Derrick Henry rushed for over 2,200 yards at Alabama last year. Tennessee selected him in the second round, and he'll probably play behind DeMarco Murray initially, then take over perhaps a year from now. Does college production mean he'll be a good pro? Not necessarily.
Over the last 10 years, there have been 50 other running backs drafted in the first two rounds. Eleven of those backs rushed for at least 1,800 yards in their final years of college, and fewer than half of them have gone on to be good NFL players. Only two have really been great: Matt Forte and Ray Rice.
The number of disappointments at the top of the list, meanwhile, suggests optimism about Henry should be tempered. Ball, Sankey, Gerhart, James. Rushing for huge numbers in college doesn't consistently translate to the NFL.
Final year of college rushing numbers for all running backs drafted in the first two rounds since 2006, sorted by yardage, are shown below; 2016 rookies are in bold.
| FINAL YEAR OF COLLEGE RUSHING, 1ST AND 2ND-ROUND RBS, 2006- | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Rd | Pk | Player | College | Yards | TD |
| 2015 | 1 | 15 | Melvin Gordon, S.D. | Wisconsin | 2587 | 32 |
| 2016 | 2 | 45 | Derrick Henry, Tenn. | Alabama | 2219 | 28 |
| 2008 | 2 | 44 | Matt Forte, Chi. | Tulane | 2127 | 23 |
| 2009 | 1 | 27 | Donald Brown, Ind. | Connecticut | 2083 | 18 |
| 2008 | 2 | 55 | Ray Rice, Balt. | Rutgers | 2012 | 25 |
| 2006 | 1 | 27 | DeAngelo Williams, Car. | Memphis | 1964 | 19 |
| 2010 | 2 | 51 | Toby Gerhart, Minn. | Stanford | 1871 | 28 |
| 2014 | 2 | 54 | Bishop Sankey, Tenn. | Washington | 1870 | 21 |
| 2013 | 2 | 58 | Montee Ball, Den. | Wisconsin | 1830 | 22 |
| 2008 | 1 | 4 | Darren McFadden, Oak. | Arkansas | 1830 | 17 |
| 2016 | 1 | 4 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | Ohio State | 1821 | 23 |
| 2010 | 1 | 12 | Ryan Mathews, S.D. | Fresno State | 1808 | 19 |
| 2012 | 2 | 61 | LaMichael James, S.F. | Oregon | 1805 | 19 |
| 2013 | 2 | 48 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | Michigan State | 1793 | 13 |
| 2006 | 1 | 2 | Reggie Bush, N.O. | Southern California | 1740 | 18 |
| 2008 | 1 | 13 | Jonathan Stewart, Car. | Oregon | 1722 | 13 |
| 2012 | 1 | 32 | David Wilson, NYG | Virginia Tech | 1709 | 10 |
| 2011 | 2 | 57 | Mikel Leshoure, Det. | Illinois | 1697 | 20 |
| 2008 | 1 | 23 | Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt. | Illinois | 1681 | 19 |
| 2012 | 1 | 3 | Trent Richardson, Clev. | Alabama | 1679 | 24 |
| 2015 | 2 | 54 | Ameer Abdullah, Det. | Nebraska | 1611 | 22 |
| 2011 | 2 | 62 | Daniel Thomas, Mia. | Kansas State | 1585 | 19 |
| 2014 | 2 | 57 | Carlos Hyde, S.F. | Ohio State | 1521 | 18 |
| 2009 | 2 | 53 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | Pittsburgh | 1488 | 21 |
| 2006 | 1 | 21 | Laurence Maroney, N.E. | Minnesota | 1464 | 11 |
| 2008 | 1 | 24 | Chris Johnson, Tenn. | East Carolina | 1423 | 23 |
| 2014 | 2 | 55 | Jeremy Hill, Cin. | Louisiana State | 1401 | 16 |
| 2009 | 1 | 12 | Knowshon Moreno, Den. | Georgia | 1400 | 18 |
| 2010 | 2 | 58 | Ben Tate, Hou. | Auburn | 1362 | 10 |
| 2007 | 1 | 12 | Marshawn Lynch, Buff. | California | 1356 | 15 |
| 2010 | 2 | 59 | Montario Hardesty, Clev. | Tennessee | 1345 | 14 |
| 2013 | 2 | 61 | Eddie Lacy, G.B. | Alabama | 1322 | 19 |
| 2006 | 2 | 45 | LenDale White, Tenn. | Southern California | 1302 | 26 |
| 2012 | 1 | 31 | Doug Martin, T.B. | Boise State | 1299 | 18 |
| 2012 | 2 | 50 | Isaiah Pead, St.L. | Cincinnati | 1259 | 15 |
| 2013 | 2 | 37 | Giovani Bernard, Cin. | North Carolina | 1228 | 17 |
| 2010 | 1 | 9 | C.J. Spiller, Buff. | Clemson | 1212 | 16 |
| 2009 | 1 | 31 | Beanie Wells, Ariz. | Ohio State | 1197 | 8 |
| 2011 | 2 | 56 | Shane Vereen, N.E. | California | 1167 | 16 |
| 2008 | 1 | 22 | Felix Jones, Dall. | Arkansas | 1162 | 11 |
| 2007 | 1 | 7 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | Oklahoma | 1012 | 13 |
| 2007 | 2 | 63 | Brandon Jackson, G.B. | Nebraska | 989 | 10 |
| 2015 | 2 | 36 | T.J. Yeldon, Jac. | Alabama | 979 | 12 |
| 2006 | 2 | 60 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | UCLA | 914 | 17 |
| 2015 | 1 | 10 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | Georgia | 911 | 9 |
| 2006 | 1 | 30 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | Louisiana State | 911 | 10 |
| 2007 | 2 | 49 | Kenny Irons, Cin. | Auburn | 893 | 4 |
| 2011 | 1 | 28 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | Alabama | 875 | 14 |
| 2010 | 1 | 30 | Jahvid Best, Det. | California | 867 | 16 |
| 2007 | 2 | 50 | Chris Henry, Tenn. | Arizona | 581 | 8 |
| 2011 | 2 | 38 | Ryan Williams, Ariz. | Virginia Tech | 477 | 10 |
| 2013 | 2 | 62 | Christine Michael, Sea. | Texas A&M | 417 | 12 |
--Andy Richardson