Andy posted the blurb earlier in which the Falcons were speculating that Devonta Freeman would be spelled more heavily this year. Makes sense to me. Tevin Coleman is a faster, more talented back.
Coleman was drafted a round earlier than Freeman, recall (a third rounder in 2015, after they selected Freeman in the fourth the previous year). I saw him make a couple of eye-catching runs in the preseason, and he opened last season as their starter. It was a rib injury at New York in Week 2 that opened the door for Freeman to take over.
Coleman should be more knowledgeable and confident this year, while Freeman doesn’t quite have star back measurables. In the second half of last year, Coleman had the team’s only 100-yard rushing game. Freeman in the second half of the season averaged only 3.1 yards per carry – last among the 27 running backs with at least 80 attempts in those games.
So I am definitely on board with the idea that it’s more of a one-two punch this year. That’s why I selected Mark Ingram before Freeman in the middle of the second round in that ongoing Fanex Analysis Draft. Freeman carried a huge workload in most of his starts last year; should be more of a committee this season.
With these two backs, however, the big difference is receiving production. Freeman is really good out of the backfield; he averaged 40 receiving yards in the 13 games he started last year. That was the most of any starting running back (three third-down style backs averaged more).
Coleman, on the other hand, thus far has been historically awful as a pass catcher. They tried to get him the ball on 11 pass plays last year, and he caught only 2 of them. Among running backs with at least 10 targets, that was the worst of any running back in the last five years. (And maybe 10 or 15 years – I don’t have all the stats for this category.)
Coleman no doubt won’t be so awful in the future. He’ll get a better feel for the kind of routes their using him on. Of the other 29 running backs who’ve caught under 60 percent of the passes thrown their way over the last five years, eight of them have had at least 50 catches in a another season. I have those guys tagged with black dots on the chart I’ve cooked up.
But Coleman is coming from way back as a pass catcher. They didn’t use him much in that capacity at Indiana, and it was a knock against him when he was scouted coming out. Certainly, he’s miles behind Freeman in that area.
So where does that leave us? Those who select Freeman most certainly will want to select Coleman later on. When the handcuff running backs start getting selected, Coleman will be one of the first to go.
| BACKS CATCHING UNDER 60 PERCENT OF PASSES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Tgt | No | Yds | Pct | Avg |
| 2015 | Tevin Coleman, Atl. | 11 | 2 | 14 | 18% | 1.3 |
| 2015 | • Reggie Bush, S.F. | 10 | 4 | 19 | 40% | 1.9 |
| 2012 | Stevan Ridley, N.E. | 14 | 6 | 51 | 43% | 3.6 |
| 2013 | Greg Jones, Hou. | 11 | 5 | 34 | 45% | 3.1 |
| 2015 | • Chris Johnson, Ariz. | 13 | 6 | 58 | 46% | 4.5 |
| 2012 | Bilal Powell, NYJ | 36 | 17 | 140 | 47% | 3.9 |
| 2014 | Andre Williams, NYG | 37 | 18 | 130 | 49% | 3.5 |
| 2011 | Lance Ball, Den. | 32 | 16 | 148 | 50% | 4.6 |
| 2013 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 24 | 12 | 66 | 50% | 2.8 |
| 2012 | Lance Dunbar, Dall. | 12 | 6 | 33 | 50% | 2.8 |
| 2015 | Jeremy Langford, Chi. | 42 | 22 | 279 | 52% | 6.6 |
| 2015 | Mike Davis, S.F. | 13 | 7 | 38 | 54% | 2.9 |
| 2013 | Jordan Todman, Jac. | 26 | 14 | 116 | 54% | 4.5 |
| 2013 | John Conner, NYG | 11 | 6 | 31 | 55% | 2.8 |
| 2011 | • Frank Gore, S.F. | 31 | 17 | 114 | 55% | 3.7 |
| 2011 | Vonta Leach, Balt. | 27 | 15 | 69 | 56% | 2.6 |
| 2015 | • Roy Helu Jr., Oak. | 16 | 9 | 75 | 56% | 4.7 |
| 2012 | LaRod Stephens-Howling, Ariz. | 30 | 17 | 106 | 57% | 3.5 |
| 2011 | Lorenzo Booker, Minn. | 14 | 8 | 82 | 57% | 5.9 |
| 2015 | Chris Polk, Hou. | 28 | 16 | 109 | 57% | 3.9 |
| 2012 | Will Johnson, Pitt. | 26 | 15 | 137 | 58% | 5.3 |
| 2013 | Vonta Leach, Balt. | 19 | 11 | 47 | 58% | 2.5 |
| 2014 | • Frank Gore, S.F. | 19 | 11 | 111 | 58% | 5.8 |
| 2013 | DaRel Scott, NYG | 19 | 11 | 102 | 58% | 5.4 |
| 2011 | • Danny Woodhead, N.E. | 31 | 18 | 157 | 58% | 5.1 |
| 2012 | Stanley Havili, Phil. | 12 | 7 | 43 | 58% | 3.6 |
| 2011 | Chester Taylor, Ariz. | 24 | 14 | 91 | 58% | 3.8 |
| 2015 | • Frank Gore, Ind. | 58 | 34 | 267 | 59% | 4.6 |
| 2015 | Charcandrick West, K.C. | 34 | 20 | 214 | 59% | 6.3 |
| 2013 | • Marcel Reece, Oak. | 54 | 32 | 331 | 59% | 6.1 |
—Ian Allan