With kickers, you can get into over-analyzing accuracy and power, falling into the trap of believing that the quality of the kicker is the driving influence in how well he’ll perform. In reality, his fortunes are far more dependent on the team around him – how often he gets on the field.
Below see the cumulative numbers for two different scoring systems. The first is standard NFL points – 3 points for each field goal, and 1 for each PAT. These are the regular standard points you see listed with regular NFL statistics. (And following that number, I’ve got his rank using that system).
Then you can get into the more complex system of awarding 3 points for field goals under 40 yards, a bonus point for those of 40-plus, and an additional bonus point for those over 50. Additionally, we can add in a negative point for missing a field goal or extra point (so with PATs, kickers either get a point or lose a point each time).
With the more complex system, kickers (on average) tend to score an extra 7 points per season – about a half point per week. But you don’t see much difference in the overall lay of the land. Stephen Gostkowski and Graham Gano are still the top 2, and Nick Novak, Greg Zuerlein, Ryan Succop and Andrew Franks are still outside the top 25.
The one notable mover I see is Chandler Catanzaro, who missed a few too many easy kicks last year, causing him to drop from 3rd to 9th in scoring at the position.
With kickers, best to pretty much ignore power and accuracy (all of these guys are good) and instead focus on trying to latch onto one of the good teams.
| KICKERS: NFL POINTS VS. PERFORMANCE SYSTEM | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | NFL | Rk | Perf | Rk | Diff |
| Stephen Gostkowski, N.E. | 151 | 1 | 168 | 1 | 17 |
| Graham Gano, Car. | 146 | 2 | 154 | 2 | 8 |
| Josh Brown, NYG | 134 | 5 | 145 | 3 | 11 |
| Blair Walsh, Minn. | 135 | 4 | 144 | 4 | 9 |
| Robbie Gould, Chi. | 127 | 8t | 141 | 5 | 14 |
| Steven Hauschka, Sea. | 127 | 8t | 140 | 6 | 13 |
| Justin Tucker, Balt. | 128 | 7 | 139 | 7 | 11 |
| Cairo Santos, K.C. | 129 | 6 | 137 | 8 | 8 |
| Chandler Catanzaro, Ariz. | 137 | 3 | 135 | 9 | -2 |
| Brandon McManus, Den. | 125 | 10 | 134 | 10 | 9 |
| Dan Bailey, Dall. | 115 | 12 | 129 | 11 | 14 |
| Mike Nugent, Cin. | 117 | 11 | 125 | 12 | 8 |
| Chris Boswell, Pitt. | 113 | 14 | 122 | 13 | 9 |
| Dustin Hopkins, Wash. | 114 | 13 | 121 | 14 | 7 |
| Mason Crosby, G.B. | 108 | 16 | 120 | 15 | 12 |
| Adam Vinatieri, Ind. | 107 | 17 | 118 | 16 | 11 |
| Josh Lambo, S.D. | 106 | 18t | 115 | 17 | 9 |
| Matt Prater, Det. | 102 | 21 | 113 | 18 | 11 |
| Jason Myers, Jac. | 110 | 15 | 111 | 19 | 1 |
| Sebastian Janikowski, Oak. | 101 | 22 | 108 | 20 | 7 |
| Travis Coons, Clev. | 106 | 18t | 107 | 21 | 1 |
| Dan Carpenter, Buff. | 103 | 20 | 106 | 22 | 3 |
| Phil Dawson, S.F. | 92 | 24 | 100 | 23 | 8 |
| Connor Barth, T.B. | 94 | 23 | 97 | 24 | 3 |
| Caleb Sturgis, Phil. | 89 | 25 | 91 | 25 | 2 |
| Nick Novak, Hou. | 83 | 27 | 86 | 26 | 3 |
| Greg Zuerlein, St.L. | 86 | 26 | 85 | 27 | -1 |
| Randy Bullock, Hou.-NYJ | 79 | 28 | 80 | 28 | 1 |
| Ryan Succop, Tenn. | 71 | 30 | 76 | 29 | 5 |
| Andrew Franks, Mia. | 72 | 29 | 72 | 30 | 0 |
| Matt Bryant, Atl. | 68 | 31 | 70 | 31 | 2 |
| Kai Forbath, N.O. | 64 | 33 | 65 | 34 | 1 |
| Randy Bullock, NYJ | 61 | 32 | 63 | 32 | 2 |
| Nick Folk, NYJ | 58 | 34 | 62 | 33 | 4 |
| Shayne Graham, Atl. | 41 | 35 | 47 | 35 | 6 |
| Josh Scobee, Pitt. | 24 | 36t | 22 | 36 | -2 |
| Kyle Brindza, T.B. | 24 | 36t | 21 | 37 | -3 |
| Randy Bullock, Hou. | 18 | 38 | 17 | 38 | -1 |
| Cody Parkey, Phil. | 16 | 39 | 16 | 39 | 0 |
| Ryan Quigley, NYJ | 4 | 40t | 4 | 40t | 0 |
| Zach Hocker, St.L. | 4 | 40t | 4 | 40t | 0 |
—Ian Allan