When looking at a receiver who was really good and promising as a rookie, there are two ways to go. Curtain No. 1 is the idea that he’ll be more knowledgeable and confident in his second season. He knows the offense better and has had a chance to build a better rapport with his quarterback. This is the line of reasoning that most of us tend to subscribe to. (And by “most of us”, I mean that’s the way I lean, and I tend to think that most the readers see things the same way I do.)
But there is another option. Curtain No. 2 is the belief that what goes up must come down. That is, any time any player or team has a great season, it’s hard to match that kind of production. So if you have a guy putting up 1,300 yards and 12 TDs, it’s going to be hard for him to be even better in his second year. There’s also the idea that defenses make said player more of a priority.
So that’s the question of the day. The one I thought I’d test. And it applies to a couple of sophomore receivers. Both Amari Cooper and Tyler Lockett put up big numbers last year, but will they be even better in their second season? Or are they doomed for a downward turn?
So I have pulled out the top rookie receivers from the last 20 years, then looked at how they did in their second year. How many got better, and how many got worse?
I settled on 34 wide receivers (not including Cooper and Lockett). Of those 34, 16 posted better numbers in their second season, and 18 got worse. Only 12 of the 34 posted numbers that were at least 10 percent better. This works against the premise that when a guy has a good rookie season, all he needs to do is show up in Year No. 2 to get his Pro Bowl invitation.
Of the 34 receivers, three never really had a chance in their second season. Kelvin Benjamin and Anquan Boldin got hurt, and Justin Blackmon was hit with a substance abuse suspension. Setting those guys aside, the remaining 31 receivers combined scored 37 fewer touchdowns in their second year. They were slightly busier, averaging 4 more catches per season and 18 more yards per season.
On the chart below, the players are in order of their rookie production. (That is, Moss, Beckham and Boldin posted the best first-year numbers, using fantasy scoring of 6 points for touchdowns and 1 point for every 10 yards). Note that of the top 10 rookie receivers, only one was better in his second year.
If you go down to the bottom, it’s the opposite. Of the 12 least productive of these receivers, all but two were better in their second year (and one of the exceptions was Blackmon, who had the suspension). The other decliner, Eddie Royal, missed the final two games with a neck injury but was underperforming prior.
Those trends support the regression to the mean line of thinking – that what goes up must come down.
For our 2016 guys, Lockett is down near the bottom, so he’s got room to grow. And Cooper, while having a fine first season, didn’t know it out of the park statistically. He’s in that mid-level, where there as many people improving as declining. I think Cooper will have a good season.
| SOPHOMORE WIDE RECEIVERS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Yards | TD | Improve? |
| 1999 | Randy Moss, Minn. | 80 | 1,413 | 12 | -9% |
| 2015 | Odell Beckham Jr., NYG | 96 | 1,450 | 13 | 10% |
| 2004 | • Anquan Boldin , Ariz. | 56 | 623 | 1 | -63% |
| 2015 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 74 | 1,206 | 3 | -22% |
| 2011 | Mike Williams, T.B. | 65 | 771 | 3 | -41% |
| 2005 | Michael Clayton, T.B. | 32 | 372 | 0 | -77% |
| 1997 | Eddie Kennison, St.L. | 25 | 404 | 0 | -74% |
| 1996 | Joey Galloway, Sea. | 57 | 987 | 8 | -7% |
| 2015 | • Kelvin Benjamin, Car. | 0 | 0 | 0 | -100% |
| 2014 | Keenan Allen, S.D. | 77 | 783 | 4 | -33% |
| 2007 | Marques Colston, N.O. | 98 | 1,202 | 11 | 23% |
| 1997 | Terry Glenn, N.E. | 27 | 431 | 2 | -63% |
| 2012 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 97 | 1,350 | 11 | 36% |
| 2000 | Kevin Johnson, Clev. | 57 | 669 | 0 | -54% |
| 2012 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 79 | 1,198 | 10 | 25% |
| 2016 | Amari Cooper, Oak. | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2005 | Lee Evans, Buff. | 48 | 743 | 7 | -16% |
| 2015 | Jordan Matthews, Phil. | 85 | 997 | 8 | 9% |
| 2015 | Sammy Watkins, Buff. | 60 | 1,047 | 9 | 18% |
| 1997 | Keyshawn Johnson, NYJ | 70 | 963 | 5 | -5% |
| 1997 | Marvin Harrison, Ind. | 73 | 866 | 6 | -7% |
| 2002 | Chris Chambers, Mia. | 52 | 734 | 3 | -30% |
| 2005 | Roy Williams, Det. | 45 | 687 | 8 | -10% |
| 2008 | Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | 86 | 1,022 | 7 | 11% |
| 2013 | T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 82 | 1,083 | 5 | 8% |
| 2009 | Eddie Royal, Den. | 37 | 345 | 2 | -64% |
| 2010 | Percy Harvin , Minn. | 71 | 868 | 7 | 1% |
| 2012 | Torrey Smith, Balt. | 49 | 855 | 8 | 6% |
| 2005 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 103 | 1,409 | 10 | 59% |
| 2004 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 79 | 1,142 | 6 | 24% |
| 2013 | • Justin Blackmon, Jac. | 29 | 415 | 1 | -59% |
| 2009 | DeSean Jackson, Phil. | 62 | 1,156 | 12 | 63% |
| 2010 | Hakeem Nicks , NYG | 79 | 1,052 | 11 | 49% |
| 2000 | Torry Holt, St.L. | 82 | 1,635 | 6 | 74% |
| 2016 | Tyler Lockett, Sea. | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2010 | Mike Wallace , Pitt. | 60 | 1,257 | 10 | 66% |
—Ian Allan