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Ian Allan

June 07, 2016

Overall value

Adding another layer to the measuring of a player's overall value

I raised an issue yesterday, and I want to circle back to it. That is, what if instead of setting a baseline at each position, we also incorporate all of the players in between?

That is, right now we commonly set a player’s value by looking at what you can get later in a draft. At quarterback, for example, you might figure you can easily get a 250-point quarterback in the 14th round. So if you estimate Cam Newton to be worth 400 points, his relative value would be 150.

But that’s only part of the story. There could be some years where the No. 1 quarterback is worth about 400 points, and no other quarterbacks are worth more than 300. While in other years, there could be a dozen quarterbacks worth 350-plus. And if the No. 1 quarterback was worth 400 and that baseline quarterback was worth 250, the “value” would seem to be the same, even if it clearly wasn’t.

So let’s instead look at it this way. The No. 1 quarterback’s value is not only determined by that baseline guy, but you also look at the stat difference between him and all of the other quarterbacks. You do that for the different positions, and you should have a pretty accurate draft board.

Key, of course, is where to set the baselines. On that front, I think you need to use a combination of your league’s rules and your expectations of what your opponents are doing.

In most leagues, I think we’re talking about 12 teams, with teams starting a quarterback, tight end, 2 running backs and 2 wide receivers each week. Teams will want to select running backs and wide receivers first, and that’s a factor.

For version 1.0 of this test, I’m going to set 16 as the baseline for quarterbacks and tight ends. That is, I’m going to assume you can get the 16th quarterback or the 16th tight end in your draft without too much suffering. That’s the baseline, and values are calculated from there. It seems like a nice starting point, representing half of the 32-team league.

For example, Rob Gronkowski was the No. 1 tight end last year, with 184 points (standard scoring). Next game Jordan Reed, with 161, followed by Gary Barnidge, with 158. Gronkowski gets 23 points relative to Reed, plus 26 points for his value relative to Barnidge, plus 32 points for the distance to Greg Olsen. You follow this process all the way through, to where Gronkowski is getting 110 points for his performance relative to Zach Miller. Then you add all of those numbers up, for 1,063 relative fantasy points.

The No. 2 tight end, Reed, is similar. He comes in 23 points behind Gronkowski at all of those spots, finishing with 727 overall points.

I followed that process for all quarterbacks and tight ends over the last five years. Lots of numbers, but I’ve got a computer helping me along.

With running backs and wide receivers, twice as many are started, and they are more coveted in fantasy drafts, so I went twice as deep with the baseline. I settled on 32 at each, which has the additional logical connection to there being 32 teams in the league.

That’s the process. I went back and scored each of the last five years, and below you can see the top 80 most valuable players.

It is dominated by running backs. Of the top 22 players, all but three are running backs. Alfred Morris, Arian Foster and Eddie Lacy haven’t even been top-4 players at their own positions in recent years but grade out more favorably than any quarterback and almost any wide receiver.

Just three wide receivers (who are in bold) in the top 22, but they really take over in the middle of the list. After the first 28 players are gone, 11 of the next 13 are wide receivers.

Quarterbacks and tight ends (working at the disadvantage, of course, of 1-16 scoring instead of 1-32) don’t make a big impact. Just three quarterback in the top 60. Just two tight ends on the entire list.

To me, this list affirms that if you’re picking early in the first round (standard scoring) you probably should select a running back. When this list gets updated next year, there should be about 4 running backs added to the top 20. So the game, really, is for you to identify one of those four running backs. Are you comfortable saying LeVeon Bell, Todd Gurley, David Johnson or Adrian Peterson will be a top-4 back? If you are, that’s you’re guy.

When you move down far benough in the first round where you’re starting to get squeamish, that’s where you shift over to Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr. and Julio Jones.

On this chart, “points” assume standard fantasy scoring. The next column, “Pl” is the “Place” – where he ranked at his own position.

