I’m starting to look more closely at the Packers, and I notice their problems around the end zone are a little more severe than I expected. They didn’t just struggle last year; they also had some problems the previous two years. Aaron Rodgers in particular.
Not that Rodgers is a bum that we should all be avoiding, but he hasn’t been good in the crucial situations around the goal line, like he was earlier in his career. In each of the last three years, he’s completed about (almost exactly) 50 percent when the team has been inside the 10. This isn’t just a case of Jordy Nelson being hurt last year. Rodgers also struggled in that part of the field the previous two years.
Over the last three years, 25 quarterbacks have orchestrated at least 50 plays inside the 10. Rodgers has gone 72 of 143, with 4 interceptions and 9 sacks. He’s successfully got the ball in the end zone on 48 of his 152 plays (43 TDs and 5 two-point conversions). That’s 32 percent. That’s better than only four other quarterbacks, and two of them are Nick Foles and Colin Kaepernick.
I’m still looking at stuff. This is just one piece of the puzzle. But gut feeling is Rodgers will be a top-5 quarterback, but probably not a difference-maker type guy to really go aggressively after.
| PASSING INSIDE THE 10 (2013-15) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Comp | Att | TD | EZ Pct | Int | Sack |
| Kirk Cousins | 35 | 56 | (23+2) | 43.9% | 0 | 1 |
| Tony Romo | 46 | 79 | (33+1) | 40.5% | 1 | 5 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 38 | 68 | (29+0) | 40.3% | 1 | 4 |
| Matthew Stafford | 66 | 119 | (46+3) | 39.8% | 0 | 4 |
| Andy Dalton | 43 | 80 | (31+1) | 38.6% | 6 | 3 |
| Tom Brady | 68 | 123 | (48+2) | 38.5% | 3 | 7 |
| Drew Brees | 67 | 108 | (44+0) | 38.3% | 2 | 7 |
| Peyton Manning | 81 | 130 | (48+2) | 37.6% | 1 | 3 |
| Philip Rivers | 64 | 116 | (42+2) | 37.3% | 5 | 2 |
| Andrew Luck | 60 | 105 | (37+5) | 37.2% | 2 | 8 |
| Cam Newton | 37 | 71 | (27+1) | 36.8% | 0 | 5 |
| Jay Cutler | 62 | 123 | (38+8) | 36.8% | 5 | 2 |
| Eli Manning | 59 | 112 | (42+0) | 36.2% | 5 | 4 |
| Matt Ryan | 69 | 123 | (43+2) | 35.7% | 4 | 3 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 80 | 138 | (40+11) | 35.7% | 1 | 5 |
| Blake Bortles | 35 | 74 | (25+2) | 35.1% | 2 | 3 |
| Josh McCown | 27 | 55 | (17+3) | 33.9% | 3 | 4 |
| Joe Flacco | 54 | 100 | (31+3) | 33.0% | 1 | 3 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 64 | 120 | (39+1) | 32.8% | 3 | 2 |
| Russell Wilson | 37 | 77 | (28+0) | 32.6% | 2 | 9 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 72 | 143 | (43+5) | 31.6% | 4 | 9 |
| Nick Foles | 22 | 48 | (13+3) | 30.8% | 3 | 4 |
| Alex Smith | 42 | 79 | (23+2) | 30.1% | 1 | 4 |
| Carson Palmer | 41 | 91 | (28+0) | 30.1% | 2 | 3 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 33 | 72 | (20+1) | 28.4% | 2 | 2 |
—Ian Allan