROUND WIDEOUTS, 2006-2015 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pick | Player | Team | No | Yds | TD |
| 2009 | 84 | Mike Wallace | Pitt. | 60 | 1257 | 10 |
| 2012 | 92 | T.Y. Hilton | Ind. | 82 | 1083 | 5 |
| 2014 | 91 | John Brown | Ariz. | 65 | 1003 | 7 |
| 2008 | 95 | Mario Manningham | NYG | 57 | 822 | 5 |
| 2013 | 76 | Keenan Allen | S.D. | 77 | 783 | 4 |
| 2014 | 90 | Donte Moncrief | Ind. | 64 | 733 | 6 |
| 2008 | 70 | Earl Bennett | Chi. | 54 | 717 | 2 |
| 2013 | 79 | Markus Wheaton | Pitt. | 53 | 644 | 2 |
| 2013 | 74 | Terrance Williams | Dall. | 37 | 621 | 8 |
| 2010 | 78 | Brandon LaFell | Car. | 36 | 613 | 3 |
| 2010 | 87 | Eric Decker | Den. | 44 | 612 | 8 |
| 2010 | 77 | Damian Williams | Tenn. | 45 | 592 | 5 |
| 2010 | 88 | Andre Roberts | Ariz. | 51 | 586 | 2 |
| 2011 | 79 | Leonard Hankerson | Wash. | 38 | 543 | 3 |
| 2012 | 83 | Mohamed Sanu | Cin. | 47 | 455 | 2 |
| 2013 | 92 | Stedman Bailey | St.L. | 30 | 435 | 1 |
| 2009 | 83 | Brandon Tate | N.E. | 24 | 432 | 5 |
| 2008 | 97 | Andre Caldwell | Cin. | 51 | 432 | 3 |
| 2009 | 91 | Deon Butler | Sea. | 36 | 385 | 4 |
| 2006 | 82 | Derek Hagan | Mia. | 29 | 373 | 2 |
| 2007 | 99 | Johnnie Lee Higgins | Oak. | 22 | 366 | 7 |
| 2012 | 69 | T.J. Graham | Buff. | 23 | 361 | 2 |
| 2007 | 76 | Jason Hill | S.F. | 30 | 317 | 2 |
| 2014 | 86 | Josh Huff | Phil. | 27 | 312 | 3 |
| 2010 | 82 | Emmanuel Sanders | Pitt. | 22 | 288 | 2 |
| 2007 | 78 | James Jones | G.B. | 20 | 274 | 1 |
| 2011 | 78 | Austin Pettis | St.L. | 30 | 261 | 4 |
| 2007 | 79 | Mike Sims-Walker | Jac. | 16 | 217 | 0 |
| 2008 | 81 | Early Doucet | Ariz. | 17 | 214 | 1 |
| 2012 | 68 | DeVier Posey | Hou. | 15 | 155 | 0 |
| 2006 | 90 | Maurice Stovall | T.B. | 10 | 86 | 1 |
| 2007 | 73 | Jacoby Jones | Hou. | 3 | 81 | 2 |
| 2009 | 85 | Ramses Barden | NYG | 5 | 64 | 0 |
| 2006 | 95 | Willie Reid | Pitt. | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| 2007 | 75 | Laurent Robinson | Atl. | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| 2007 | 74 | Yamon Figurs | Balt. | 1 | 43 | 1 |
| 2013 | 78 | Marquise Goodwin | Buff. | 1 | 42 | 0 |
| 2010 | 90 | Taylor Price | N.E. | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| 2009 | 82 | Derrick Williams | Det. | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| 2009 | 87 | Patrick Turner | Mia. | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| 2011 | 83 | Jerrel Jernigan | NYG | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| 2010 | 84 | Jordan Shipley | Cin. | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| 2007 | 80 | Paul Williams | Tenn. | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 2011 | 82 | Vincent Brown | S.D. | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2009 | 99 | Juaquin Iglesias | Chi. | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2008 | 84 | Harry Douglas | Atl. | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2006 | 78 | Travis Wilson | Clev. | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2006 | 84 | Brandon Williams | S.F. | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2015 | 69 | Tyler Lockett | Sea. | ? | ? | ? |
| 2015 | 70 | Jaelen Strong | Hou. | ? | ? | ? |
| 2015 | 76 | Chris Conley | K.C. | ? | ? | ? |
| 2015 | 87 | Sammie Coates | Pitt. | ? | ? | ? |
| 2015 | 94 | Ty Montgomery | G.B. | ? | ? | ? |
--Andy Richardson