Will Fuller is fast. Damn fast – ran a 4.32 at the combine. But will that translate into NFL success? It certainly won’t hurt, but the track record of speedy receivers hasn’t been that good in recent years.
Wading into 40 times tends to be a slippery slope, with some guys not running at the combine. So some players have a pro day and end getting hand-timed 40s getting mixed in. If you poke around on the internet, you can find reports (in the New York Times, of all places) of Keyshawn Johnson running a 4.47, which is laughable – he’s never run under 4.6 in his life.
So for the purposes of this little study, I used only the electronic times from the combine, where everyone is running on the same surface and with the same clocks.
I’ve gone through the last 10 years and pulled out the names of all wide receivers who ran at least 4.40 and also were selected in the first three rounds of the draft. That is, these guys are all really fast, and they all also had at least one NFL team who believed they could be a viable NFL receiver. If a guy ran 4.36 but wasn’t selected until the 5th round, I left him out.
There are 27 wide receivers who met my parameters. By my count, eight of those guys were big hits. I’ve got them in bold below. All of these guys have had substantial NFL success, and it’s my belief that if NFL teams were granted do-overs, they would all be selected even higher than they were the first time around.
But there are also plenty of misses. By my count, there are nine of these 27 – a third – that have definitely been busts. And I’ve got a black dot in front of their names. With these guys, if NFL teams were given do-overs, no NFL team would have any interest in selecting any of these guys in the first three rounds of a draft.
Note that the only three wide receivers running faster than 4.33 have all missed – Darrius Heyward-Bey, Chad Jackson and Jason Hill. Not saying this is evidence that Will Fuller will miss. Just saying.
For the remaining third of the guys, I didn’t call them hits or misses. Andre Caldwell, for example, hasn’t had a stellar career, but he’s been around for a lot of years and just won a Super Bowl ring. He would be a bust as a first- or second-round pick, but he’s just a third-rounder. Similarly, Robert Meachem and Laurent Robinson had seasons with double-digit touchdowns; not great players, but whatever.
I didn’t know how to handle Tavon Austin. He’s clearly been a disappointment as a top-10 pick – hasn’t had 500 receiving yards in a season. But he’s scored some touchdowns and could still turn around his career. So I’m being generous and leaving him in purgatory for now.
Paul Richardson probably should be called a miss, but he’s been injury affected, so I’m leaving him in the middle group. He had a couple of downfield catches early in his career, and if not for the injuries, he potentially could have established himself as a viable wide receiver.
| WIDE RECEIVERS RUNNING 4.4 (last 10 years) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Time | Status |
| 2009 | • Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak. | 4.30 | miss |
| 2006 | • Chad Jackson, N.E. | 4.32 | miss |
| 2007 | • Jason Hill, S.F. | 4.32 | miss |
| 2016 | Will Fuller, Hou. | 4.32 | --- |
| 2009 | Mike Wallace, Pitt. | 4.33 | hit |
| 2014 | Brandin Cooks, N.O. | 4.33 | hit |
| 2015 | Phillip Dorsett, Ind. | 4.33 | --- |
| 2006 | • Willie Reid, Pitt. | 4.34 | miss |
| 2014 | John Brown, Ariz. | 4.34 | hit |
| 2013 | Tavon Austin, St.L. | 4.34 | --- |
| 2007 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 4.35 | hit |
| 2008 | DeSean Jackson, Phil. | 4.35 | hit |
| 2015 | Chris Conley, K.C. | 4.35 | --- |
| 2015 | Kevin White, Chi. | 4.35 | --- |
| 2012 | • Stephen Hill, NYJ | 4.36 | miss |
| 2008 | Andre Caldwell, Cin. | 4.37 | --- |
| 2006 | • Sinorice Moss, NYG | 4.38 | miss |
| 2009 | • Deon Butler, Sea. | 4.38 | miss |
| 2007 | Laurent Robinson, Atl. | 4.38 | --- |
| 2012 | • A.J. Jenkins, S.F. | 4.39 | miss |
| 2011 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 4.39 | hit |
| 2008 | Eddie Royal, Den. | 4.39 | hit |
| 2007 | Robert Meachem, N.O. | 4.39 | --- |
| 2008 | • Devin Thomas, Wash. | 4.40 | miss |
| 2015 | Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 4.40 | hit |
| 2014 | Donte Moncrief, Ind. | 4.40 | --- |
| 2014 | Paul Richardson, Sea. | 4.40 | --- |
—Ian Allan