There’s a tendency with running backs, I think, to think of them in absolute terms. “This guy’s going to catch the passes on third downs” or “this guy is going to score the 1-yard touchdowns”. But it’s almost always more complicated than that. Players get hurt, and most teams use multiple backs.
Consider, for example, the myth that a running back can be counted on to score essentially all of his team’s short-yardage touchdowns. It almost never happens.
In the NFL last year, only 17 running backs had more than half of their team’s rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line. Chris Ivory and Latavius Murray (who weren’t coveted in fantasy drafts) were the only players with more than 80 percent of those carries. Only four other teams had a player with 70-plus percent.
Those plays around the goal line are the most important of all, so we carefully track them and load them into a database, allowing use to sort and parse them in various ways. And by our count, we have only 17 players with more than half of their team’s rushing attempts on plays starting from the 1-5 yard line. There are four other players who exactly half of those carries.
On these charts, notice that I am using “EZ” rather than “TD”. This is because I am including 2-point conversions. Those are official NFL plays, but they seem important for fantasy purposes, so I’m leaving them in there.
| PLAYERS WITH AT LEAST HALF OF GOAL-LINE CARRIES | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Att | Yds | EZ | Team | Pct Att |
| Chris Ivory, NYJ | 18 | 9 | 5 | 22-17-6 | 82% |
| Latavius Murray, Oak. | 9 | 5 | 4 | 11-7-4 | 82% |
| DeAngelo Williams, Pitt. | 18 | 21 | 10 | 24-23-13 | 75% |
| Jeremy Hill, Cin. | 17 | 23 | 10 | 24-26-12 | 71% |
| Isaiah Crowell, Clev. | 7 | 3 | 2 | 10-1-2 | 70% |
| Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 16 | 6 | 4 | 23-15-8 | 70% |
| Frank Gore, Ind. | 9 | 2 | 2 | 13-0-2 | 69% |
| Todd Gurley, St.L. | 10 | 15 | 6 | 15-26-10 | 67% |
| Danny Woodhead, S.D. | 6 | -1 | 2 | 9-0-3 | 67% |
| Ronnie Hillman, Den. | 10 | -8 | 3 | 16--4-4 | 63% |
| Joique Bell, Det. | 10 | 6 | 4 | 16-18-5 | 63% |
| Eddie Lacy, G.B. | 8 | 10 | 3 | 13-17-5 | 62% |
| Darren McFadden, Dall. | 6 | 4 | 2 | 10-7-5 | 60% |
| Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 13 | 15 | 5 | 22-20-6 | 59% |
| Lamar Miller, Mia. | 7 | 2 | 4 | 12-5-6 | 58% |
| DeMarco Murray, Phil. | 11 | 15 | 3 | 19-18-9 | 58% |
| Doug Martin, T.B. | 11 | 18 | 5 | 20-37-10 | 55% |
| Matt Forte, Chi. | 12 | 13 | 3 | 24-36-12 | 50% |
| LeGarrette Blount, N.E. | 11 | 14 | 5 | 22-21-10 | 50% |
| Chris Johnson, Ariz. | 10 | 0 | 1 | 20-9-7 | 50% |
| Javorius Allen, Balt. | 8 | 11 | 1 | 16-14-5 | 50% |
| OTHERS WITH AT LEAST 5 CARRIES | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Att | Yds | EZ | Team | Pct Att |
| Jonathan Stewart, Car. | 12 | 13 | 5 | 31-41-14 | 39% |
| Mark Ingram, N.O. | 11 | 14 | 5 | 30-34-14 | 37% |
| Cam Newton, Car. | 11 | 23 | 8 | 31-41-14 | 35% |
| Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 9 | 12 | 4 | 22-18-9 | 41% |
| Jeremy Langford, Chi. | 9 | 14 | 6 | 24-36-12 | 38% |
| Andre Williams, NYG | 8 | -1 | 2 | 18-8-4 | 44% |
| David Johnson, Ariz. | 8 | 8 | 5 | 20-9-7 | 40% |
| Tim Hightower, N.O. | 8 | 8 | 4 | 30-34-14 | 27% |
| LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 7 | 12 | 2 | 15-24-8 | 47% |
| Spencer Ware, K.C. | 7 | 17 | 5 | 16-33-10 | 44% |
| Jameis Winston, T.B. | 7 | 20 | 5 | 20-37-10 | 35% |
| Thomas Rawls, Sea. | 7 | 6 | 3 | 22-18-9 | 32% |
| Mike Tolbert, Car. | 7 | 7 | 1 | 31-41-14 | 23% |
| Charcandrick West, K.C. | 6 | 8 | 2 | 16-33-10 | 38% |
| Matt Jones, Wash. | 6 | -2 | 2 | 16-5-6 | 38% |
| Rashad Jennings, NYG | 6 | 9 | 2 | 18-8-4 | 33% |
| T.J. Yeldon, Jac. | 6 | 7 | 1 | 19-11-4 | 32% |
| Ryan Mathews, Phil. | 6 | 1 | 4 | 19-18-9 | 32% |
| Antonio Andrews, Tenn. | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19-18-6 | 32% |
| Alfred Morris, Wash. | 5 | 4 | 1 | 16-5-6 | 31% |
| Denard Robinson, Jac. | 5 | 0 | 1 | 19-11-4 | 26% |
| Toby Gerhart, Jac. | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19-11-4 | 26% |
| Tevin Coleman, Atl. | 5 | 3 | 1 | 22-20-6 | 23% |
—Ian Allan