TOP 80 PLAYERS OF THE LAST FIVE YEARS
RkYearPosPlayerPointsPlValue
1.2012RBAdrian Peterson, Minn.311.414,448
2.2013RBJamaal Charles, K.C.312.014,394
3.2014RBDeMarco Murray, Dall.304.114,356
4.2011RBRay Rice, Balt.300.813,970
5.2014RBLeVeon Bell, Pitt.287.523,842
6.2011WRCalvin Johnson, Det.265.213,465
7.2013RBLeSean McCoy, Phil.280.623,420
8.2011RBLeSean McCoy, Phil.282.423,400
9.2014RBMarshawn Lynch, Sea.269.333,296
10.2014WRAntonio Brown, Pitt.261.113,094
11.2012RBArian Foster, Hou.266.123,043
12.2013RBMatt Forte, Chi.267.333,021
13.2012RBDoug Martin, T.B.264.632,998
14.2015RBDevonta Freeman, Atl.247.412,952
15.2011RBMaurice Jones-Drew, Jac.264.032,848
16.2015WRAntonio Brown, Pitt.256.212,828
17.2014RBMatt Forte, Chi.248.642,695
18.2015RBAdrian Peterson, Minn.236.722,620
19.2011RBArian Foster, Hou.256.142,619
20.2012RBMarshawn Lynch, Sea.250.642,592
21.2012RBAlfred Morris, Wash.247.052,492
22.2014RBArian Foster, Hou.239.352,435
23.2015WRJulio Jones, Atl.241.122,360
24.2014RBEddie Lacy, G.B.234.662,308
25.2013QB• Peyton Manning, Den.496.812,282
26.2013RBMarshawn Lynch, Sea.241.342,267
27.2015WRBrandon Marshall, NYJ234.232,153
28.2013RBKnowshon Moreno, Den.236.652,136
29.2014WRJordy Nelson, G.B.229.932,126
30.2014WRDemaryius Thomas, Den.229.922,126
31.2012WRCalvin Johnson, Det.226.412,116
32.2013WRJosh Gordon, Clev.227.412,101
33.2013WRDemaryius Thomas, Den.227.022,089
34.2014WRDez Bryant, Dall.228.042,071
35.2011WRJordy Nelson, G.B.216.321,950
36.2013WRCalvin Johnson, Det.221.231,915
37.2011QB• Drew Brees, N.O.476.411,887
38.2011WRWes Welker, N.E.213.931,878
39.2011TE•• Rob Gronkowski, N.E.240.711,871
40.2015WRAllen Robinson, Jac.224.041,857
41.2015WROdell Beckham Jr., NYG223.351,838
42.2014RBJamaal Charles, K.C.216.471,835
43.2012RBRay Rice, Balt.222.161,819
44.2012WRBrandon Marshall, Chi.216.621,813
45.2015RBDoug Martin, T.B.209.331,798
46.2015WRDeAndre Hopkins, Hou.220.161,751
47.2012RBC.J. Spiller, Buff.218.371,720
48.2011WRVictor Cruz, NYG207.941,704
49.2012WRDez Bryant, Dall.211.731,666
50.2011RBMarshawn Lynch, Sea.219.651,597
51.2011QB• Aaron Rodgers, G.B.455.921,579
52.2013TE•• Jimmy Graham, N.O.217.511,557
53.2013WRA.J. Green, Cin.208.641,549
54.2012RBJamaal Charles, K.C.210.581,525
55.2011RBMichael Turner, Atl.216.861,521
56.2014RBJustin Forsett, Balt.202.981,497
57.2014WRRandall Cobb, G.B.206.451,467
58.2012WRA.J. Green, Cin.204.841,465
59.2013WRBrandon Marshall, Chi.205.551,463
60.2014WROdell Beckham Jr., NYG206.061,456
61.2011QB• Tom Brady, N.E.446.731,450
62.2011QB• Cam Newton, Car.445.241,430
63.2013WRAntonio Brown, Pitt.204.361,430
64.2012WRDemaryius Thomas, Den.203.451,426
65.2013RBAdrian Peterson, Minn.209.761,410
66.2013RBEddie Lacy, G.B.209.571,404
67.2015RBDeAngelo Williams, Pitt.195.441,395
68.2013QB• Drew Brees, N.O.437.321,390
69.2012RBFrank Gore, S.F.204.891,389
70.2012RBTrent Richardson, Clev.203.7101,363
71.2012RBStevan Ridley, N.E.203.4111,357
72.2013WRDez Bryant, Dall.201.471,355
73.2013RBDeMarco Murray, Dall.207.181,344
74.2015QB• Cam Newton, Car.455.511,340
75.2014WREmmanuel Sanders, Den.200.871,321
76.2014QB• Andrew Luck, Ind.443.411,307
77.2013WRAlshon Jeffery, Chi.196.681,235
78.2015RBTodd Gurley, St.L.189.451,227
79.2013RBChris Johnson, Tenn.202.291,227
80.2012QB• Drew Brees, N.O.437.411,222
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