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Factoid

Fourth-round running backs

Few stars, but some recent hits at this stage of draft

Three running backs were selected in the fourth round of last week's draft: Tyler Ervin (Houston), Kenneth Dixon (Baltimore) and Devontae Booker (Denver). Based on how previous fourth-rounders have fared this century, what should the outlook be for these players?

This exercise is of debatable value. As the running back position has become devalued in the NFL, it's possible backs drafted in the fourth round today are closer in talent to backs drafted in the second and third round a decade ago. All we can say for sure is what the hit rate on those backs has been in the recent past, and hope it gives us some insight into what the hit rate will be for these three.

Since 2000, there have been 61 other backs selected in the fourth round. By my count, it's too early to say on six of those backs. I count 13 of the remaining 55 who I'd consider hits -- good starters or at least useful complementary running backs or passing down specialists, with some value in fantasy leagues. I've also noted the fullbacks (I think I got all of them) which accounts for another 9 players.

So if we've got 13 hits out of 46 tailbacks, that's about 28 percent. The other 33, or 72 percent, never did much of anything in the league, or never will.

Here's the list of fourth-rounders since 2000. Considering expectations for fourth-rounders should be fairly low anyway, I tried to grade generously, giving "Hit" scores to guys like Najeh Davenport and Roy Helu. Just a couple of maybe-stars leap out at you: Lamar Miller, Devonta Freeman, Marion Barber.

Maybe Dixon and Booker in particular would have been selected in the second or third rounds a few years ago. If so, their odds of success look a little better. But it will be a surprise if more than one of them hits as a quality NFL player.

FOURTH-ROUND RUNNING BACKS, 2000-PRESENT
YearPickPlayer, TeamHit/Miss
2015126Mike Davis, S.F.?
2015125Javorius Allen, Balt.?
2015106Jeremy Langford, Chi.?
2015108Jalston Fowler, Tenn.FB
2014117KaDeem Carey, Chi.?
2014103Devonta Freeman, Atl.Hit
2014138Lorenzo Taliaferro, Balt.?
2014130James White, N.E.?
2014113Andre Williams, NYGMiss
2014124DeAnthony Thomas, K.C.Miss
2013131Marcus Lattimore, S.F.Miss
2013125Johnathan Franklin, G.B.Miss
2012106Robert Turbin, Sea.Miss
201297Lamar Miller, Mia.Hit
2011126Bilal Powell, NYJHit
2011115Kendall Hunter, S.F.Miss
2011105Roy Helu, Wash.Hit
2011124Owen Marecic, Clev.FB
2011119Delone Carter, Ind.Miss
2011125Taiwan Jones, Oak.Miss
2011130Jamie Harper, Tenn.Miss
2010112Joe McKnight, NYJMiss
2009111Mike Goodson, Car.Miss
2009129Andre Brown, NYGMiss
2009134Gartrell Johnson, S.D.Miss
2008122Tashard Choice, Dall.Miss
2007100Michael Bush, Oak.Hit
2007111Dwayne Wright, Buff.Miss
2007107Antonio Pittman, N.O.Miss
2006117Leon Washington, NYJHit
2006132P.J. Daniels, Balt.Miss
2005109Marion Barber, Dall.Hit
2005110Brandon Jacobs, NYGHit
2005130Darren Sproles, S.D.Hit
2005127Alvin Pearman, Jac.Miss
2005120Manuel White, Wash.Miss
2005112Ciatrick Fason, Minn.Miss
2004119Mewelde Moore, Minn.Miss
2004128Cedric Cobbs, N.E.Miss
2003101Domanick Davis, Hou.Hit
2003118Jeremi Johnson, Cin.FB
2003108Quentin Griffin, Den.Miss
2003115Lee Suggs, Clev.Miss
2003121Justin Griffith, Atl.FB
2003132LaBrandon Toefield, Jac.Miss
200399Artose Pinner, Det.Miss
2003134Ovie Mughelli, Balt.FB
2003105Onterrio Smith, Minn.Miss
2002119Travis Stephens, T.B.Miss
2002107Omar Easy, K.C.FB
2002129Jamar Martin, Dall.Miss
2002135Najeh Davenport, G.B.Hit
200299Jonathan Wells, Hou.Miss
2001100Rudi Johnson, Cin.Hit
2001121Correll Buckhalter, Phil.Hit
2001108George Layne, K.C.FB
2001115Moran Norris, N.O.FB
200097Curtis Keaton, Cin.Miss
2000115Frank Moreau, K.C.Miss
2000117Deon Dyer, Mia.Miss
200096Terrelle Smith, N.O.FB

--Andy Richardson

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