Three running backs were selected in the fourth round of last week's draft: Tyler Ervin (Houston), Kenneth Dixon (Baltimore) and Devontae Booker (Denver). Based on how previous fourth-rounders have fared this century, what should the outlook be for these players?
This exercise is of debatable value. As the running back position has become devalued in the NFL, it's possible backs drafted in the fourth round today are closer in talent to backs drafted in the second and third round a decade ago. All we can say for sure is what the hit rate on those backs has been in the recent past, and hope it gives us some insight into what the hit rate will be for these three.
Since 2000, there have been 61 other backs selected in the fourth round. By my count, it's too early to say on six of those backs. I count 13 of the remaining 55 who I'd consider hits -- good starters or at least useful complementary running backs or passing down specialists, with some value in fantasy leagues. I've also noted the fullbacks (I think I got all of them) which accounts for another 9 players.
So if we've got 13 hits out of 46 tailbacks, that's about 28 percent. The other 33, or 72 percent, never did much of anything in the league, or never will.
Here's the list of fourth-rounders since 2000. Considering expectations for fourth-rounders should be fairly low anyway, I tried to grade generously, giving "Hit" scores to guys like Najeh Davenport and Roy Helu. Just a couple of maybe-stars leap out at you: Lamar Miller, Devonta Freeman, Marion Barber.
Maybe Dixon and Booker in particular would have been selected in the second or third rounds a few years ago. If so, their odds of success look a little better. But it will be a surprise if more than one of them hits as a quality NFL player.
FOURTH-ROUND RUNNING BACKS, 2000-PRESENT | |||
---|---|---|---|
Year | Pick | Player, Team | Hit/Miss |
2015 | 126 | Mike Davis, S.F. | ? |
2015 | 125 | Javorius Allen, Balt. | ? |
2015 | 106 | Jeremy Langford, Chi. | ? |
2015 | 108 | Jalston Fowler, Tenn. | FB |
2014 | 117 | KaDeem Carey, Chi. | ? |
2014 | 103 | Devonta Freeman, Atl. | Hit |
2014 | 138 | Lorenzo Taliaferro, Balt. | ? |
2014 | 130 | James White, N.E. | ? |
2014 | 113 | Andre Williams, NYG | Miss |
2014 | 124 | DeAnthony Thomas, K.C. | Miss |
2013 | 131 | Marcus Lattimore, S.F. | Miss |
2013 | 125 | Johnathan Franklin, G.B. | Miss |
2012 | 106 | Robert Turbin, Sea. | Miss |
2012 | 97 | Lamar Miller, Mia. | Hit |
2011 | 126 | Bilal Powell, NYJ | Hit |
2011 | 115 | Kendall Hunter, S.F. | Miss |
2011 | 105 | Roy Helu, Wash. | Hit |
2011 | 124 | Owen Marecic, Clev. | FB |
2011 | 119 | Delone Carter, Ind. | Miss |
2011 | 125 | Taiwan Jones, Oak. | Miss |
2011 | 130 | Jamie Harper, Tenn. | Miss |
2010 | 112 | Joe McKnight, NYJ | Miss |
2009 | 111 | Mike Goodson, Car. | Miss |
2009 | 129 | Andre Brown, NYG | Miss |
2009 | 134 | Gartrell Johnson, S.D. | Miss |
2008 | 122 | Tashard Choice, Dall. | Miss |
2007 | 100 | Michael Bush, Oak. | Hit |
2007 | 111 | Dwayne Wright, Buff. | Miss |
2007 | 107 | Antonio Pittman, N.O. | Miss |
2006 | 117 | Leon Washington, NYJ | Hit |
2006 | 132 | P.J. Daniels, Balt. | Miss |
2005 | 109 | Marion Barber, Dall. | Hit |
2005 | 110 | Brandon Jacobs, NYG | Hit |
2005 | 130 | Darren Sproles, S.D. | Hit |
2005 | 127 | Alvin Pearman, Jac. | Miss |
2005 | 120 | Manuel White, Wash. | Miss |
2005 | 112 | Ciatrick Fason, Minn. | Miss |
2004 | 119 | Mewelde Moore, Minn. | Miss |
2004 | 128 | Cedric Cobbs, N.E. | Miss |
2003 | 101 | Domanick Davis, Hou. | Hit |
2003 | 118 | Jeremi Johnson, Cin. | FB |
2003 | 108 | Quentin Griffin, Den. | Miss |
2003 | 115 | Lee Suggs, Clev. | Miss |
2003 | 121 | Justin Griffith, Atl. | FB |
2003 | 132 | LaBrandon Toefield, Jac. | Miss |
2003 | 99 | Artose Pinner, Det. | Miss |
2003 | 134 | Ovie Mughelli, Balt. | FB |
2003 | 105 | Onterrio Smith, Minn. | Miss |
2002 | 119 | Travis Stephens, T.B. | Miss |
2002 | 107 | Omar Easy, K.C. | FB |
2002 | 129 | Jamar Martin, Dall. | Miss |
2002 | 135 | Najeh Davenport, G.B. | Hit |
2002 | 99 | Jonathan Wells, Hou. | Miss |
2001 | 100 | Rudi Johnson, Cin. | Hit |
2001 | 121 | Correll Buckhalter, Phil. | Hit |
2001 | 108 | George Layne, K.C. | FB |
2001 | 115 | Moran Norris, N.O. | FB |
2000 | 97 | Curtis Keaton, Cin. | Miss |
2000 | 115 | Frank Moreau, K.C. | Miss |
2000 | 117 | Deon Dyer, Mia. | Miss |
2000 | 96 | Terrelle Smith, N.O. | FB |
--Andy Richardson