There’s a mentality that receivers are safer selections than running backs. Backs are more likely to get injured, and they’re more likely to be affected by offensive line injuries. With elite wide receivers like Antonio Brown and Julio Jones, they’re the proverbial “shoo-in” pick – you get what you pay for?
But is this actually true?
Glancing at the numbers from the last 10 years, the performance data isn’t as dominate as you might think.
For each position, I took the top-5 guys from each year. Then I looked at how they did in their following season.
Running backs, their numbers were only 67 percent as good, with an average decline of 557 yards and 6 fewer touchdowns. Not very good. Only six of the running backs came back and put up even better numbers.
But the wide receiver numbers weren’t great either. Their numbers were only 76 percent as good, with an average decline of 290 yards and almost 4 fewer touchdowns. Only 9 of the 50 wide receivers came back and put up better numbers.
(On the wide receivers, by the way, I left out Jordy Nelson, who was a top-5 player in 2014 but suffered a season-ending knee injury long before the 2015 even started.
Receivers have been more consistent than running backs (in following seasons) but not fair to call them lead-pipe locks.
Here are the top 50 receivers of the last 10 years, ranked by production in their big seasons. The numbers shown are their stats from their next season. If a player improved, he’s in bold. For fantasy scoring, I’m using 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards.
| TOP 50 RECEIVERS SINCE 2005 (the next year) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Yards | TD | Improve |
| 2008 | Randy Moss, N.E. | 69 | 1,008 | 11 | -42% |
| 2012 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 122 | 1,964 | 5 | -15% |
| 2015 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 136 | 1,834 | 11 | -2% |
| 2006 | Steve Smith Sr., Car. | 83 | 1,166 | 9 | -25% |
| 2015 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 105 | 1,304 | 6 | -28% |
| 2015 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 31 | 401 | 3 | -75% |
| 2014 | Josh Gordon, Clev. | 24 | 303 | 0 | -87% |
| 2014 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 111 | 1,619 | 11 | 1% |
| 2013 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 84 | 1,492 | 12 | -2% |
| 2008 | Terrell Owens, Dall. | 69 | 1,052 | 10 | -25% |
| 2008 | Braylon Edwards, Clev. | 55 | 873 | 3 | -51% |
| 2014 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 71 | 1,077 | 8 | -30% |
| 2013 | Brandon Marshall, Chi. | 100 | 1,295 | 12 | -5% |
| 2012 | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 49 | 745 | 7 | -45% |
| 2009 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 97 | 1,092 | 13 | -13% |
| 2012 | Wes Welker, N.E. | 118 | 1,354 | 6 | -19% |
| 2010 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 86 | 1,216 | 8 | -20% |
| 2013 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 93 | 1,233 | 13 | -5% |
| 2008 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 82 | 1,145 | 6 | -28% |
| 2011 | Brandon Lloyd, Den.-St.L. | 70 | 966 | 5 | -39% |
| 2014 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 69 | 1,041 | 6 | -33% |
| 2007 | Marvin Harrison, Ind. | 20 | 247 | 1 | -85% |
| 2012 | Victor Cruz, NYG | 86 | 1,092 | 10 | -19% |
| 2009 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 67 | 984 | 5 | -34% |
| 2011 | Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | 81 | 1,159 | 5 | -29% |
| 2015 | Randall Cobb, G.B. | 79 | 829 | 7 | -37% |
| 2010 | Randy Moss, N.E.-Min.-Ten. | 28 | 393 | 5 | -66% |
| 2015 | Odell Beckham Jr., NYG | 96 | 1,450 | 13 | 8% |
| 2009 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 101 | 1,569 | 9 | 4% |
| 2014 | Brandon Marshall, Chi. | 61 | 721 | 8 | -42% |
| 2006 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 69 | 946 | 6 | -36% |
| 2013 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 98 | 1,426 | 11 | 2% |
| 2013 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 92 | 1,430 | 14 | 12% |
| 2011 | Roddy White, Atl. | 100 | 1,296 | 8 | -13% |
| 2006 | Anquan Boldin, Ariz. | 83 | 1,203 | 4 | -27% |
| 2010 | DeSean Jackson, Phil. | 47 | 1,056 | 8 | -19% |
| 2008 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 96 | 1,431 | 12 | 7% |
| 2006 | Santana Moss, Wash. | 55 | 790 | 6 | -38% |
| 2011 | Greg Jennings, G.B. | 67 | 949 | 9 | -25% |
| 2007 | Terrell Owens, Dall. | 81 | 1,355 | 15 | 14% |
| 2010 | Miles Austin, Dall. | 69 | 1,041 | 8 | -18% |
| 2011 | Mike Wallace, Pitt. | 72 | 1,193 | 8 | -9% |
| 2006 | Joey Galloway, T.B. | 62 | 1,057 | 7 | -21% |
| 2012 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 71 | 798 | 4 | -45% |
| 2010 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 90 | 1,137 | 6 | -19% |
| 2007 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 104 | 1,510 | 10 | 13% |
| 2009 | Greg Jennings, G.B. | 68 | 1,113 | 4 | -24% |
| 2009 | Steve Smith Sr., Car. | 65 | 982 | 7 | -21% |
| 2007 | Chad Johnson, Cin. | 93 | 1,440 | 8 | 8% |
| 2007 | Donald Driver, G.B. | 82 | 1,048 | 2 | -35% |
And here are the same numbers for running backs.
