Fantasy Index

Factoid

Wide receivers

Do receivers from winning teams post better numbers?

I posted the blurb on the weekend about running backs from losing teams. Some were pointing out that Carlos Hyde plays on a poor team, making it harder for him to finish with good numbers. Out of curiosity, I figured I’d run the same study on wide receivers, and the results are a little surprising.

I have long subscribed to the theory that good running backs tend to come from good teams. Justin Eleff had a nice line in the magazine, something along the lines of ‘NFL teams don’t win by running the ball, they run because they’re winning.’

But now I’ve got these numbers in front of me, and at least for this time around – looking at the last 10 years – the winning/stats correlation is stronger for wide receivers.

On this one, I took the top 10 wide receivers for each of the last 10 years. So a group of 100 players. Then I looked at how many came from teams that finished with losing records; they’re in bold. For teams that finished 8-8, I’ve got them with a black dot. Winning teams are in plain type.

For wide receivers, 62 of the 100 came from teams with winning records, and 15 came from .500 types. Only 23 came from teams with losing records, which is 9 fewer than what we saw with running backs. With the running backs, 49 came from teams with winning records, and 19 from teams that were 8-8.

Weird. Not what I expected.

The top 100 I’m listing is based on standard scoring. Rushing yards and 2-point conversions aren’t listed by those stats are included in the fantasy point totals.

