I posted an age/performance chart for wide receivers a few days back, and I wanted to weigh in with something similar for running backs. Namely, when can we expect to see the best production out of a player at that position?
Some like to kick around the idea that you never select a 30-year-old running back, but there are 30-year-olds who run for 1,000-plus yards every year. So that seems kind of heavy handed (and most who toss out that theory, I’m figuring) have never even glanced at any of the numbers.
Similarly, it’s reasonable to suppose that a running back doesn’t do his best work right out of the box. It takes a year or two to learn the offense and master the craft.
Anyway, below is a quick-hit glance at the issue.
I took my overall running back file, and I pulled out every season in the last 20 years in which a running back has scored at least 160 fantasy points (using standard scoring). That seems like a nice round number – 10 points per game.
Then I narrowed it down to only the best season for each player. That is, when did the player put up the very best numbers of his career? When did he pop for 1,600-plus yards and 15 touchdowns?
Turns out 135 running backs made the cut.
Only one running back posted best-ever numbers as a 31-year-old (Curtis Martin), and only one did it as a 32-year-old (Fred Jackson). Nobody older than 32.
Very few down at 20 and 21.
The prime window seems to start for 23-year-olds and run through 27-year-olds. That’s when a guy is most likely to totally shred it. Still a decent number for 28-year-olds, but a decline.
It’s rare to see career-best for 29-year-olds (just 7), and only 4 put up their best numbers as 30-year-olds.
Not that 29-year-olds and 30-year-olds can be productive, but they’re not as likely to totally blow the lid off it, putting up the best numbers of their career.
CAREER-BEST SEASONS (RBs) | |
---|---|
Age | No |
20 | 2 |
21 | 4 |
22 | 9 |
23 | 24 |
24 | 18 |
25 | 14 |
26 | 18 |
27 | 20 |
28 | 13 |
29 | 7 |
30 | 4 |
31 | 1 |
32 | 1 |
And here are the 135 seasons that qualified to be counted …
CAREER-BEST SEASONS BY RUNNING BACKS (1995-2015) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Age | Yards | TD | Points |
2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 27 | 2,323 | 31 | 426.3 |
2000 | Marshall Faulk, St.L. | 27 | 2,189 | 26 | 378.9 |
2003 | Priest Holmes, K.C. | 29 | 2,110 | 27 | 373.0 |
1995 | Emmitt Smith, Dall. | 26 | 2,148 | 25 | 364.8 |
2005 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 28 | 1,958 | 28 | 363.8 |
1998 | Terrell Davis, Den. | 25 | 2,225 | 23 | 360.5 |
2009 | Chris Johnson, Tenn. | 23 | 2,509 | 16 | 348.9 |
2003 | Ahman Green, G.B. | 26 | 2,250 | 20 | 345.0 |
2000 | Edgerrin James, Ind. | 22 | 2,303 | 18 | 340.3 |
2005 | Larry Johnson, K.C. | 25 | 2,093 | 21 | 335.3 |
2010 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 24 | 2,220 | 18 | 330.0 |
2006 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 23 | 2,334 | 16 | 329.4 |
2002 | Ricky Williams, Mia. | 25 | 2,216 | 17 | 323.6 |
1997 | Barry Sanders, Det. | 29 | 2,358 | 14 | 319.8 |
1998 | Jamal Anderson, Atl. | 25 | 2,165 | 16 | 312.5 |
2013 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 26 | 1,980 | 19 | 312.0 |
2012 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 27 | 2,314 | 13 | 311.4 |
2003 | Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 24 | 2,271 | 14 | 311.1 |
2005 | Tiki Barber, NYG | 30 | 2,390 | 11 | 307.0 |
