Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Is it time to jump ship on Andrew Luck and Eli Manning? Can Dez Bryant survive without Romo? Grading the fantasy football TV shows. Late-breaking adjustments on the fantasy draft board.
Question 1
Great job with the products this year as always! Is it time to redo the rankings for Eli Manning and Andrew Luck? Both offensive lines look considerably worse than last year. Giants look particularly bad under new head coach Ben McAdoo (like 4-wins bad). Can you talk me down off the ledge with my Giants? Luck looks set to break NFL records for most-sacked QB in history..
Rob Dammers (Ringwood, NJ)
Both teams have looked lousy, agreed. We just held our Player Selection Meeting on Monday night, and I tossed Andrew Luck out early – wanted to make sure somebody else paid a nice sum for him, so I wouldn’t have him on my roster. I’m not sure the Colts can get it doing – would not surprise me if they finished in last in that division (I like the look of the Texans). With Manning, we at least have precedent of him overcoming poor play in the preseason in the past. If you go back to 2014, it was McAdoo’s first year there. The system didn’t seem to fit Manning at all. He completed only 49 percent of his passes in the preseason, averaging only 4.8 yards per pass attempt. He also looked pretty lousy in Week 1, with the team losing by 21 points at Detroit. But a few weeks in, it clicked. Then Odell Beckham Jr. showed up and he put up the best passing numbers of his career. So while both of these guys look pretty suspect right now, let’s keep in mind that things change. They’re working on.
Question 2
Unfortunately, I had a draft on 8/28 and was working off the sheet from the end of the week and an updated one came out today. Ingram seems to have dropped very far. I had pick #2 and got him at 23, which wasn't bad. The one thing I did do was pass on Dez. I feared you were going to have them devalued after Romo's injury and it didn't look like you did. As good as that backup kid was he hasn't faced a real game defense yet.
Bill Petilli (Harrison, NY)
In both of those first two Dallas games, Dez Bryant was well covered, and Dak Prescott was still very comfortable going that way. I saw those guys combine for touchdowns on high throws in both of those games. So I think Bryant will be just fine.
Question 3
Do you, like most of us, spend Sunday mornings scanning the fantasy football shows seeking primarily injury, active/inactive lists and then sit down for seven hours of commercial free Red Zone programming? Do you, like many of us, feel the propping up of Michael Fabiano's and Matthew Berry's "expertise" on their respective fantasy shows to be a bit pompous? Do you like thousands of us, have a crush on Kay Adams?
ALBERT CHAPMAN (Naples, FL)
I actually don’t watch any of the fantasy shows. To me, that stuff is a level removed from what I’m looking for. That is, I’m interested in actual NFL news – who got hurt, benched, suspended or promoted – but I’m not interested in listening to others trying to interpret that news. (That’s what I’m supposed to do, right?) I have met both Fabiano and Berry, and they’re nice enough guys, but I don’t have any feel for what they’re all about. That is, I don’t know if they’re math guys (who are skilled at identifying statistical trends and creating accurate player projections), and I don’t know if they have special locker-room contacts. I don’t know how much time they spent watching games, or whether they have a good eye of what to look for. Speaking for myself, there have been 48 preseason games, and I’ve watched all of them. That takes a lot of time. With Fabiano and Berry constantly having to appear on television, I don’t know if they have enough time left to actually put in the work to become a true Jedi of the craft. For me, my schedule is so compressed that I focus on all the work that I need to get done. I want to be good at what I do, and I want to get the numbers and rankings just right. So there’s no time left for me to watch any of the fantasy shows, and I had never heard of Kay Adams (looking her up on Google, I see that she works for NBC Sports).
Question 4
I think Steve Wyche should be getting much more credit for "breaking" the Kaepernick story? I mean who else would notice a guy on the bench at the one and only time he shouldn't have his sorry rump planted there?
