Ian Allan

May 17, 2016

Age and quarterbacks

When do career-best seasons for quarterback occur?

I have posted some age/performance numbers for backs and receivers in recent days, showing that such players tend to put up the best numbers of their career when they’re in the window of 23 to 27 years old. Not always, but that’s the most popular area. Now let’s compare that the quarterback position.

With quarterbacks, smarts and experience start to play a more crucial role, so there are more great seasons later in careers. The three best quarterback seasons, in fact, have all been authored by quarterbacks older than 30 – Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Tom Brady.

On the chart below, I’m not listing all quarterbacks seasons. I’m taking just the No. 1 best season for each quarterback. And I’m listing the top 60 from the last 20 years (actually 21 years, I’m using the 1995 through 2015 seasons).

There are some flaws/pollutants in the study. Most notably, some of the players haven’t had a chance to finish their careers yet. Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston, Blake Bortles and Matthew Stafford, for example, are all under 30, so we haven’t had a chance yet to see if they’ll have their best season when they’re a 32-year-old. I’ve got such guys tagged with a black dot.

But I do have a 20-year time period and 60 different quarterbacks, so some trends should emerge.

Of the 60 quarterbacks, 22 are 30-plus years old and 38 are under 30. Of the 38 under 30, 13 are still active starters and under 30 years old, so some of those guys might have career-best seasons later – Luck, Dalton, Bortles, Carr, Winston, Stafford, for example.

The most popular age was 30, with nine guys. Next were 27-year-olds, with 8, and 24-year-olds, with 7.

There’s decent traffic beween 24 and 30 (4-6 quarterbacks in all of those seasons) so I’ll call that the prime window. This is a little lower than I expected. Only 12 quarterbacks put up the best numbers of their career as 31-plus year olds.

BEST SEASON, QBs
Age	No
21	1
22	1
23	1
24	7
25	6
26	5
27	8
28	4
29	5
30	9
31	1
32	4
33	1
34	2
35	2
36	2
37	1

These are the 60 quarterbacks I used …

CAREER-BEST SEASONS BY QUARTERBACKS (1995-2015)
Year	Player	Avg	Pass	TDP	Run	TDR	Points
2013	Peyton Manning, Den.	37	5,477	55	-31	1	497
2011	Drew Brees, N.O.	32	5,476	46	86	1	476
2007	Tom Brady, N.E.	30	4,806	50	98	2	462
2011	Aaron Rodgers, G.B.	27	4,643	45	257	3	456
2015	• Cam Newton, Car.	26	3,837	35	636	10	455
2004	Daunte Culpepper, Minn.	27	4,717	39	406	2	450
2014	• Andrew Luck, Ind.	24	4,761	40	273	3	443
1998	Steve Young, S.F.	36	4,170	36	454	6	442
2011	• Matthew Stafford, Det.	23	5,038	41	78	0	428
1995	Brett Favre, G.B.	25	4,413	38	181	3	409
2015	• Blake Bortles, Jac.	27	4,428	35	310	2	406
2000	Jeff Garcia, S.F.	30	4,278	31	414	4	405
1999	Kurt Warner, St.L.	28	4,353	41	92	1	399
2015	• Russell Wilson, Sea.	26	4,024	34	553	1	399
1999	Steve Beuerlein, Car.	34	4,436	36	124	2	390
2014	Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.	32	4,952	32	27	0	384
2012	Matt Ryan, Atl.	30	4,719	32	141	1	384
2015	Carson Palmer, Ariz.	35	4,671	35	24	1	382
1995	Scott Mitchell, Det.	27	4,338	32	104	4	381
1996	Vinny Testaverde, Balt.	32	4,177	33	188	2	380
2007	Tony Romo, Dall.	27	4,211	36	129	2	379
2013	• Andy Dalton, Cin.	25	4,293	33	183	2	377
2002	Rich Gannon, Oak.	36	4,689	26	156	3	376
2011	Eli Manning, NYG	30	4,933	29	15	1	370
2012	• Robert Griffin III, Wash.	22	3,200	20	815	7	364
2015	• Kirk Cousins, Wash.	27	4,166	29	48	5	363
2010	Philip Rivers, S.D.	28	4,710	30	52	0	363
2008	Jay Cutler, Den.	25	4,526	25	200	2	362
2009	Matt Schaub, Hou.	28	4,770	29	57	0	362
1996	Mark Brunell, Jac.	25	4,367	19	396	3	362
2010	Michael Vick, Phil.	30	3,018	21	676	9	359
2015	Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ	32	3,905	31	270	2	358
2004	Donovan McNabb, Phil.	27	3,875	31	220	3	358
1997	Kordell Stewart, Pitt.	24	3,020	21	476	11	351
2015	• Jameis Winston, T.B.	21	4,042	22	210	6	349
2004	Trent Green, K.C.	34	4,591	27	85	0	348
1995	Jeff Blake, Cin.	24	3,822	28	309	2	348
2014	• Ryan Tannehill, Mia.	26	4,045	27	311	1	347
2015	• Derek Carr, Oak.	24	3,987	32	138	0	343
2001	Aaron Brooks, N.O.	25	3,832	26	358	1	339
2004	Jake Plummer, Den.	29	4,089	27	202	1	339
2000	Elvis Grbac, K.C.	30	4,169	28	110	1	337
2002	Drew Bledsoe, Buff.	30	4,359	24	67	2	333
2007	Derek Anderson, Clev.	24	3,787	29	70	3	332
1995	John Elway, Den.	35	3,970	26	176	1	330
2001	Steve McNair, Tenn.	28	3,350	21	414	5	329
2004	Jake Delhomme, Car.	29	3,886	29	71	1	327
2012	Josh Freeman, T.B.	24	4,065	27	139	0	327
2014	Joe Flacco, Balt.	29	3,986	27	70	2	326
2011	Mark Sanchez, NYJ	24	3,474	26	103	6	324
2006	Jon Kitna, Det.	33	4,208	21	156	2	322
2003	Matt Hasselbeck, Sea.	27	3,841	26	125	2	321
2013	• Colin Kaepernick, S.F.	25	3,197	21	524	4	320
1997	Jeff George, Oak.	29	3,917	29	44	0	320
2015	Alex Smith, K.C.	31	3,486	20	498	2	320
1995	Erik Kramer, Chic.	30	3,838	29	39	1	318
2006	Marc Bulger, St.L.	29	4,301	24	44	0	317
2015	• Tyrod Taylor, Buff.	26	3,035	20	568	4	315
2008	Matt Cassel, N.E.	26	3,693	21	270	2	312
1999	Brad Johnson, Wash.	30	4,005	24	31	2	311

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