2014 | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 26 | 2,261 | 13 | 304.1 |
2011 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 24 | 2,068 | 15 | 300.8 |
2000 | Eddie George, Tenn. | 26 | 1,962 | 16 | 292.2 |
2002 | Clinton Portis, Den. | 20 | 1,872 | 17 | 289.2 |
2014 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 22 | 2,215 | 11 | 287.5 |
2008 | DeAngelo Williams, Car. | 25 | 1,636 | 20 | 285.6 |
2011 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 23 | 1,624 | 20 | 282.4 |
2007 | Brian Westbrook, Phil. | 27 | 2,104 | 12 | 282.4 |
1996 | Terry Allen, Wash. | 28 | 1,547 | 21 | 280.7 |
2004 | Curtis Martin, NYJ | 31 | 1,942 | 14 | 278.2 |
2008 | Michael Turner, Atl. | 26 | 1,740 | 17 | 276.0 |
2009 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 24 | 1,765 | 16 | 272.5 |
2006 | Frank Gore, S.F. | 23 | 2,180 | 9 | 272.0 |
2002 | Deuce McAllister, N.O. | 23 | 1,740 | 16 | 270.0 |
2014 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 28 | 1,673 | 17 | 269.3 |
2006 | Willie Parker, Pitt. | 25 | 1,716 | 16 | 267.6 |
2013 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 27 | 1,933 | 12 | 267.3 |
1998 | Garrison Hearst, S.F. | 27 | 2,105 | 9 | 266.5 |
1998 | Fred Taylor, Jac. | 22 | 1,644 | 17 | 266.4 |
2012 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 23 | 1,926 | 12 | 264.6 |
1996 | Ricky Watters, Phil. | 27 | 1,855 | 13 | 263.5 |
2004 | Domanick Davis, Hou. | 23 | 1,776 | 14 | 261.6 |
2000 | Mike Anderson, Den. | 26 | 1,669 | 15 | 258.9 |
2002 | Travis Henry, Buff. | 22 | 1,747 | 14 | 258.7 |
2002 | Charlie Garner, Oak. | 30 | 1,903 | 11 | 256.3 |
1999 | Stephen Davis, Wash. | 25 | 1,516 | 17 | 255.6 |
1995 | Chris Warren, Sea. | 27 | 1,593 | 16 | 255.3 |
1997 | Dorsey Levens, G.B. | 27 | 1,805 | 12 | 254.5 |
2004 | Corey Dillon, N.E. | 29 | 1,738 | 13 | 253.8 |
2015 | Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 23 | 1,634 | 14 | 247.4 |
2012 | Alfred Morris, Wash. | 23 | 1,690 | 13 | 247.0 |
2000 | Robert Smith, Minn. | 28 | 1,869 | 10 | 246.9 |
2010 | Peyton Hillis, Clev. | 24 | 1,654 | 13 | 243.4 |
2008 | Thomas Jones, NYJ | 30 | 1,519 | 15 | 241.9 |
2013 | Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 26 | 1,586 | 13 | 236.6 |
2007 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | 24 | 1,436 | 15 | 235.6 |
2014 | Eddie Lacy, G.B. | 24 | 1,566 | 13 | 234.6 |
1997 | Jerome Bettis, Pitt. | 25 | 1,775 | 9 | 231.5 |
2000 | Lamar Smith, Mia. | 29 | 1,340 | 16 | 230.0 |
2005 | Rudi Johnson, Cin. | 25 | 1,548 | 12 | 226.8 |
2005 | LaMont Jordan, Oak. | 26 | 1,588 | 11 | 226.8 |
2010 | Darren McFadden, Oak. | 23 | 1,664 | 10 | 226.4 |
2008 | Steve Slaton, Hou. | 22 | 1,659 | 10 | 225.9 |
2010 | Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt. | 23 | 1,440 | 13 | 222.0 |
2000 | James Stewart, Jac. | 28 | 1,471 | 11 | 219.1 |
2012 | C.J. Spiller, Buff. | 25 | 1,703 | 8 | 218.3 |
1997 | Napoleon Kaufman, Oak. | 24 | 1,697 | 8 | 217.7 |
1998 | Robert Edwards, N.E. | 23 | 1,446 | 12 | 216.6 |
1995 | Derek Loville, S.F. | 27 | 1,385 | 13 | 216.5 |
1995 | Edgar Bennett, G.B. | 26 | 1,715 | 7 | 213.5 |
2001 | Antowain Smith, N.E. | 29 | 1,349 | 13 | 212.9 |
1997 | Karim Abdul-Jabbar, Mia. | 23 | 1,153 | 16 | 211.3 |
2009 | Ryan Grant, G.B. | 26 | 1,450 | 11 | 211.0 |
2000 | Warrick Dunn, T.B. | 25 | 1,555 | 9 | 209.5 |
2004 | Willis McGahee, Buff. | 22 | 1,297 | 13 | 207.7 |
2002 | Duce Staley, Phil. | 27 | 1,570 | 8 | 207.0 |