MARTIN DONNELLY (Elmhurst, IL)
Apparently Kaepernick did the same thing prior to the first two games and nobody noticed. It’s an interesting debate – standing during the anthem, burning flags or whatever. But that kind of stuff gets a lot more compelling when the athlete is really good at he does. Muhammad Ali in the ‘60s, or Tommie Smith and John Carlos at the Mexico City Olympics. With Kaepernick, we’re talking about a struggling quarterback who might not even be in the league a year from now. If the long-snapper for the Atlanta Falcons decides he’s not standing for the anthem, it’s a mild curiosity. If someone along the lines of Andrew Luck or Cam Newton decides he’s not standing, then we’ve got a legit issue that’s being discussed at every dinner table, workplace and classroom.
Question 5
We had our 20th draft in Vegas this weekend. I am just now starting to feel like a human once again.. Was surprised to see 3 WRs that I drafted drop like rocks in the Monday update: Tajae Sharpe, Bruce Ellington, Tyler Lockett. Sharpe, in particular, going from #47 to #72? That seems like you either WAY overvalued him last week, or really overreacted this week. Which do you think is closer to the truth? It's a 3 WR + Flex league, so I am now definitely scrambling for my #3 starter & reserves.
Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)
Ellington is hurt. Might not play all year. They put him on injured reserve. With Lockett, I wouldn’t have described him as a guy who feel. I thought Paul Richardson looked pretty good in the Dallas game. I decided to work him more as a fourth receiver, so shaved a little off Baldwin, Lockett and Kearse. I mean, if Richardson catches 4 TDs, those have to come from somewhere, right? Sharpe looked outstanding in the second exhibition, catching 6 of the 9 passes Mariota completed. But in the Oakland game, I thought Andre Johnson (a guy I’ve been trying to write off for more than year) looked like their best receiver. They’ve also got Delanie Walker and Rishard Matthews. And it definitely has the look of a run-oriented team. Maybe more accurate a run-dominated team. I did some surgery there. I’m not shy about moving guys around. Probably was too aggressive with Sharpe a week ago, and might be too aggressively moving him down now.
Question 6
First with some feedback. I love FFI and I have used your product since I started playing fantasy 20 years ago. I've had very good success in no small part due to your products. As the years have gone by web resources and real time info have caused me to say more than once, "There are no sleepers in fantasy football." With your data I've recently landed a few under the radar gems like Arian Foster and Alfred Morris. But for the most part we're far past the days having weekly updated info from FFI gave me a significant edge over the competition. All the good experts and professional rankers are following camps and beat writers, watching film, etc. So in my mind success in fantasy these days revolves around finding value relative to consensus rankings. With that in mind I am writing to request more frequent updates or news blasts to your subscribers during the time when most drafts/auctions are taking place. You sent an email on Saturday telling subscribers about your thoughts on Gordon, Ingram and a few others. Yet I don't feel this is enough. I had two back-to-back auctions, one on Saturday and one on Sunday. This year as in many, the auctions were during the all important third preseason weekend. Yet I'm always drafting using your ranks after the second preseason games. I do my best to follow the games, but that is why I pay you to tell me who is rising and falling and keep me up to date with the latest. Daily cheatsheet updates for major risers and fallers during the all-important third preseason weekend and perhaps leading up to the season kick-off as rosters and depth charts solidify. An email blast with some thoughts on the previous night's games, and who is rising and falling on your board. So waking up on Monday I find that guys that I targeted in both leagues like Terrance West (12 spots) and Corey Coleman (28!) have dropped significantly in your rankings. So it looks like I have some dead space on my teams and missed out on rostering better backups. Knowing your thoughts prior to my auctions would have helped tremendously. I'm especially frustrated about Coleman who went from potential breakout to "very ordinary." I feel like you do offer superior analysis, but I'm getting it too late. Please consider more frequent updates during these last few weeks of preseason!
