I will throw one more Strength of Schedule chart at you. Call it a make-good, since I made such a mess of the others. One this one, I’ll flip it around and look at the defenses. That is, which defenses might benefit from getting to face quarterbacks who cough up more interceptions and sacks.
For the feeder numbers, I am not using team totals from last year but instead the last 16 games for each of the expected starting quarterbacks. So if a guy didn’t start 16 games last year, I’ve dipped into his previous seasons. And if a player doesn’t have 16 career starts, I went with a prorated total.
For one team, San Francisco, I went with combined totals from last year for Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick. Both of those guys might start games.
Anyway, the feeder stats are as follows:
QUARTERBACKS: LAST 16 STARTS | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Player | Int | Sack |
Arizona | Carson Palmer | 11 | 25 |
Atlanta | Matt Ryan | 16 | 30 |
Baltimore | Joe Flacco | 16 | 21 |
Buffalo | • Tyrod Taylor | 7 | 41 |
Carolina | Cam Newton | 10 | 33 |
Chicago | Jay Cutler | 11 | 31 |
Cincinnati | Andy Dalton | 11 | 25 |
Cleveland | Robert Griffin III | 14 | 56 |
Dallas | Tony Romo | 12 | 28 |
Denver | Mark Sanchez | 22 | 40 |
Detroit | Matthew Stafford | 13 | 44 |
Green Bay | Aaron Rodgers | 8 | 46 |
Houston | • Brock Osweiler | 11 | 53 |
Indianapolis | Andrew Luck | 21 | 31 |
Jacksonville | Blake Bortles | 18 | 51 |
Kansas City | Alex Smith | 7 | 45 |
Los Angeles | • Case Keenum | 10 | 28 |
Miami | Ryan Tannehill | 12 | 45 |
Minnesota | Teddy Bridgewater | 9 | 44 |
New England | Tom Brady | 7 | 38 |
New Orleans | Drew Brees | 14 | 33 |
NY Giants | Eli Manning | 14 | 27 |
NY Jets | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 15 | 19 |
Oakland | Derek Carr | 13 | 31 |
Philadelphia | Sam Bradford | 15 | 30 |
Pittsburgh | Ben Roethlisberger | 18 | 23 |
San Diego | Philip Rivers | 13 | 40 |
San Francisco | • Kaepernick/Gabbert | 15 | 53 |
Seattle | Russell Wilson | 8 | 45 |
Tampa Bay | Jameis Winston | 15 | 27 |
Tennessee | • Marcus Mariota | 13 | 51 |
Washington | Kirk Cousins | 11 | 26 |
If we take those numbers and then project them into the 256 regular season games that will be played in 2016, we can see the totals that will be faced by defenses. Gives an idea of which teams – defenses – might be helped along by poor quarterback play.
The differences are pretty significant. The Titans, for example, will see quarterbacks who were sacked a combined 692 times last year. That’s 200 more than the 49ers, Steelers and Browns, who are down at the other end of the scale.
Kansas City comes out No. 1 in interceptions, with 24 more interceptions than any other defense.
Earlier I pointed out that scheduling was going to be touch for San Francisco’s offense. It also projects to be tough on their defense, which is sitting way down at only 166 combined interceptions – 16 fewer than any other defense.
Note that a few days back I was pointing out that Jacksonville might have a breakout-type defense. Note that the schedule indicates this group also could be helped along by who it’s playing.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, DEFENSES | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Rk | Team | Int | Sacks | Total |
1. | Tennessee | 226 | 692 | 918 |
2. | Indianapolis | 215 | 671 | 886 |
3. | San Diego | 229 | 641 | 870 |
4. | Houston | 219 | 649 | 868 |
5. | Jacksonville | 210 | 652 | 862 |
6. | Chicago | 206 | 644 | 850 |
7. | Oakland | 219 | 625 | 844 |
8. | Green Bay | 206 | 609 | 815 |
9. | Kansas City | 253 | 555 | 808 |
10. | Denver | 203 | 603 | 806 |
11. | Minnesota | 201 | 596 | 797 |
12. | Detroit | 195 | 599 | 794 |
13. | New England | 204 | 579 | 782 |
14. | NY Jets | 182 | 600 | 782 |
15. | Arizona | 183 | 594 | 777 |
16. | Cincinnati | 221 | 555 | 776 |
17. | Atlanta | 200 | 569 | 768 |
18. | Carolina | 209 | 557 | 765 |
19. | Miami | 194 | 571 | 764 |
20. | Buffalo | 202 | 562 | 763 |
21. | Tampa Bay | 202 | 558 | 759 |
22. | Los Angeles | 189 | 570 | 759 |
23. | New Orleans | 210 | 546 | 755 |
24. | Baltimore | 210 | 544 | 754 |
25. | Dallas | 210 | 542 | 752 |
26. | Philadelphia | 198 | 527 | 725 |
27. | Washington | 200 | 525 | 725 |
28. | Seattle | 188 | 536 | 724 |
29. | NY Giants | 200 | 519 | 718 |
30. | Cleveland | 207 | 484 | 691 |
31. | Pittsburgh | 189 | 478 | 667 |
32. | San Francisco | 166 | 493 | 659 |
—Ian Allan