1995 | Harvey Williams, Rai. | 28 | 1,489 | 9 | 206.9 |
2010 | Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG | 24 | 1,549 | 8 | 204.9 |
2012 | Trent Richardson, Clev. | 22 | 1,317 | 12 | 203.7 |
2012 | Stevan Ridley, N.E. | 23 | 1,314 | 12 | 203.4 |
2014 | Justin Forsett, Balt. | 28 | 1,529 | 8 | 202.9 |
2008 | Brandon Jacobs, NYG | 26 | 1,125 | 15 | 202.5 |
2002 | Michael Bennett, Minn. | 24 | 1,647 | 6 | 200.7 |
1995 | Errict Rhett, T.B. | 24 | 1,317 | 11 | 197.7 |
2007 | Marion Barber, Dall. | 24 | 1,257 | 12 | 197.7 |
2004 | Reuben Droughns, Den. | 26 | 1,481 | 8 | 196.1 |
2009 | Jonathan Stewart, Car. | 22 | 1,272 | 11 | 193.2 |
2013 | Reggie Bush, Det. | 28 | 1,512 | 7 | 193.2 |
2001 | Dominic Rhodes, Ind. | 22 | 1,328 | 10 | 192.8 |
2004 | Michael Pittman, T.B. | 29 | 1,317 | 10 | 191.7 |
2014 | Lamar Miller, Mia. | 23 | 1,374 | 9 | 191.4 |
1995 | Ironhead Heyward, Atl. | 28 | 1,433 | 8 | 191.3 |
2011 | Darren Sproles, N.O. | 28 | 1,313 | 10 | 191.3 |
2011 | Ryan Mathews, S.D. | 23 | 1,546 | 6 | 190.6 |
2006 | Ladell Betts, Wash. | 27 | 1,599 | 5 | 189.9 |
2015 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 21 | 1,294 | 10 | 189.4 |
2014 | Jeremy Hill, Cin. | 21 | 1,339 | 9 | 187.9 |
2013 | Fred Jackson, Buff. | 32 | 1,277 | 10 | 187.7 |
2011 | Michael Bush, Oak. | 27 | 1,395 | 8 | 187.5 |
2010 | BenJarvus Green-Ellis, N.E. | 25 | 1,093 | 13 | 187.3 |
2003 | Moe Williams, Minn. | 29 | 1,389 | 8 | 186.9 |
2006 | Chester Taylor, Minn. | 26 | 1,504 | 6 | 186.4 |
1995 | Bernie Parmalee, Mia. | 27 | 1,223 | 10 | 182.3 |
2007 | Earnest Graham, T.B. | 27 | 1,222 | 10 | 182.2 |
2015 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 23 | 1,038 | 13 | 181.8 |
1998 | Adrian Murrell, Ariz. | 27 | 1,211 | 10 | 181.1 |
2008 | Ronnie Brown, Mia. | 26 | 1,170 | 10 | 181.0 |
2000 | Tyrone Wheatley, Oak. | 28 | 1,202 | 10 | 180.2 |
2001 | Anthony Thomas, Chi. | 23 | 1,361 | 7 | 180.1 |
2010 | Cedric Benson, Cin. | 27 | 1,289 | 8 | 178.9 |
2002 | Marcel Shipp, Ariz. | 24 | 1,247 | 9 | 178.7 |
2014 | C.J. Anderson, Den. | 23 | 1,173 | 10 | 177.3 |
2015 | Chris Ivory, NYJ | 27 | 1,287 | 8 | 176.7 |
1999 | Olandis Gary, Den. | 24 | 1,318 | 7 | 175.8 |
2003 | Kevan Barlow, S.F. | 24 | 1,331 | 7 | 175.1 |
1997 | Raymont Harris, Chi. | 26 | 1,148 | 10 | 174.8 |
2008 | Kevin Smith, Det. | 21 | 1,262 | 8 | 174.2 |
1996 | Larry Centers, Ariz. | 28 | 1,191 | 9 | 173.1 |
1995 | Rashaan Salaam, Chi. | 20 | 1,130 | 10 | 173.0 |
1999 | Mike Alstott, T.B. | 25 | 1,188 | 9 | 172.8 |
2011 | Beanie Wells, Ariz. | 23 | 1,099 | 10 | 169.9 |
2013 | Joique Bell, Det. | 27 | 1,197 | 8 | 169.7 |
2012 | Shonn Greene, NYJ | 27 | 1,214 | 8 | 169.4 |
2013 | Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 21 | 1,209 | 8 | 168.9 |
2008 | LenDale White, Tenn. | 23 | 789 | 15 | 168.9 |
2006 | Kevin Jones, Det. | 24 | 1,209 | 8 | 168.9 |
2008 | LeRon McClain, Balt. | 23 | 1,025 | 11 | 168.5 |
1996 | Anthony Johnson, Car. | 28 | 1,312 | 6 | 167.2 |
2015 | Latavius Murray, Oak. | 25 | 1,298 | 6 | 165.8 |
2014 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 24 | 1,109 | 9 | 164.9 |
2001 | Stacey Mack, Jac. | 26 | 1,042 | 10 | 164.2 |
2004 | Nick Goings, Car. | 26 | 1,215 | 7 | 163.5 |
2015 | Danny Woodhead, S.D. | 30 | 1,091 | 9 | 163.1 |
2010 | Mike Tolbert, S.D. | 24 | 951 | 11 | 163.1 |
2008 | Pierre Thomas, N.O. | 23 | 909 | 12 | 162.9 |
2005 | Cadillac Williams, T.B. | 23 | 1,259 | 6 | 161.9 |