LYLE CHRIS (USA)
Speed is awesome. Ideally we would have 8-10 super geniuses who can be trusted, and all would have access to our player projections, making changes in real time. Josh Gordon catches 2 long balls, and he moves up on the board (with Coleman moving down) before that game even reaches halftime. That’s the long-range goal. But we’re not there yet. Right now we’ve got the board being completely rebuilt each Sunday night, then audited, checked and re-stacked for every Thursday. For the Sunday night version, the changes are based primarily on how the offense looked in its game – the entire offense as a group is moving up or down (usually slightly) and there’s some reallocation of production to individual players. For the Thursday product, it includes a lengthy auditing process, where I’m going down each list and comparing names, making minor shifts here and there (and re-stacking the baselines). And while we’re in this key fantasy period, if there’s a critical, noteworthy fantasy development, we will address it in some fashion. As for Corey Coleman specifically, I have never made any secret of my tendency to be aggressive with picks. That’s the way I’m wired. I loved him coming out of Baylor. Loved the playmaking and explosiveness I saw there. And I read reports coming out of camp suggesting he kept running through the defense for long touchdowns. So my expectation was we could be looking at another Steve Smith or Brandin Cooks, and I wanted to get in on that. But Josh Gordon in that Bucs game showed that he’s still very much an elite receiver. Terrelle Pryor also looks surprisingly good, and Gary Barnidge is still very much a part of that offense. At Tampa Bay, it seemed to me like Coleman will be primarily a slot receiver, and that he’ll be catching a few balls and not necessarily doing a whole bunch with them. Reminded me of Tavon Austin. If you back it up a few years, you’ll see that I was high on Austin (when he was a rookie) in May-June-July, then soured on him when I saw how they were using him in their preseason games. Guys go flying up and down draft boards, especially in late August. We can try and improve our speed, but that’s definitely always going to be the way it is.
Question 7
Do you think Tyler Ervin is better insurance on Lamar Miller or Alfred Blue? I have Rashad Jennings and considered dropping Alfred Blue for Paul Perkins or to get Ervin. Thoughts on Ervin, Blue or Perkins?
Jay Monahan (Cincinnati, OH)
I don’t think Perkins will step on the field this year. Not ready. With Ervin, I think you’re looking at Sproles/Riddick/Vereen guy. He will probably return both kickoffs and punts and play on third downs. But if Miller gets hurt, I believe they will leave Ervin in that same role and plug in Blue as their replacement starter.
Question 8
Had a draft in a 10-team standard scoring league last week. I was pretty happy when I got DeVante Parker very late in the draft based on the end of last year. But after the last two preseason games, it looks like Stills might be the sleeper on that team. I also saw you dropped Parker behind Stills in rankings. Stills is still available in my league. Should I drop Parker for Stills? Or should I see how the season starts?
Anthony Giomundo (Tonawanda, NY)
Parker is a physically talented guy. He had a string of nice games at the end of last year, and there’s a reason they selected him with the 14th pick of the draft. But in these last two preseason games, Stills has looked a lot better. He seems to have a much better idea of what he’s doing. That’s why I made the switch, moving Stills ahead of Parker. It’s possible that in two weeks or two months, some kind of light will go on for Parker and he’ll start outperforming Stills. But right now – today – I would rather have Stills on my team.
Question 9
As a Packer fan, I feel that it's important to note that you've used the term "train wreck" to describe the Bears for two years in a row now! Which is great! But I guess this needs to contain a question, so let's just go with. Which Bear has the best fantasy football value this year, considering where we can draft him? Thanks!
Ryan Peterson (Phoenix, AZ)
If the price is right, I will select Jeremy Langford. I think he’s been working hard on his game and is a better back now than he was a year ago. I just wish there was more around him.
Question 10
Long-time subscriber, and thankful for all of the excellent advice over the years. Curious in regard to the custom rankings vs. your regular cheat sheet. In the custom RTS PPR system, for instance, many of the player rankings by position are different from the cheat sheet PPR ranking by position. I understand that RTS uses only two wide receivers plus a flex, but shouldn't the order of wide receivers be the same? Julio Jones and Keenan Allen for instance vary greatly.
