I raised an issue yesterday, and I want to circle back to it. That is, what if instead of setting a baseline at each position, we also incorporate all of the players in between?
That is, right now we commonly set a player’s value by looking at what you can get later in a draft. At quarterback, for example, you might figure you can easily get a 250-point quarterback in the 14th round. So if you estimate Cam Newton to be worth 400 points, his relative value would be 150.
But that’s only part of the story. There could be some years where the No. 1 quarterback is worth about 400 points, and no other quarterbacks are worth more than 300. While in other years, there could be a dozen quarterbacks worth 350-plus. And if the No. 1 quarterback was worth 400 and that baseline quarterback was worth 250, the “value” would seem to be the same, even if it clearly wasn’t.
So let’s instead look at it this way. The No. 1 quarterback’s value is not only determined by that baseline guy, but you also look at the stat difference between him and all of the other quarterbacks. You do that for the different positions, and you should have a pretty accurate draft board.
Key, of course, is where to set the baselines. On that front, I think you need to use a combination of your league’s rules and your expectations of what your opponents are doing.
In most leagues, I think we’re talking about 12 teams, with teams starting a quarterback, tight end, 2 running backs and 2 wide receivers each week. Teams will want to select running backs and wide receivers first, and that’s a factor.
For version 1.0 of this test, I’m going to set 16 as the baseline for quarterbacks and tight ends. That is, I’m going to assume you can get the 16th quarterback or the 16th tight end in your draft without too much suffering. That’s the baseline, and values are calculated from there. It seems like a nice starting point, representing half of the 32-team league.
For example, Rob Gronkowski was the No. 1 tight end last year, with 184 points (standard scoring). Next game Jordan Reed, with 161, followed by Gary Barnidge, with 158. Gronkowski gets 23 points relative to Reed, plus 26 points for his value relative to Barnidge, plus 32 points for the distance to Greg Olsen. You follow this process all the way through, to where Gronkowski is getting 110 points for his performance relative to Zach Miller. Then you add all of those numbers up, for 1,063 relative fantasy points.
The No. 2 tight end, Reed, is similar. He comes in 23 points behind Gronkowski at all of those spots, finishing with 727 overall points.
I followed that process for all quarterbacks and tight ends over the last five years. Lots of numbers, but I’ve got a computer helping me along.
With running backs and wide receivers, twice as many are started, and they are more coveted in fantasy drafts, so I went twice as deep with the baseline. I settled on 32 at each, which has the additional logical connection to there being 32 teams in the league.
That’s the process. I went back and scored each of the last five years, and below you can see the top 80 most valuable players.
It is dominated by running backs. Of the top 22 players, all but three are running backs. Alfred Morris, Arian Foster and Eddie Lacy haven’t even been top-4 players at their own positions in recent years but grade out more favorably than any quarterback and almost any wide receiver.
Just three wide receivers (who are in bold) in the top 22, but they really take over in the middle of the list. After the first 28 players are gone, 11 of the next 13 are wide receivers.
Quarterbacks and tight ends (working at the disadvantage, of course, of 1-16 scoring instead of 1-32) don’t make a big impact. Just three quarterback in the top 60. Just two tight ends on the entire list.
To me, this list affirms that if you’re picking early in the first round (standard scoring) you probably should select a running back. When this list gets updated next year, there should be about 4 running backs added to the top 20. So the game, really, is for you to identify one of those four running backs. Are you comfortable saying LeVeon Bell, Todd Gurley, David Johnson or Adrian Peterson will be a top-4 back? If you are, that’s you’re guy.
When you move down far benough in the first round where you’re starting to get squeamish, that’s where you shift over to Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr. and Julio Jones.
On this chart, “points” assume standard fantasy scoring. The next column, “Pl” is the “Place” – where he ranked at his own position.
| TOP 80 PLAYERS OF THE LAST FIVE YEARS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Year | Pos | Player | Points | Pl | Value |
| 1. | 2012 | RB | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 311.4 | 1 | 4,448 |
| 2. | 2013 | RB | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 312.0 | 1 | 4,394 |
| 3. | 2014 | RB | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 304.1 | 1 | 4,356 |
| 4. | 2011 | RB | Ray Rice, Balt. | 300.8 | 1 | 3,970 |
| 5. | 2014 | RB | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 287.5 | 2 | 3,842 |
| 6. | 2011 | WR | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 265.2 | 1 | 3,465 |
| 7. | 2013 | RB | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 280.6 | 2 | 3,420 |
| 8. | 2011 | RB | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 282.4 | 2 | 3,400 |
