Teams are getting ready to open training camps. Soon they’ll be playing their practice games. And as we work through this process in August, it’s important to remember that it’s not 2015 anymore. There will be changes – and real changes, not just incremental shifts.
Look at running backs, for example. Of the top-10 running backs of the last 10 years, almost half of those guys weren’t in the top 20 the previous year – 43 of those 100. Over a third of those running backs weren’t even in the top 30.
For this chart, I'm showing the player and the year he ranked in the top 10 (among backs). The numbers -- rank, yards and touchdowns -- show what he did in his previous season.
| TOP-10 BACKS COMING FROM OUTSIDE THE TOP 20 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rnk | Rec | Run | Tot | TD |
| 2006 | Frank Gore, S.F. | 33 | 131 | 608 | 739 | 3 |
| 2006 | Deuce McAllister, N.O. | 42 | 117 | 335 | 452 | 3 |
| 2006 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | Rookie | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2007 | Willis McGahee, Balt. | 24 | 156 | 990 | 1,146 | 6 |
| 2007 | Clinton Portis, Wash. | 33 | 170 | 523 | 693 | 7 |
| 2007 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | Rookie | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2008 | Thomas Jones, NYJ | 21 | 217 | 1,119 | 1,336 | 2 |
| 2008 | DeAngelo Williams, Car. | 28 | 175 | 717 | 892 | 5 |
| 2008 | Michael Turner, S.D. | 59 | 16 | 316 | 332 | 1 |
| 2008 | Steve Slaton, Hou. | Rookie | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2008 | Matt Forte, Chi. | Rookie | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2009 | Ryan Grant, G.B. | 22 | 116 | 1,203 | 1,319 | 5 |
| 2009 | Ricky Williams, Mia. | 36 | 219 | 659 | 878 | 5 |
| 2009 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | 37 | 206 | 544 | 750 | 7 |
| 2009 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 51 | 273 | 454 | 727 | 0 |
| 2010 | Michael Turner, Atl. | 21 | 35 | 871 | 906 | 10 |
| 2010 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 35 | 308 | 637 | 945 | 4 |
| 2010 | Darren McFadden, Oak. | 50 | 245 | 357 | 602 | 1 |
| 2010 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 56 | 93 | 257 | 350 | 3 |
| 2010 | Peyton Hillis, Clev. | 97 | 19 | 54 | 73 | 1 |
| 2011 | Michael Bush, Oak. | 26 | 194 | 655 | 849 | 8 |
| 2011 | Ryan Mathews, S.D. | 29 | 145 | 678 | 823 | 7 |
| 2011 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 30 | 145 | 737 | 882 | 6 |
| 2011 | Darren Sproles, N.O. | 39 | 520 | 267 | 787 | 2 |
| 2012 | C.J. Spiller, Buff. | 31 | 269 | 561 | 830 | 6 |
| 2012 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 95 | 9 | 83 | 92 | 1 |
| 2012 | Trent Richardson, Ind. | Rookie | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2012 | Alfred Morris, Wash. | Rookie | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2012 | Doug Martin, T.B. | Rookie | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2013 | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 24 | 251 | 663 | 914 | 4 |
| 2013 | Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 31 | 167 | 525 | 692 | 4 |
| 2013 | Eddie Lacy, G.B. | Rookie | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2014 | Lamar Miller, Mia. | 34 | 170 | 709 | 879 | 2 |
| 2014 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 40 | 183 | 542 | 725 | 2 |
| 2014 | Justin Forsett, Balt. | 74 | 82 | 31 | 113 | 0 |
| 2014 | Jeremy Hill, Cin. | Rookie | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2015 | Latavius Murray, Oak. | 40 | 143 | 424 | 567 | 2 |
| 2015 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 41 | 64 | 494 | 558 | 2 |
| 2015 | Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 47 | 225 | 248 | 473 | 2 |
| 2015 | DeAngelo Williams, Pitt. | 62 | 44 | 219 | 263 | 0 |
| 2015 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 69 | 18 | 75 | 93 | 0 |
| 2015 | David Johnson, Ariz. | Rookie | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2015 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | Rookie | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Breaking it down, 11 of those 43 running backs were rookies. Only 9 of those running backs were guys who went from at least ranking in the top 30. So 23 of running backs (almost a quarter of all top-10 running backs) were players who played but didn’t even rank in the top 30 the previous season.
Bottom line: stuff changes a lot.
So when organizing your board, it’s not good enough to just kind of poke the guys around a little. That is, when you’re watching somebody like Duke Johnson Jr. or Carlos Hyde and you feel like they’re going to be a breakout back, it’s not good enough to say, “This guy ranked 30th among running backs last year; I’m going to move him up to 25th.”
More aggressiveness is needed. You’ve got to take a stand on some of the players, even while many around you see things playing out different. Much of that noise is created by people who don’t look at it carefully enough and are falling into the trap of thinking that 2016 should be pretty similar to 2015.
—Ian Allan