| TOP 50 RUNNING BACKS SINCE 2005 (the next year) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Run | Rec | Total | TD | Imp |
| 2007 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1,474 | 475 | 1,949 | 18 | -28% |
| 2006 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 896 | 48 | 944 | 7 | -63% |
| 2010 | Chris Johnson, Tenn. | 1,364 | 245 | 1,609 | 12 | -33% |
| 2006 | Larry Johnson, K.C. | 1,789 | 410 | 2,199 | 19 | 0% |
| 2007 | Larry Johnson, K.C. | 559 | 186 | 745 | 4 | -71% |
| 2011 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 1,224 | 617 | 1,841 | 12 | -22% |
| 2007 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 1,002 | 271 | 1,273 | 6 | -49% |
| 2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1,815 | 508 | 2,323 | 31 | 35% |
| 2014 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 1,033 | 291 | 1,324 | 14 | -31% |
| 2013 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 1,266 | 171 | 1,437 | 11 | -33% |
| 2006 | Tiki Barber, NYG | 1,662 | 465 | 2,127 | 5 | -21% |
| 2008 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1,110 | 426 | 1,536 | 12 | -26% |
| 2015 | DeMarco Murray, Phil. | 702 | 322 | 1,024 | 7 | -53% |
| 2012 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 1,143 | 478 | 1,621 | 10 | -26% |
| 2010 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 1,298 | 341 | 1,639 | 13 | -17% |
| 2015 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 556 | 136 | 692 | 3 | -70% |
| 2009 | DeAngelo Williams, Car. | 1,117 | 252 | 1,369 | 7 | -37% |
| 2008 | Brian Westbrook, Phil. | 936 | 402 | 1,338 | 14 | -23% |
| 2012 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 840 | 373 | 1,213 | 5 | -46% |
| 2014 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 1,319 | 155 | 1,474 | 5 | -37% |
| 2009 | Michael Turner, Atl. | 871 | 35 | 906 | 10 | -45% |
| 2010 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 1,324 | 317 | 1,641 | 7 | -24% |
| 2007 | Frank Gore, S.F. | 1,102 | 436 | 1,538 | 6 | -30% |
| 2015 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 417 | 80 | 497 | 3 | -74% |
| 2006 | Edgerrin James, Ariz. | 1,159 | 217 | 1,376 | 6 | -35% |
| 2007 | Willie Parker, Pitt. | 1,316 | 164 | 1,480 | 2 | -40% |
| 2014 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 1,038 | 808 | 1,846 | 10 | -7% |
| 2013 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 542 | 183 | 725 | 2 | -67% |
| 2013 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 456 | 66 | 522 | 1 | -78% |
| 2012 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 414 | 86 | 500 | 2 | -77% |
| 2012 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 1,424 | 217 | 1,641 | 17 | 4% |
| 2010 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 1,220 | 556 | 1,776 | 6 | -15% |
| 2013 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 1,257 | 316 | 1,573 | 14 | -4% |
| 2015 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 898 | 389 | 1,287 | 7 | -31% |
| 2009 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 1,383 | 436 | 1,819 | 18 | 17% |
| 2013 | Alfred Morris, Wash. | 1,275 | 78 | 1,353 | 7 | -28% |
| 2009 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 929 | 471 | 1,400 | 4 | -32% |
| 2011 | Peyton Hillis, Clev. | 587 | 130 | 717 | 3 | -63% |
| 2009 | Thomas Jones, Chi. | 1,402 | 58 | 1,460 | 14 | -5% |
| 2011 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 970 | 139 | 1,109 | 13 | -22% |
| 2011 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 83 | 9 | 92 | 1 | -94% |
| 2014 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 1,306 | 367 | 1,673 | 17 | 12% |
| 2015 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 163 | 227 | 390 | 3 | -76% |
| 2008 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 1,760 | 125 | 1,885 | 10 | 4% |
| 2014 | Knowshon Moreno, Mia. | 148 | 8 | 156 | 1 | -91% |
| 2008 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | 544 | 206 | 750 | 7 | -50% |
| 2008 | Clinton Portis, Wash. | 1,487 | 218 | 1,705 | 9 | -5% |
| 2011 | Chris Johnson, Tenn. | 1,047 | 418 | 1,465 | 4 | -27% |
| 2010 | Frank Gore, S.F. | 853 | 452 | 1,305 | 5 | -30% |
| 2012 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 1,590 | 196 | 1,786 | 12 | 14% |
—Ian Allan