MIKE KOCIS (Jefferson Hills, PA)
Thanks for pointing this out. We mangled the scoring system for RealTime Sports. The yardage figures were wrong, and players weren’t being credited for receptions. It’s been fixed now, and I think you’ll see Julio Jones and Keenan Allen up where you would expect them.
Question 11
I have been loyally using your services for the past 10 years, and have been the king of my fantasy leagues. Last year was not as kind to me, but I still managed money in 3 of my pools. I am in a PPR league. We award 6 points for TDs passes, reception, and rushing. We also award half point per completion. Who should I protect: Bortles, Decker, or Langford.
Tony Falvo (Toronto, ON)
You’re really supercharging the quarterback position, with the 6-point touchdown passes and the completions bonuses. Average pass completion is about 11 yards, or roughly 14 points for a 300-yard passing game. But there are a lot of good quarterbacks out there, and my numbers suggest you’ll be better off protecting Decker.
Question 12
I agree with you that paying the 6th- or 7th-round price for Williams is tough, but what if you buy LeVeon Bell early - his per game output from week 4 on may be the best among all RBs - and then buy Blount at the much cheaper price he's going for (Round 10 or 11?) on the theory that the Pats will scheme run heavy the first 4 games to protect Garoppolo? I know trying to predict Wild Bill is risky, but having Bell for most of a season and the playoffs is pretty tempting. Even if you think this is a bad idea, I'd be curious to hear your thoughts on the NE backfield and Blount in particular. He seems generally overlooked and undervalued. As always, you are indispensable to my fantasy draft/auction preparations!
L.B. GRAHAM (Kingsville, MD)
I have no problems with Bell. I was a dollar short of owning him in our auction Monday night. But if you go that route – as you point out – you need not be locked in on DeAngelo Williams. There are plenty of other backs out there who can start in those first four games. I like LeGarrette Blount. He’ll be their power runner. The Patriots should score about 16 rushing touchdowns, and that should put him in the mix for double-digit touchdowns. He’s not a factor in the passing game, and he’s not a full-time player. In the last 17 games he’s started, he’s averaged 58 rushing and 4 receiving yards, with 10 TDs. The Patriots are playing Arizona, Houston and Buffalo in the first four weeks, and those aren’t the kind of defenses that are easily bludgeoned with a Blount-style running game. I think he’s best games will come later in the year, when Brady is back and the schedule is more favorable.
Question 13
Long-time reader and member and you and your team have provided great insight in the past. One thing I'm looking for and may have missed is your ranking of offensive lines. This would be a great help in determining tiebreakers on who we are choosing. Please keep up providing us the great insight that clearly comes from a lot of research and not just spinning other "experts" rankings. Love that you have an opinion and you give us the "why".
BILL PETERS (Roselle, IL)
Andy Richardson is our offensive line guy. He’s got a file that he’s constantly updating as guys get hurt and lineups change. He’s got the units ranked 1 thru 32. His latest OL rankings will appear on Saturday morning on the website.
Question 14
In PPR leagues, it seems like WR are being over valued, allowing RB to fall deeper in the draft. Does it become beneficial to draft a first round RB and/or even double RB in the first two rounds? I know you don't like reaching for players but are you at a disadvantage by drafting double RB and waiting on WR, even if that is what the ranking dictate? Are we "happy" to have WR15 to WR20 as our team's number 1 WR?
dan renzi (Moorestown, NJ)
I think you just go off the numbers. You project what you think each player will do. After that, you work in the supply/demand dynamics, and you see what the computer tells you. In PPR, the correct course is usually to emphasize wide receivers early.
Question 15
I am in a league where scoring is heavily predicated on distance per TD. QBs are far and away the highest scorers every year (Eli led all scorers last year). Do you have any potential sleeper QBs for this format?
