I have an additional thought on the rankings article I put up earlier in the day. It occurred to me that I didn’t address the issue of whether it is any different than the other system. While a bunch more numbers are being calculated, do the rankings end up being any different.
Ends up they do.
Again, I’m looking at the best players from the last five years. But the same concept can be used to grade players for the upcoming season.
Traditional VBD. In this system, there’s a baseline at each position, and players receive credit for production beyond that point. For this study, I’m using the 16th quarterback and tight end as the starting points at those positions. There are twice as many running backs and wide receivers, so I’m using 32 for those.
Enhanced VBD. The principal is the same, but instead of looking at just the difference between players 1 and 16 (or more for RB, WR) you look at the difference between the player and all of the players behind him.
This is a deal I’m still looking at. I don’t have conclusions yet.
But looking at the rankings for the last five years, quarterbacks and tight ends tend to grade out higher in the traditional system. I believe this is because there wasn’t as much depth at those positions in some of those years.
Anyway, here are the two lists side by side, with the usual VBD list on the left, and the new system on the right. To make the positions stand out a little more, I have wide receivers in bold, and I’ve added dots in front of the tight ends and quarterbacks.
In the new system, there are 11 more wide receivers but 11 fewer quarterbacks.
| TOP 100 PLAYERS OF THE LAST FIVE YEARS | |
|---|---|
| Traditional VBD | Enhanced VBD |
| '12 RB Adrian Peterson, Minn. | '12 RB Adrian Peterson, Minn. |
| '11 QB • Drew Brees, N.O. | '13 RB Jamaal Charles, K.C. |
| '14 RB DeMarco Murray, Dall. | '14 RB DeMarco Murray, Dall. |
| '13 RB Jamaal Charles, K.C. | '11 RB Ray Rice, Balt. |
| '13 QB • Peyton Manning, Den. | '14 RB LeVeon Bell, Pitt. |
| '11 QB • Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | '11 WR Calvin Johnson, Det. |
| '11 RB Ray Rice, Balt. | '13 RB LeSean McCoy, Phil. |
| '14 RB LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | '11 RB LeSean McCoy, Phil. |
| '11 QB • Tom Brady, N.E. | '14 RB Marshawn Lynch, Sea. |
| '11 QB • Cam Newton, Car. | '14 WR Antonio Brown, Pitt. |
| '12 RB Arian Foster, Hou. | '12 RB Arian Foster, Hou. |
| '12 RB Doug Martin, T.B. | '13 RB Matt Forte, Chi. |
| '11 RB LeSean McCoy, Phil. | '12 RB Doug Martin, T.B. |
| '13 RB LeSean McCoy, Phil. | '15 RB Devonta Freeman, Atl. |
| '14 RB Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | '11 RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. |
| '11 QB • Matthew Stafford, Det. | '15 WR Antonio Brown, Pitt. |
| '11 TE •• Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | '14 RB Matt Forte, Chi. |
| '12 RB Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | '15 RB Adrian Peterson, Minn. |
| '12 RB Alfred Morris, Wash. | '11 RB Arian Foster, Hou. |
| '11 WR Calvin Johnson, Det. | '12 RB Marshawn Lynch, Sea. |
| '13 RB Matt Forte, Chi. | '12 RB Alfred Morris, Wash. |
| '11 RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | '14 RB Arian Foster, Hou. |
| '14 WR Antonio Brown, Pitt. | '15 WR Julio Jones, Atl. |
| '14 RB Matt Forte, Chi. | '14 RB Eddie Lacy, G.B. |
| '12 QB • Drew Brees, N.O. | '13 QB • Peyton Manning, Den. |
| '11 RB Arian Foster, Hou. | '13 RB Marshawn Lynch, Sea. |
| '15 WR Antonio Brown, Pitt. | '15 WR Brandon Marshall, NYJ |
| '15 QB • Cam Newton, Car. | '13 RB Knowshon Moreno, Den. |
| '13 TE •• Jimmy Graham, N.O. | '14 WR Jordy Nelson, G.B. |
| '15 RB Devonta Freeman, Atl. | '14 WR Demaryius Thomas, Den. |
| '13 QB • Drew Brees, N.O. | '12 WR Calvin Johnson, Det. |
| '14 RB Arian Foster, Hou. | '13 WR Josh Gordon, Clev. |
| '14 QB • Andrew Luck, Ind. | '13 WR Demaryius Thomas, Den. |
| '12 RB Ray Rice, Balt. | '14 WR Dez Bryant, Dall. |
| '14 RB Eddie Lacy, G.B. | '11 WR Jordy Nelson, G.B. |
| '13 RB Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | '13 WR Calvin Johnson, Det. |
| '12 RB C.J. Spiller, Buff. | '11 QB • Drew Brees, N.O. |
