Fantasy Index

Factoid

Preseason

Do unheralded stars of August have a chance to stick around?

The first rack of preseason games is in the books, and lots of nobodies are bubbling to the surface to state their claim to roster spots. Most notably, George Atkinson III rips off a couple of long touchdowns at Arizona. Terrance West scores a pair of touchdowns in Baltimore. And Mike Davis was tearing it up pretty good for the 49ers. Mike Gillislee looked pretty good for Buffalo. But what are the chances of these guys actually having any fantasy value?

The odds are stacked against running backs who weren’t even drafted (like Atkinson). But some of these players do wind up being relevant players.

I have gotten out the numbers from recent years. In this century (the 2000-2015 seasons) 61 times a running back who wasn’t even drafted ended up being a top-30 fantasy back in a season. That’s using the scoring system of 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards.

Priest Holmes and Arian Foster are the poster children of this group. Each were top-5 backs multiple times.

UNDRAFTED RUNNING BACKS WITH TOP-30 SEASONS (2000-2015)
YearPlayerRunRecTotalTDPointsRk
2003Priest Holmes, K.C.1,4206902,11027373.01
2002Priest Holmes, K.C.1,6156722,28724372.71
2010Arian Foster, Hou.1,6166042,22018330.01
2001Priest Holmes, K.C.1,5556142,16910276.92
2006Willie Parker, Pitt.1,4942221,71616267.65
2012Arian Foster, Hou.1,4242171,64117266.12
2000Mike Anderson, Den.1,5001691,66915258.94
2011Arian Foster, Hou.1,2246171,84112256.14
2014Arian Foster, Hou.1,2463271,57313239.35
2009Ryan Grant, G.B.1,2531971,45011211.08
2005Mike Anderson, Den.1,0142121,22613200.610
2004Priest Holmes, K.C.8921871,07915197.912
2001Dominic Rhodes, Ind.1,1042241,32810192.811
2013Fred Jackson, Buff.8903871,27710187.711
2010BenJarvus Green-Ellis, N.E.1,008851,09313187.315
2007Earnest Graham, T.B.8983241,22210182.211
2002Marcel Shipp, Ariz.8344131,2479178.721
2014C.J. Anderson, Den.8493241,17310177.312
2015Chris Ivory, NYJ1,0702171,2878176.78
2011Fred Jackson, Buff.9344421,3766173.614
2005Willie Parker, Pitt.1,2022181,4205172.015
2009Fred Jackson, Buff.1,0623711,4334171.316
2013Joique Bell, Det.6505471,1978169.716
2014Joique Bell, Det.8603221,1828166.214
2001Stacey Mack, Jac.8771651,04210164.216
2004Nick Goings, Car.8213941,2157163.522
2015Danny Woodhead, S.D.3367551,0919163.112
2010Mike Tolbert, S.D.73521695111163.119
2008Pierre Thomas, N.O.62528490912162.921
2008Ryan Grant, G.B.1,2031161,3195161.922
2007Willie Parker, Pitt.1,3161641,4802160.016
2000James Allen, Chi.1,1202911,4113159.124
2007Ryan Grant, G.B.9561451,1018158.117
2009Pierre Thomas, N.O.7933021,0958157.520
2010Fred Jackson, Buff.9272151,1427156.221
2012BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cin.1,0941041,1986155.819
2007Kenny Watson, Cin.7633741,1377155.719
2011Mike Tolbert, S.D.49043392310152.322
2014Matt Asiata, Minn.57031288210152.216
2013Danny Woodhead, N.E.4296051,0348151.419
2011BenJarvus Green-Ellis, N.E.66715982611148.624
2008Dominic Rhodes, Ind.5383028409140.026
2010LeGarrette Blount, T.B.1,007141,0216138.124
2003Troy Hambrick, Dall.972991,0715137.125
2014Chris Ivory, NYJ8211239447136.419
2013Pierre Thomas, N.O.5495131,0625136.223
2001Maurice Smith, Atl.7602309906135.024
2011Pierre Thomas, N.O.5624259876134.727
2006Mike Bell, Den.6771588358131.530
2010Danny Woodhead, N.E.5473799266128.628
2013LeGarrette Blount, N.E.772388107123.030
2011LeGarrette Blount, T.B.7811489295122.929
2014Fred Jackson, Buff.5255011,0263122.623
2015Thomas Rawls, Sea.830769065120.626
2015C.J. Anderson, Den.7201839035120.327
2015Isaiah Crowell, Clev.7061828885118.829
2014Isaiah Crowell, Clev.607876948117.428
2012Danny Woodhead, N.E.3014467477116.725
2015LeGarrette Blount, N.E.703437467116.630
2012Joique Bell, Det.4144858993107.929
2005Samkon Gado, G.B.582776597107.930

—Ian Allan

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