BRIAN BOUCHER (Glen Mills, PA)
In that style of a format, the one quarterback who really jumps out is Robert Griffin III. Not saying he’ll be a top-15 quarterback or even still be healthy in October, but he’s the one guy where I’m very confident that a huge portion of his touchdown passes will come from long range. In each of the first two exhibitions, he completed passes over 40 yards to Terrelle Pryor. In the game at Tampa Bay, he connected on 43- and 44-yard bombs to Josh Gordon.
Question 16
I love your analysis. You helped me win my league last year. My question: I have the #1 overall pick this year in a 12-team standard league. I have been offered the #11 and #14 picks for my first-round pick and 4th round pick. Would you take this deal?
Ryan Cetnarowski (Pittsburgh, PA)
Players No. 1 and 48 are worth 174 combined (adjusted) points. If you want to figure you might get a player who’s about a round better with that four-round pick, then call it 180 points. Players Nos. 11 and 14 are worth 83 and 80 points, for a combined 163. You would probably get players ranked a few spots higher, allowing you to pick up a few extra points, but the pair isn’t going to be as valuable (on paper) as what you are giving up.
Question 17
Long, long time customer and I love your analysis and pre-season updates. I am in a 10-team league where we draft 14 position players. For my 5th or 6th RB or WR, I would like to draft someone with big upside if something breaks there way as opposed to someone safe who can get you a few points each week.
Randy Newland (Villa Hills, KY)
Agreed. Handcuff running backs, I think, are the guys to target. Tevin Coleman, Alfred Morris, Charles Sims III, Spencer Ware, DeAngelo Williams, Kenjon Barner.
Question 18
Is there a way to incorporate IDP's into a custom scoring system? I am in a league where we do an auction of not only offensive players, but IDP's (no team defense / special teams). I am curious how much of my auction budget to allot for IDP's.
Ian MacEwen (Akron, OH)
We don’t have the IDP tied into the regular offensive guys yet. Perhaps in the future. For the meantime, I suggest you look at the last few years of your auction. Who were the best IDP who were sold for the $1.00 minimum (or who weren’t even chosen at all)? That’s the starting spot. If you’re paying more than the minimum for any defensive players, it should be because you believe they’ll be better than those guys. Andy has put together stat projections for all of the defensive players. They are on the fourth sheet of the player projection file that comes out (in Excel format) each week. If you compare Andy’s player projections against what you believe to be what you can get for the $1 minimum, you should get an idea of the worth of these IDP.
Question 19
Crunch time decisions for my keeper league team. My QB choices are either Prescott or Flacco or Fitzpatrick. I am leaning toward Prescott despite his inexperience. For tight end my choices are either Jesse James or Ertz or Barnidge. I am leaning toward James based on the better offense though not sure about Ladarious Green status.
HOWIE FISHMAN (Hermosa Beach, CA)
If we’re looking primarily at 2016, then I think Fitzpatrick and Barnidge are your guys. If you have an eye on making these same decisions a year from now, then you can start thinking more seriously about Prescott and James.
Question 20
Great stuff as always. Keeper question for you. I’m in a 10-team league. I have Lacy, Freeman, and Lamar Miller. We can keep up to two players from last year. Would you go with one of those backs then see about a top-tier WR with the second pick or grab the two best out of that group then go for WR with the third? Thanks for any insight!
John Mulyk (Romeoville, IL)
Good running backs are hard to find. According to my numbers, if everyone was starting from scratch, Miller and Lacy would both be selected in the top 10. So that’s the route I’d take. I’d protect those guys and address the wide receiver position in the third and fourth rounds.
Question 21
Loyal customer of 10+ years and I'm looking for some keeper advice. I'm in a 10 team "PPR" league and I can keep up to 3 players. We start 1-QB, 2-RBs, 3-WRs, 1-TE, and a "Flex". Who would you keep from Cam Newton, Eddie Lacy, Brandon Marshall, Brandin Cooks, Keenan Allen, Jordy Nelson, Julian Edelman, and Jordan Reed?
