Anytime there’s a good rookie drafted into a great situation, I tend to get excited. We all do. And Ezekiel Elliott is that guy this year – the top running back on everyone’s board going to the team that has the best offensive line. DeMarco Murray almost ran for 2,000 yards behind this line two years ago.
But with these kind of situations, it also makes sense to take a step back and look at how others in similar situations have fared. That is, every time any running back is selected with a top-10 pick, there is considerable excitement, but a lot of those guys miss.
So as I settle down and ink out my initial projections for Elliott, I figured I’d take another look at the first-year numbers of all of those other top-10 backs.
Turns out there have been 12 of them in this century.
A third of those backs – four of them – were crushing, dominating players right out of the box, putting up top-10 numbers in their first year. That’s using standard fantasy scoring.
Adrian Peterson, LaDainian Tomlinson and Todd Gurley are certainly in that group. I’m putting Trent Richardson in there as well. His career later soured, but he was solid in that first season in Cleveland – the 10th-most productive running back in the league.
| TOP-10 RUNNING BACKS WHO HIT IT BIG | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Run | Rec | Tot | TD | Points | Rank |
| 2007 | 7 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 1,341 | 268 | 1,609 | 13 | 238.9 | 3 |
| 2001 | 5 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1,236 | 367 | 1,603 | 10 | 220.3 | 7 |
| 2012 | 3 | Trent Richardson, Clev. | 950 | 367 | 1,317 | 12 | 203.7 | 10 |
| 2015 | 10 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 1,106 | 188 | 1,294 | 10 | 189.4 | 5 |
On the other end of the scale, we have four running backs – another third – who were simply terrible. They simply weren’t as good as expected, and the production wasn’t there. These backs were all wildly overdrafted in every fantasy league in their first year. None of them finished in the top 40 at their position.
| TOP-10 RUNNING BACKS WHO WERE DISAPPOINTMENTS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Run | Rec | Tot | TD | Points | Rank |
| 2008 | 4 | Darren McFadden, Oak. | 499 | 285 | 784 | 4 | 102.4 | 44 |
| 2000 | 7 | Thomas Jones, Chi. | 373 | 208 | 581 | 2 | 70.1 | 42 |
| 2010 | 9 | C.J. Spiller, Buff. | 283 | 157 | 440 | 2 | 56.0 | 59 |
| 2005 | 4 | Cedric Benson, Chi. | 272 | 3 | 275 | 0 | 27.5 | 83 |
And finally, we have an equal third who had some success but didn’t really crush it. Jamal Lewis put up 1,660 total yards, but just 6 TDs. There were 15 other backs who put up better overall numbers that year. Reggie Bush was generally a disappointment with the Saints, running for only 565 yards. He managed to score 9 TDs and account for 742 yards as a receiver, but he wasn’t the playmaker folks were expecting. He was the 14th-best back in standard scoring (if you’re using PPR, then put him in the “hit it big” chart). Similarly, the two Auburn backs in 2005 had some good games, but weren’t dominant players.
| TOP-10 RUNNING BACKS WHO HAD SOME SUCCESS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Run | Rec | Tot | TD | Points | Rank |
| 2000 | 5 | Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 1,364 | 296 | 1,660 | 6 | 204.0 | 16 |
| 2006 | 2 | Reggie Bush, N.O. | 565 | 742 | 1,307 | 9 | 184.7 | 14 |
| 2005 | 5 | Cadillac Williams, T.B. | 1,178 | 81 | 1,259 | 6 | 161.9 | 19 |
| 2005 | 2 | Ronnie Brown, Mia. | 907 | 232 | 1,139 | 5 | 143.9 | 23 |
So where does that leave us with Ezekiel Elliott? Well, none of the guys listed above ran behind a line that’s as good as the one he’ll have in Dallas. But the Cowboys also have some other competent backs – Darren McFadden and Alfred Morris. He could be spelled a bit, and he might struggle to pick up the offense some. The run lanes and the system in Dallas will be different than what he was playing in with Ohio State.
Carlos Hyde, let the record show, put up great numbers at Ohio State. He went over 1,500 yards in his final year, averaging 7.3 yards per attempt – a yard more than what Elliott closed at last year. Hyde didn’t get on the field much in San Francisco in his first year.
So my gut tells me Elliott will be a top-5 back, but the logical part of my brain tells me it might be better to have him down around 10th among running backs.
I haven’t finalized my draft board, but I believe Elliott will come in at about 6th among running backs.
—Ian Allan