A couple of days ago we ran a table showing how the NFL has gradually legislated kickoff returns out of the league, by moving kickoffs to the 35 and (this year) moving touchbacks to the 25. There are no similar rules involving punt returns, but those types of touchdowns seems to be on the decline, too.
Over the last three years, there have been exactly 13 punt return touchdowns each season. There were at least 15 in five of the seven years prior to that; an average of 16 over that span. The decline isn't as striking (kickoff return scores have been more than halved in that time frame), but it seems to be there. Maybe punters are getting better at kicking it higher, or coverage teams are getting better.
Another factor is that teams are choosing to return fewer punts, using players who are sure-handed rather than particularly elusive. Rather than risk a fumble on a return, players are calling for more fair catches. The numbers support that: the last five years have seen an average of 607 fair catches. The previous five years, just 477. Big difference, and probably a combination of punters getting better and teams getting more conservative on returns.
That being said, the decline in touchdowns can also be attributed to one man -- Devin Hester. If you do nothing more than remove his numbers (12 TDs from 2006-2011, just 2 from 2012-2015), the rest of the NFL averaged 13 return TDs per season from 2006-2011...and 13 TDs from 2012-2015.
So all we can say for certain is that the league is calling more fair catches than ever before. Return touchdowns seem to be down strictly because of the lack of a game-changer like Hester.
Thanks to Hester, the Bears have the most punt return TDs over the last decade. Next in line are the Eagles, and 4 of theirs have come in the last two years, with Darren Sproles the key figure. They look like the team worthiest of a slight boost in TD-only formats.
| PUNT RETURN TDS, 2006-2015 | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | '06 | '07 | '08 | '09 | '10 | '11 | '12 | '13 | '14 | '15 | Total |
| Chicago | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| Philadelphia | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| Green Bay | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| Tennessee | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Dallas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Denver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| Buffalo | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| Baltimore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| Cleveland | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| New Orleans | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| LA Rams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| Arizona | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| Minnesota | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| Pittsburgh | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Kansas City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| New England | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Houston | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Seattle | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Miami | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Atlanta | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Indianapolis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Oakland | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| San Diego | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Jacksonville | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| NY Giants | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Tampa Bay | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Cincinnati | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| San Francisco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Washington | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Carolina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| NY Jets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Detroit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Total | 15 | 17 | 16 | 10 | 13 | 20 | 18 | 13 | 13 | 13 | |
--Andy Richardson