The Jets lost Chris Ivory to Jacksonville. They’re replacing him with Matt Forte. That should adversely affect their ability to punch in 1-yard touchdowns at the goal line. Right?
Ivory appears to be a more aggressive, violent runner. He’s a tackle breaker.
Forte is definitely older – 30. And some (not me) subscribe to theory that big warning bells should go off anytime a running back becomes a 30-year-old.
But I have the numbers in front of me. Over the last two years, Forte has been better in short-yardage situations.
Since 2014, 31 running backs have had at least 15 carries when their team has needed 1 yard to either score or keep a drive alive on third/fourth down. At luck would have it, both Forte and Ivory have had 37 of these carries, tying for 2nd-most.
Forte has gone 23 of 37 on these carries, which is slightly below average.
Ivory has gone only 20 of 37, which is the 5th-worst of all running backs.
These are just numbers, of course. They were playing in different offenses in different cities. Some might argue that Forte had a better offensive line or his carries were easier because of the play design.
But I think Forte should tend to be just fine for the Jets when the ball is on the 1.
| "AND ONE" RUSHING SINCE 2014 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Player | Good | Att | Pct |
| 1. | Joique Bell | 15 | 17 | 88.2% |
| 2. | Doug Martin | 19 | 22 | 86.4% |
| 3. | DeMarco Murray | 35 | 44 | 79.5% |
| 4. | LeVeon Bell | 15 | 19 | 78.9% |
| 5. | Lamar Miller | 20 | 27 | 74.1% |
| 6. | C.J. Anderson | 16 | 22 | 72.7% |
| 7. | Jeremy Hill | 20 | 29 | 69.0% |
| 8. | Jamaal Charles | 11 | 16 | 68.8% |
| 9. | Darren McFadden | 12 | 18 | 66.7% |
| 10. | Matt Asiata | 10 | 15 | 66.7% |
| 11. | Steven Jackson | 10 | 15 | 66.7% |
| 12. | LeGarrette Blount | 13 | 20 | 65.0% |
| 13. | Devonta Freeman | 11 | 17 | 64.7% |
| 14. | Marshawn Lynch | 21 | 33 | 63.6% |
| 15. | Alfred Morris | 12 | 19 | 63.2% |
| 16. | Arian Foster | 12 | 19 | 63.2% |
| 17. | DeAngelo Williams | 12 | 19 | 63.2% |
| 18. | Matt Forte | 23 | 37 | 62.2% |
| 19. | Latavius Murray | 13 | 21 | 61.9% |
| 20. | Alfred Blue | 11 | 18 | 61.1% |
| 21. | Ronnie Hillman | 11 | 18 | 61.1% |
| 22. | Rashad Jennings | 14 | 23 | 60.9% |
| 23. | Eddie Lacy | 17 | 28 | 60.7% |
| 24. | Mark Ingram | 17 | 28 | 60.7% |
| 25. | LeSean McCoy | 11 | 19 | 57.9% |
| 26. | Andre Williams | 12 | 22 | 54.5% |
| 27. | Chris Ivory | 20 | 37 | 54.1% |
| 28. | Frank Gore | 15 | 28 | 53.6% |
| 29. | Justin Forsett | 10 | 19 | 52.6% |
| 30. | Jonathan Stewart | 8 | 16 | 50.0% |
| 31. | Toby Gerhart | 8 | 18 | 44.4% |
—Ian Allan
