There are lots of nice second-year running backs. Todd Gurley and David Johnson lead the way; they’re both in the top 3 of the Fantasy Football Index magazines that on the printing press as we speak. There’s also Jeremy Langford, Thomas Rawls, Matt Jones, Karlos Williams and Duke Johnson Jr.
All of these backs did some good things as rookies. But does that mean that they are headed for big things in their second year? In theory, they should have a better understanding of the team’s offense and what it takes at the pro level. They’ve had access to the team’s training facilities.
In some cases, it’s certainly seemed to play out that way. LeVeon Bell and Eddie Lacy in 2014 came in as sophomores, upped their games and put up big numbers.
But there have also been many cases where the second-year leap simply hasn’t occurred.
So I figured I’d get out the numbers for an overview.
Since 2000, 56 running backs have put up at least 100 fantasy points in their first season (using standard scoring). Of that group, only 23 came back the next year and put up even better numbers.
In this chart, I’m listing all of those guys in order of their rookie numbers (which aren’t shown). The guys who improved are in bold. But almost 60 percent of the players got worse in their second year. That flies in the face of the theory that having a year of experience helps to improve a player.
Also mixed into this chart are the rookies from last year (with a black dot), who have yet to play their second season. Sounds like chances are at least half of them will be worse in their second year.
On this chart, you see total yards (rushing/receiving), total touchdowns, fantasy points, and how that fantasy score compares to the not-shown first-year number for the player – 101% means his stats were 1 percent better than his first year. A 95% means they were 5% worse.
| ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS -- SOPHOMORE SEASONS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Yards | TD | Points | Pct |
| 2003 | Clinton Portis, Den. | 1,905 | 14 | 274.5 | 95% |
| 2013 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 522 | 1 | 58.2 | 22% |
| 2001 | Mike Anderson, Den. | 724 | 4 | 96.4 | 38% |
| 2013 | Alfred Morris, Wash. | 1,353 | 7 | 177.3 | 72% |
| 2009 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 1,400 | 4 | 164.0 | 67% |
| 2008 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 1,885 | 10 | 248.5 | 104% |
| 2007 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 1,175 | 10 | 177.5 | 76% |
| 2009 | Steve Slaton, Hou. | 854 | 7 | 127.4 | 56% |
| 2002 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 2,172 | 15 | 307.2 | 139% |
| 2014 | Eddie Lacy, G.B. | 1,566 | 13 | 234.6 | 112% |
| 2009 | Chris Johnson, Tenn. | 2,509 | 16 | 346.9 | 166% |
| 2013 | Trent Richardson, Clev. | 723 | 4 | 96.3 | 47% |
| 2001 | Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 0 | 0 | .0 | 0% |
| 2016 | • Todd Gurley, St.L. | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2007 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | 1,436 | 15 | 233.6 | 124% |
| 2015 | Jeremy Hill, Cin. | 873 | 12 | 159.3 | 85% |
| 2004 | Domanick Davis, Hou. | 1,776 | 14 | 261.6 | 140% |
| 2007 | Reggie Bush, N.O. | 998 | 6 | 135.8 | 74% |
| 2016 | • David Johnson, Ariz. | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2002 | Anthony Thomas, Chi. | 884 | 6 | 124.4 | 70% |
| 2009 | Kevin Smith, Det. | 1,162 | 5 | 146.2 | 84% |
| 2014 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 2,215 | 11 | 287.5 | 165% |
| 2008 | Marshawn Lynch, Buff. | 1,336 | 9 | 187.6 | 109% |
| 2010 | Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 1,151 | 8 | 163.1 | 96% |
| 2014 | Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 1,029 | 7 | 144.9 | 86% |
| 2005 | Kevin Jones, Det. | 773 | 5 | 107.3 | 64% |
| 2006 | Cadillac Williams, T.B. | 994 | 1 | 105.4 | 65% |
| 2014 | Zac Stacy, St.L. | 445 | 1 | 50.5 | 32% |
| 2009 | Jonathan Stewart, Car. | 1,272 | 11 | 193.2 | 130% |
| 2006 | Ronnie Brown, Mia. | 1,284 | 5 | 158.4 | 110% |
| 2011 | Jahvid Best, Det. | 677 | 3 | 85.7 | 62% |
| 2011 | LeGarrette Blount, Tenn. | 929 | 5 | 122.9 | 89% |
| 2003 | William Green, Clev. | 609 | 1 | 66.9 | 49% |
| 2007 | Laurence Maroney, N.E. | 951 | 6 | 131.1 | 96% |
| 2010 | Beanie Wells, Ariz. | 471 | 2 | 59.1 | 44% |
| 2005 | Julius Jones, Dall. | 1,211 | 5 | 151.1 | 112% |
| 2015 | Andre Williams, NYG | 264 | 1 | 32.4 | 25% |
| 2014 | Andre Ellington, Ariz. | 1,055 | 5 | 135.5 | 107% |
| 2011 | Ryan Mathews, S.D. | 1,546 | 6 | 190.6 | 153% |
| 2009 | Tim Hightower, Ariz. | 1,026 | 8 | 150.6 | 122% |
| 2016 | • Jeremy Langford, Chi. | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2015 | Tre Mason, St.L. | 295 | 1 | 35.5 | 29% |
| 2016 | • Thomas Rawls, Sea. | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2012 | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 914 | 4 | 115.4 | 96% |
| 2012 | Roy Helu, Wash. | 47 | 0 | 4.7 | 4% |
| 2016 | • T.J. Yeldon, Jac. | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2010 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 1,672 | 9 | 221.2 | 187% |
| 2001 | Travis Prentice, Clev. | 23 | 2 | 14.3 | 12% |
| 2015 | Isaiah Crowell, Clev. | 888 | 5 | 118.8 | 101% |
| 2007 | Leon Washington, NYJ | 566 | 3 | 74.6 | 64% |
| 2016 | • Karlos Williams, Buff. | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2002 | Travis Henry, Buff. | 1,747 | 14 | 258.7 | 225% |
| 2013 | Vick Ballard, Ind. | 58 | 0 | 5.8 | 5% |
| 2005 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 1,366 | 10 | 196.6 | 178% |
| 2015 | Branden Oliver, S.D. | 220 | 0 | 22.0 | 20% |
| 2006 | Samkon Gado, K.C. | 295 | 1 | 35.5 | 33% |
| 2002 | Michael Bennett, Minn. | 1,647 | 6 | 200.7 | 184% |
| 2001 | Ron Dayne, NYG | 757 | 7 | 117.7 | 109% |
| 2002 | Kevan Barlow, S.F. | 811 | 5 | 111.1 | 105% |
| 2016 | • Javorius Allen, Balt. | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2015 | Terrance West, Clev. | 252 | 0 | 25.2 | 24% |
| 2016 | • Matt Jones, Wash. | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2016 | • Duke Johnson Jr., Clev. | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2009 | Darren McFadden, Oak. | 602 | 1 | 66.2 | 65% |
| 2004 | Onterrio Smith, Minn. | 938 | 4 | 117.8 | 117% |
—Ian Allan