TOP 100 RECEIVERS OF LAST 10 YEARS
YearPlayerNoYardsTDPointsRecord
2007Randy Moss, N.E.981,49323287.3(16-0)
2011Calvin Johnson, Det.961,68116265.2(10-6)
2014Antonio Brown, Pitt.1291,69814261.1(11-5)
2015Antonio Brown, Pitt.1361,83411256.2(10-6)
2015• Julio Jones, Atl.1361,8719241.1(8-8)
2015Brandon Marshall, NYJ1091,50214234.2(10-6)
2014Demaryius Thomas, Den.1111,61911229.9(12-4)
2014Jordy Nelson, G.B.981,51913229.9(12-4)
2014Dez Bryant, Dall.881,32016228.0(12-4)
2013Josh Gordon, Clev.871,6469227.4(4-12)
2013Demaryius Thomas, Den.921,43014227.0(13-3)
2012Calvin Johnson, Det.1221,9645226.4(4-12)
2007Terrell Owens, Dall.811,35515226.0(13-3)
2007Braylon Edwards, Clev.801,28916224.9(10-6)
2015Allen Robinson, Jac.801,40014224.0(5-11)
2015Odell Beckham Jr., NYG961,45013223.3(6-10)
2013Calvin Johnson, Det.841,49212221.2(7-9)
2015DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.1111,52111220.1(9-7)
2012Brandon Marshall, Chi.1181,50811216.6(10-6)
2011Jordy Nelson, G.B.681,26315216.3(15-1)
2008Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.961,43112215.1(9-7)
2011Wes Welker, N.E.1221,5699213.9(13-3)
2009Andre Johnson, Hou.1011,5699212.9(9-7)
2012• Dez Bryant, Dall.921,38212211.7(8-8)
2007Reggie Wayne, Ind.1041,51010211.4(13-3)
2010Brandon Lloyd, Den.771,44811209.0(4-12)
2013A.J. Green, Cin.981,42611208.6(11-5)
2006Marvin Harrison, Ind.951,36612208.6(12-4)
2011Victor Cruz, NYG821,5369207.9(9-7)
2008Calvin Johnson, Det.781,33112207.0(0-16)
2010Dwayne Bowe, K.C.721,16215206.6(10-6)
2014Randall Cobb, G.B.911,28712206.4(12-4)
2009Randy Moss, N.E.831,26413206.4(10-6)
2014Odell Beckham Jr., NYG911,30512206.0(6-10)
2013• Brandon Marshall, Chi.1001,29512205.5(8-8)
2008• Andre Johnson, Hou.1151,5758205.5(8-8)
2012A.J. Green, Cin.971,35011204.8(10-6)
2013• Antonio Brown, Pitt.1101,4999204.3(8-8)
2012Demaryius Thomas, Den.941,43410203.4(13-3)
2010Roddy White, Atl.1151,38910203.2(13-3)
2009DeSean Jackson, Phil.631,16712202.4(11-5)
2013• Dez Bryant, Dall.931,23313201.4(8-8)
2007• Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.1001,40910200.9(8-8)
2014Emmanuel Sanders, Den.1011,4049200.8(12-4)
2010Greg Jennings, G.B.761,26512198.4(10-6)
2006Terrell Owens, Dall.851,18013198.0(9-7)
2009Miles Austin, Dall.811,32011197.8(11-5)
2007Chad Johnson, Cin.931,4408196.7(7-9)
2013• Alshon Jeffery, Chi.891,4217196.6(8-8)
2014Julio Jones, Atl.1041,5936195.4(6-10)
2013Eric Decker, Den.871,28811194.8(13-3)
2014Jeremy Maclin, Phil.851,31810191.8(10-6)
2015Doug Baldwin, Sea.781,06914190.9(10-6)
2015A.J. Green, Cin.861,29710189.7(12-4)
2010Mike Wallace, Pitt.601,25710189.6(12-4)
2010Calvin Johnson, Det.771,12012189.2(6-10)
2011• Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.801,4118189.1(8-8)
2011Steve Smith Sr., Car.791,3947189.0(6-10)
2012Vincent Jackson, T.B.721,3848188.4(7-9)
2007T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cin.1121,14312187.7(7-9)
2013DeSean Jackson, Phil.821,3329187.4(10-6)
2009Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.971,09213187.2(10-6)
2006Reggie Wayne, Ind.861,3109187.0(12-4)
2009Reggie Wayne, Ind.1001,26410186.4(14-2)
2007Marques Colston, N.O.981,20211186.2(7-9)
2011Percy Harvin, Minn.879679185.2(3-13)
2012Eric Decker, Den.851,06413184.4(13-3)
2012Andre Johnson, Hou.1121,5984183.8(12-4)
2008Greg Jennings, G.B.801,2929183.2(6-10)
2012Julio Jones, Atl.791,19810182.8(13-3)
2008Steve Smith Sr., Car.781,4216182.1(12-4)
2009Roddy White, Atl.851,15311181.5(9-7)
2006• Chad Johnson, Cin.871,3697181.3(8-8)
2008Roddy White, Atl.881,3827180.6(11-5)
2007Brandon Marshall, Den.1021,3257180.2(7-9)
2009Sidney Rice, Minn.831,3128179.2(12-4)
2006• Donald Driver, G.B.921,2958179.1(8-8)
2006• Torry Holt, St.L.931,18810178.8(8-8)
2014T.Y. Hilton, Ind.821,3457178.5(11-5)
2011Roddy White, Atl.1001,2968177.6(10-6)
2006Lee Evans, Buff.821,2928177.2(7-9)
2012Roddy White, Atl.921,3517177.1(13-3)
2006• Steve Smith Sr., Car.831,1669176.7(8-8)
2008Anquan Boldin, Ariz.891,03811176.5(9-7)
2009• Brandon Marshall, Den.1011,12010175.9(8-8)
2015Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.1091,2159175.5(13-3)
2015Calvin Johnson, Det.881,2149175.4(7-9)
2006Javon Walker, Den.691,0849174.7(9-7)
2007Plaxico Burress, NYG701,02512174.5(10-6)
2006Roy Williams, Det.821,3107173.2(3-13)
2011Mike Wallace, Pitt.721,1938173.0(12-4)
2009Vincent Jackson, S.D.681,1679171.8(13-3)
2010Reggie Wayne, Ind.1111,3556171.5(10-6)
2010Hakeem Nicks, NYG791,05211171.2(10-6)
2010Andre Johnson, Hou.861,2168170.6(6-10)
2011• Vincent Jackson, S.D.601,1069169.7(8-8)
2008Antonio Bryant, T.B.831,2487169.0(9-7)
2008Terrell Owens, Dall.691,05210168.5(9-7)
2010Stevie Johnson, Buff.821,07310167.3(4-12)
2008Randy Moss, N.E.691,00811166.8(11-5)

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index