| 9. | 2014 | RB | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 269.3 | 3 | 3,296 |
| 10. | 2014 | WR | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 261.1 | 1 | 3,094 |
| 11. | 2012 | RB | Arian Foster, Hou. | 266.1 | 2 | 3,043 |
| 12. | 2013 | RB | Matt Forte, Chi. | 267.3 | 3 | 3,021 |
| 13. | 2012 | RB | Doug Martin, T.B. | 264.6 | 3 | 2,998 |
| 14. | 2015 | RB | Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 247.4 | 1 | 2,952 |
| 15. | 2011 | RB | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 264.0 | 3 | 2,848 |
| 16. | 2015 | WR | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 256.2 | 1 | 2,828 |
| 17. | 2014 | RB | Matt Forte, Chi. | 248.6 | 4 | 2,695 |
| 18. | 2015 | RB | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 236.7 | 2 | 2,620 |
| 19. | 2011 | RB | Arian Foster, Hou. | 256.1 | 4 | 2,619 |
| 20. | 2012 | RB | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 250.6 | 4 | 2,592 |
| 21. | 2012 | RB | Alfred Morris, Wash. | 247.0 | 5 | 2,492 |
| 22. | 2014 | RB | Arian Foster, Hou. | 239.3 | 5 | 2,435 |
| 23. | 2015 | WR | Julio Jones, Atl. | 241.1 | 2 | 2,360 |
| 24. | 2014 | RB | Eddie Lacy, G.B. | 234.6 | 6 | 2,308 |
| 25. | 2013 | QB | • Peyton Manning, Den. | 496.8 | 1 | 2,282 |
| 26. | 2013 | RB | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 241.3 | 4 | 2,267 |
| 27. | 2015 | WR | Brandon Marshall, NYJ | 234.2 | 3 | 2,153 |
| 28. | 2013 | RB | Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 236.6 | 5 | 2,136 |
| 29. | 2014 | WR | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 229.9 | 3 | 2,126 |
| 30. | 2014 | WR | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 229.9 | 2 | 2,126 |
| 31. | 2012 | WR | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 226.4 | 1 | 2,116 |
| 32. | 2013 | WR | Josh Gordon, Clev. | 227.4 | 1 | 2,101 |
| 33. | 2013 | WR | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 227.0 | 2 | 2,089 |
| 34. | 2014 | WR | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 228.0 | 4 | 2,071 |
| 35. | 2011 | WR | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 216.3 | 2 | 1,950 |
| 36. | 2013 | WR | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 221.2 | 3 | 1,915 |
| 37. | 2011 | QB | • Drew Brees, N.O. | 476.4 | 1 | 1,887 |
| 38. | 2011 | WR | Wes Welker, N.E. | 213.9 | 3 | 1,878 |
| 39. | 2011 | TE | •• Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 240.7 | 1 | 1,871 |
| 40. | 2015 | WR | Allen Robinson, Jac. | 224.0 | 4 | 1,857 |
| 41. | 2015 | WR | Odell Beckham Jr., NYG | 223.3 | 5 | 1,838 |
| 42. | 2014 | RB | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 216.4 | 7 | 1,835 |
| 43. | 2012 | RB | Ray Rice, Balt. | 222.1 | 6 | 1,819 |
| 44. | 2012 | WR | Brandon Marshall, Chi. | 216.6 | 2 | 1,813 |
| 45. | 2015 | RB | Doug Martin, T.B. | 209.3 | 3 | 1,798 |
| 46. | 2015 | WR | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 220.1 | 6 | 1,751 |
| 47. | 2012 | RB | C.J. Spiller, Buff. | 218.3 | 7 | 1,720 |
| 48. | 2011 | WR | Victor Cruz, NYG | 207.9 | 4 | 1,704 |
| 49. | 2012 | WR | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 211.7 | 3 | 1,666 |
| 50. | 2011 | RB | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 219.6 | 5 | 1,597 |
| 51. | 2011 | QB | • Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 455.9 | 2 | 1,579 |
| 52. | 2013 | TE | •• Jimmy Graham, N.O. | 217.5 | 1 | 1,557 |
| 53. | 2013 | WR | A.J. Green, Cin. | 208.6 | 4 | 1,549 |
| 54. | 2012 | RB | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 210.5 | 8 | 1,525 |
| 55. | 2011 | RB | Michael Turner, Atl. | 216.8 | 6 | 1,521 |
| 56. | 2014 | RB | Justin Forsett, Balt. | 202.9 | 8 | 1,497 |
| 57. | 2014 | WR | Randall Cobb, G.B. | 206.4 | 5 | 1,467 |
| 58. | 2012 | WR | A.J. Green, Cin. | 204.8 | 4 | 1,465 |
| 59. | 2013 | WR | Brandon Marshall, Chi. | 205.5 | 5 | 1,463 |
| 60. | 2014 | WR | Odell Beckham Jr., NYG | 206.0 | 6 | 1,456 |
| 61. | 2011 | QB | • Tom Brady, N.E. | 446.7 | 3 | 1,450 |
| 62. | 2011 | QB | • Cam Newton, Car. | 445.2 | 4 | 1,430 |
| 63. | 2013 | WR | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 204.3 | 6 | 1,430 |
| 64. | 2012 | WR | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 203.4 | 5 | 1,426 |
| 65. | 2013 | RB | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 209.7 | 6 | 1,410 |
| 66. | 2013 | RB | Eddie Lacy, G.B. | 209.5 | 7 | 1,404 |
| 67. | 2015 | RB | DeAngelo Williams, Pitt. | 195.4 | 4 | 1,395 |
| 68. | 2013 | QB | • Drew Brees, N.O. | 437.3 | 2 | 1,390 |
| 69. | 2012 | RB | Frank Gore, S.F. | 204.8 | 9 | 1,389 |
| 70. | 2012 | RB | Trent Richardson, Clev. | 203.7 | 10 | 1,363 |
| 71. | 2012 | RB | Stevan Ridley, N.E. | 203.4 | 11 | 1,357 |
| 72. | 2013 | WR | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 201.4 | 7 | 1,355 |
| 73. | 2013 | RB | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 207.1 | 8 | 1,344 |
| 74. | 2015 | QB | • Cam Newton, Car. | 455.5 | 1 | 1,340 |
| 75. | 2014 | WR | Emmanuel Sanders, Den. | 200.8 | 7 | 1,321 |
| 76. | 2014 | QB | • Andrew Luck, Ind. | 443.4 | 1 | 1,307 |
| 77. | 2013 | WR | Alshon Jeffery, Chi. | 196.6 | 8 | 1,235 |
| 78. | 2015 | RB | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 189.4 | 5 | 1,227 |
| 79. | 2013 | RB | Chris Johnson, Tenn. | 202.2 | 9 | 1,227 |
| 80. | 2012 | QB | • Drew Brees, N.O. | 437.4 | 1 | 1,222 |