| '15 RB Adrian Peterson, Minn. | '11 WR Wes Welker, N.E. |
| '15 WR Julio Jones, Atl. | '11 TE •• Rob Gronkowski, N.E. |
| '13 RB Knowshon Moreno, Den. | '15 WR Allen Robinson, Jac. |
| '12 RB Jamaal Charles, K.C. | '15 WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG |
| '15 WR Brandon Marshall, NYJ | '14 RB Jamaal Charles, K.C. |
| '11 TE •• Jimmy Graham, N.O. | '12 RB Ray Rice, Balt. |
| '14 WR Jordy Nelson, G.B. | '12 WR Brandon Marshall, Chi. |
| '14 WR Demaryius Thomas, Den. | '15 RB Doug Martin, T.B. |
| '15 TE •• Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | '15 WR DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. |
| '12 QB • Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | '12 RB C.J. Spiller, Buff. |
| '12 WR Calvin Johnson, Det. | '11 WR Victor Cruz, NYG |
| '13 WR Josh Gordon, Clev. | '12 WR Dez Bryant, Dall. |
| '12 RB Frank Gore, S.F. | '11 RB Marshawn Lynch, Sea. |
| '13 WR Demaryius Thomas, Den. | '11 QB • Aaron Rodgers, G.B. |
| '14 WR Dez Bryant, Dall. | '13 TE •• Jimmy Graham, N.O. |
| '14 RB Jamaal Charles, K.C. | '13 WR A.J. Green, Cin. |
| '12 RB Trent Richardson, Clev. | '12 RB Jamaal Charles, K.C. |
| '12 RB Stevan Ridley, N.E. | '11 RB Michael Turner, Atl. |
| '14 TE •• Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | '14 RB Justin Forsett, Balt. |
| '12 QB • Tom Brady, N.E. | '14 WR Randall Cobb, G.B. |
| '13 WR Calvin Johnson, Det. | '12 WR A.J. Green, Cin. |
| '15 WR Allen Robinson, Jac. | '13 WR Brandon Marshall, Chi. |
| '15 WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG | '14 WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG |
| '11 WR Jordy Nelson, G.B. | '11 QB • Tom Brady, N.E. |
| '11 RB Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | '11 QB • Cam Newton, Car. |
| '12 WR Brandon Marshall, Chi. | '13 WR Antonio Brown, Pitt. |
| '11 QB • Eli Manning, NYG | '12 WR Demaryius Thomas, Den. |
| '11 WR Wes Welker, N.E. | '13 RB Adrian Peterson, Minn. |
| '15 WR DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | '13 RB Eddie Lacy, G.B. |
| '14 QB • Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | '15 RB DeAngelo Williams, Pitt. |
| '11 RB Michael Turner, Atl. | '13 QB • Drew Brees, N.O. |
| '15 RB Doug Martin, T.B. | '12 RB Frank Gore, S.F. |
| '12 WR Dez Bryant, Dall. | '12 RB Trent Richardson, Clev. |
| '14 RB Justin Forsett, Balt. | '12 RB Stevan Ridley, N.E. |
| '11 WR Victor Cruz, NYG | '13 WR Dez Bryant, Dall. |
| '12 QB • Cam Newton, Car. | '13 RB DeMarco Murray, Dall. |
| '13 RB Adrian Peterson, Minn. | '15 QB • Cam Newton, Car. |
| '13 RB Eddie Lacy, G.B. | '14 WR Emmanuel Sanders, Den. |
| '13 WR A.J. Green, Cin. | '14 QB • Andrew Luck, Ind. |
| '13 RB DeMarco Murray, Dall. | '13 WR Alshon Jeffery, Chi. |
| '12 WR A.J. Green, Cin. | '15 RB Todd Gurley, St.L. |
| '15 TE •• Jordan Reed, Wash. | '13 RB Chris Johnson, Tenn. |
| '12 RB Chris Johnson, Tenn. | '12 QB • Drew Brees, N.O. |
| '13 WR Brandon Marshall, Chi. | '14 RB Lamar Miller, Mia. |
| '14 WR Randall Cobb, G.B. | '11 QB • Matthew Stafford, Det. |
| '12 WR Demaryius Thomas, Den. | '11 TE •• Jimmy Graham, N.O. |
| '14 WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG | '13 WR Eric Decker, Den. |
| '13 WR Antonio Brown, Pitt. | '14 WR Julio Jones, Atl. |
| '15 QB • Blake Bortles, Jac. | '11 WR Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. |
| '15 TE •• Gary Barnidge, Clev. | '11 WR Steve Smith Sr., Car. |
| '15 QB • Tom Brady, N.E. | '15 RB Lamar Miller, Mia. |
| '12 RB Matt Forte, Chi. | '14 RB Jeremy Hill, Cin. |
| '12 QB • Matt Ryan, Atl. | '14 WR Jeremy Maclin, Phil. |
| '13 RB Chris Johnson, Tenn. | '14 TE •• Rob Gronkowski, N.E. |
| '13 WR Dez Bryant, Dall. | '11 WR Percy Harvin, Minn. |
| '12 QB • Peyton Manning, Den. | '15 TE •• Rob Gronkowski, N.E. |
| '14 RB Lamar Miller, Mia. | '15 RB David Johnson, Ariz. |
| '15 RB DeAngelo Williams, Pitt. | '13 WR DeSean Jackson, Phil. |
| '14 WR Emmanuel Sanders, Den. | '12 WR Vincent Jackson, T.B. |
| '11 QB • Philip Rivers, S.D. | '13 RB Reggie Bush, Det. |
| '14 QB • Peyton Manning, Den. | '15 WR Doug Baldwin, Sea. |
| '12 RB Reggie Bush, Mia. | '15 WR A.J. Green, Cin. |
| '14 RB Jeremy Hill, Cin. | '12 RB Chris Johnson, Tenn. |