Sergio Garcia (Lake Elsinore, CA)
Definitely Keenan Allen. He’ll catch 110-plus passes in San Diego’s offense. For the other two, I would go with Brandon Marshall and Eddie Lacy. Cooks, Reed and Newton aren’t far behind.
Question 22
I am currently thin at RB and have Mark Ingram in a 10-team standard league that gives extra points for length of TDs. I also currently have Tim Hightower as his handcuff. Is it worth it to keep Tim Hightower or would it be better to have C.J. Spiller or Theo Riddick?
ANDREW DAMIANI (Westfield, IN)
If you want somebody to play, Riddick is more valuable. If you are concerned about having someone if Ingram is injured, then I think you plug in Hightower at that point. Not, however, a particularly strong handcuff; he would be splitting time with Spiller.
Question 23
So your answer to this question in July was keep Palmer in the 4th but with Cooks looking good in GB I wonder if your answer will be the same. 16 team ppr all tds worth 6. QBs go much higher due to 6 pts and number of teams. I have 6th pick. I can keep tight end cooks in 11 or Palmer in the 4th. Do you still say keep Palmer in the 4th?
Vernon Jones (Rockville, MD)
You’re going to need a quarterback. With 16 teams and 6-point touchdown passes, there will be demand for that position. Carson Palmer has looked kind of shaky in the preseason, but he’s still the triggerman in one of the league’s seemingly elite offenses. He’s still got a good chance of throwing 30-plus touchdowns, making him a great fourth-round pick in your league. Cook is on the upswing, but I would have more confidence in my ability to find a tight end somewhere along the way.
Question 24
Been with you guys since '94. Eight total championships since then in a competitive league. THANK YOU! What do you think about this trade? I get Melvin Gordon and Devontae Booker and give up Moncrief and Terrance West. We are in a 12-team, 3-WR, 2-RB, 1-TE, no flex, three-quarter point per reception league. I have Beckham, Marshall, Landry, and Moncrief to rotate at wide along with Dorsett and Wheaton. My RBs are C.J Anderson, Ivory, Yeldon, C.Michael, West, and Coleman. I love the idea of having four stud receivers (bye weeks/injuries) as they are the big scorers in our league and you need three, so they are that much more valuable. And Marshall's hip and age are worrying me a bit. I realize I need some help at running back, and it would be nice to handcuff C.J. But I'm having real trouble pulling the trigger. According to your custom scoring application for our league, Moncrief and Landry are 12 and 13 ranked (in a pool of 36 "starters"). Gordon is 13th ranked (in a pool of 24 "starters"). Am I getting enough value? Should I make the trade? Or just run with Yeldon or Ivory?
Christopher KEPLER (Makawao, HI)
Probably best to just sit tight. Good to have the four wide receivers to work with. There are byes, injuries and poor matchups, and maybe one of these guys simply isn’t as good as you were expecting. It will work out. And I think you’ll be fine at running back. That Jacksonville tandem, I think, will be more productive than what people are expecting. T.J. Yeldon looks a lot better this year. And now doubt either Yeldon or Ivory will miss some games with injuries, making the other back particularly effective in those games. I will also be interested to see what Terrance West does the first few weeks of the season. Javorius Allen seems to be just a third-down back. Justin Forsett is old and undersized. Kenneth Dixon might be out until October. So wouldn’t surprise me if West gets a shot at the starting job early. Andy had first cut at the Ravens-Lions game and his takeaway (which you see in the Monday update) was that Dixon is the back who should eventually emerge in that backfield. Dixon played before West in that game. But I watched that one on Monday, and I thought West looked just as good. With Dixon, I saw him run through one gigantic hole early for a big game – the kind of hole where any back in the league would gain 10-15 yards. When West came in, I thought he looked just as good (maybe better), consistently moving the pile. He’s healthy, and he’s been with the team longer, giving him a better chance to learn the offense. I’m not promising West is a breakout star, but I think he makes a lot of sense as an end-of-bench guy to keep around for a few weeks. He might develop into something.