Fantasy Index

Factoid

The vanishing kick return

Rule change will further speed decline

The NFL is tired of kickoff returns. Too many injuries, their research shows. So over the past few years they've been taking steps to do away with them. Before long, they'll dispense with half measures and just get rid of them all together -- place the ball at the 20- or 25-yard line after a scoring play and be done with it.

Back in 2011, the league moved kickoffs from the 30-yard line to the 35, so as to produce more kicks into the end zone and more touchbacks (and fewer returns). In March, they ruled that touchbacks will be placed at the 25-yard line rather than the 20. So even fewer kicks will be returned, so goes the theory, since returners would need to get an extra 5 yards to make it worthwhile.

That 2011 move dramatically reduced kickoff return touchdowns. League-wide, there were 88 TDs in the five years from 2006-2010, an average of nearly 18 per year, and at least that many three times. The kind of thing worth factoring into fantasy projections for defenses.

Since then? There have been a total of 42 kickoff return touchdowns in five seasons, an average of just 8 per year league-wide. Big difference. The last three years there have been 6-7 kickoff return TDs each season. Last year the Vikings and Washington, with 2 each, were the only teams with more than 1. Twenty-seven teams didn't have any.

I wonder about this new rule change, though. Won't some teams try to avoid kicking the ball into the end zone so the opponent doesn't get the ball at the 25-yard line? Perhaps higher kicks near the goal line, or squib kicks that get covered inside the 20? Will NFL teams simply concede the 25-yard line after every score? Maybe not.

Kick return touchdowns by team and league-wide over the past decade are presented below.

KICKOFF RETURN TDS, 2006-2015
Team06070809101112131415Tot
NY Jets231121100011
Minnesota010211120210
Chicago22110100108
Seattle02003010017
Cleveland12130000007
Baltimore01011021107
New England12102010007
Arizona10112000016
Oakland00203100006
Houston04010000005
Buffalo01101010105
Washington10001000024
Tampa Bay01111000004
Kansas City00010002104
Denver00011011004
San Diego01100110004
Detroit01001001003
NY Giants01000010013
Indianapolis00011010003
Miami00020010003
Philadelphia00100000203
Tennessee00001110003
Pittsburgh01001000002
San Francisco00100100002
Jacksonville11000000002
Cincinnati01010000002
Atlanta00001000001
Dallas00100000001
Green Bay00000100001
New Orleans00010000001
Carolina00000100001
St. Louis00000000000
NFL925131823913767

--Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index