I like the Corey Coleman pick. I posted a blurb about him last month, wondering why the consensus had Laquon Treadwell as the best receiver in this draft. Treadwell seems to be a bigger, slower receiver like Michael Crabtree or Hakeem Nicks.
To me, watching Coleman’s highlights, he looks a lot like Antonio Brown or Steve Smith. He’s small, but he’s competitive and quick as hell. I consistently see him catching the ball and instantly exploding off in a different direction. He runs 4.37, which is exactly the same as Brandin Cooks a couple of years ago (another receiver who seems to be working his way into this group).
So I wanted to explore briefly the idea of whether there’s size discrimination in the draft. That is, are teams consistently undervaluing small receivers – Smith, Brown – while overdrafting big guys who don’t quite measure up? Jon Baldwin, Reggie Williams and Mike Williams come to mind as big receivers who simply couldn’t get it done in the pros.
So I spent a half hour organizing recent first-round picks by size.
Sorry, but I don’t have clever, telling results for you.
Since 2000, there have been 26 receivers selected that I will stick the “big” label on. I included all players who are at least 6-foot-3, and I also included five 6-foot-2 players who weigh at least 220 pounds.
Of the group, 10 I will call busts. And by “bust” I mean if we were to wind back the clock, no way in a zillion years would the team even consider drafting that player. Some of these players had a little success. (Michael Clayton, for example, caught 80 passes as a rookie, and Reggie Williams had a 10-TD season.) But those nine were big disappointments. The busts have a black dot in front of their name.
Of the 27, nine are what I would call home run picks, and they’re in bold. With those guys, not only would the players select them again, but they would run the card to the podium. They have exceeded expectations.
The other eight are somewhere in-between. They’ve had some success, or it’s simply too early to call. Mike Evans and Kelvin Benjamin, for example, seem to be on track to be great picks, but I am holding off for now. Each has just one good season. Brayon Edwards had one insanely good season for the Browns but otherwise had a ho-hum career.
Anyway, with big receivers it seems to come out in about thirds – a third great, a third lousy, and a third in-between.
| BIG RECEIVERS SINCE 2000 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pick | Player | Height | Weight |
| 2005 | 21 | • Matt Jones, Jac. | 6-6 | 242 |
| 2000 | 8 | Plaxico Burress, Pitt. | 6-5 | 231 |
| 2005 | 10 | • Mike Williams, Det. | 6-5 | 229 |
| 2014 | 7 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 6-5 | 231 |
| 2014 | 28 | Kelvin Benjamin, Car. | 6-5 | 240 |
| 2002 | 20 | Javon Walker, G.B. | 6-4 | 210 |
| 2004 | 29 | • Michael Jenkins, Atl. | 6-4 | 217 |
| 2007 | 2 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 6-4 | 237 |
| 2011 | 4 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 6-4 | 207 |
| 2011 | 26 | • Jon Baldwin, K.C. | 6-4 | 228 |
| 2000 | 21 | • Sylvester Morris, K.C. | 6-3 | 216 |
| 2001 | 8 | • David Terrell, Chi. | 6-3 | 213 |
| 2002 | 19 | • Ashley Lelie, Den. | 6-3 | 197 |
| 2004 | 9 | • Reggie Williams, Jac. | 6-3 | 223 |
| 2004 | 15 | • Michael Clayton, T.B. | 6-3 | 197 |
| 2005 | 3 | Braylon Edwards, Clev. | 6-3 | 211 |
| 2007 | 27 | Robert Meachem, N.O. | 6-3 | 211 |
| 2009 | 30 | Kenny Britt , Tenn. | 6-3 | 218 |
| 2010 | 22 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 6-3 | 230 |
| 2011 | 6 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 6-3 | 220 |
| 2012 | 13 | Michael Floyd, Ariz. | 6-3 | 225 |
| 2015 | 7 | Kevin White, Chi. | 6-3 | 215 |
| 2015 | 14 | DeVante Parker, Mia. | 6-3 | 209 |
| 2003 | 3 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 6-2 | 221 |
| 2004 | 3 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 6-2 | 223 |
| 2010 | 24 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 6-2 | 224 |
| 2013 | 29 | • Cordarrelle Patterson, Minn. | 6-2 | 220 |
| 2016 | 23 | Laquon Treadwell, Minn. | 6-2 | 221 |
Before I started on this endeavor, it was my belief the little guys would win out. But the numbers don’t show that. Instead, they come out a little bit behind.
With the small receivers, I went with players under 6-feet tall, plus a couple who are 6-foot-0 but weigh under 190. Fourteen receivers meet the description.
Of these 14, only three look like home-run picks – Odell Beckham Jr. and Santana Moss. I believe Brandin Cooks will wind up in this group, but following the same procedure as with Evans and Benjamin, probably a half-season too early to put him into that group. I also thought about putting Lee Evans in this group. Considering he was stuck playing for some bad teams in Buffalo, he had a nice career. But not quite in the rock star class.
And I am giving five receivers the bust rating. Two of the guys in this group had some NFL success – Ted Ginn Jr. and Peter Warrick. But relative to where they were picked, they were massive disappointments. That is, if you wind the clock back, no way would the Bengals select Warrick 4th overall, and no way would the Dolphins select Ginn 9th.
I’m not calling Tavon Austin a bust, but he seems to be destined to end up with a Warrick-Ginn like career. I could be more decisive and say there’s no way the Rams would select Austin 8th overall.
Two other receivers in this group had some NFL success – Santonio Holmes and Percy Harvin – but they didn’t do quite enough to be called great picks, I think. So I left them in the middle group.
| SMALL RECEIVERS SINCE 2000 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pick | Player | Height | Weight |
| 2007 | 9 | • Ted Ginn Jr., Mia. | 6-0 | 178 |
| 2016 | 21 | Will Fuller, Hou. | 6-0 | 186 |
| 2000 | 4 | • Peter Warrick, Cin. | 5-11 | 194 |
| 2001 | 25 | • Freddie Mitchell, Phil. | 5-11 | 187 |
| 2006 | 25 | Santonio Holmes, Pitt. | 5-11 | 187 |
| 2009 | 22 | Percy Harvin , Minn. | 5-11 | 192 |
| 2014 | 12 | Odell Beckham Jr., NYG | 5-11 | 198 |
| 2016 | 15 | Corey Coleman, Clev. | 5-11 | 190 |
| 2000 | 29 | • R. Jay Soward, Jac. | 5-10 | 177 |
| 2004 | 13 | Lee Evans, Buff. | 5-10 | 197 |
| 2005 | 22 | • Mark Clayton, Balt. | 5-10 | 193 |
| 2012 | 20 | Kendall Wright, Tenn. | 5-10 | 191 |
| 2014 | 20 | Brandin Cooks, N.O. | 5-10 | 189 |
| 2015 | 29 | Phillip Dorsett, Ind. | 5-10 | 185 |
| 2001 | 16 | Santana Moss, NYJ | 5-9 | 185 |
| 2013 | 8 | Tavon Austin, St.L. | 5-8 | 176 |
So what did we establish?
Well, very little, I suppose.
Chances are if you felt Corey Coleman was the best receiver yesterday, he’s probably still the guy you like. And if you are more of a Laquon Treadwell guy, you probably still think that he’ll be the best of the wide receivers.
The Bengals look like the losers in this wide receiver sweepstakes. After losing Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu, they were probably looking to select a pass catcher in the first round, and they watched three of them get selected in the three slots prior to their pick.
—Ian Allan