Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Can Matt Nagy return KC's offense to glory? Goal-line plungers. Adjusting settings for overall rankings. Spicing up your league. And more.
Question 1
Hi Ian - wondering how well Matt Nagy offenses have performed. It sure seems like he tanked Chicago and did the same upon his return to KC.
DEO GARLOCK (Raleigh, NC)
His offenses averaged 35 touchdowns in his four seasons in Chicago; 25 teams averaged at least 2 more touchdowns per season. He didn’t have good quarterbacking on any of those teams (Mitchell Trubisky’s first three seasons, followed by rookie-year Justin Fields). But Nagy hasn’t been able to get top-level production in Kansas City the last two years despite working with one of the best quarterbacks in the history of the game. KC’s offense the last two years has scored only 37 and 41 touchdowns, after scoring 53, 53 and 59 touchdowns the previous three seasons. Totaled, I think we’re looking at six seasons, and Nagy’s offenses haven’t outperformed expectations in any of them. That makes it seem unlikely KC will be flipping the switching, returning to the mid-50s in touchdowns.
Question 2
Keep a player at the round you drafted them for up to 3 years deducting a round each year in a 12 team. 6 point all TD's and 5 bonus points on 40+ yard TD's. Last year I drafted Joe Burrow in the 6th round and Courtland Sutton in the 9th, thus I could keep Burrow in the 5th then 4th, and 3rd rounds for 3 more years or Sutton in the 8th, 7th, and 6th. I love me some Joe Burrow in the 5th but does he provide enough value to take over an 8th round Courtland Sutton? I feel like Sutton is one of the last quality # 1 receivers that will get peppered with targets.
Brett Higgins (Macomb, MI)
Sutton in his final 10 games last year averaged top-10 receiving numbers – 60 catches for 804 yards and 6 TDs in those 10. But I don’t have a lot of confidence it will last for long. He’ll be 30 in October. With an eye on 6 points per touchdown pass, I would be more inclined to bring back Burrow, hoping he can be something similar to last year. I think he’s got a decent shot at 40-plus touchdowns, and he threw 9 from 40-plus yards last year.
Question 3
I use your customized rankings and I have our league's scoring system entered in - the part I am not sure about is the Overall rankings which I use to help me draft that include all positions in one list. I see at the bottom of the customization it has a place for auction leagues and adjusting supply/demand parameters. We do not have an auction league but it seems this could still help me?
John Buchholz (Orlando, FL)
You definitely want to tap into this area of the custom rankings (the auction set-up). There are the questions about how many players would go for more than the $1 minimum, which I will admit can be difficult to get a handle on for many readers (especially those who’ve never been in an auction). Think of it instead this way. If your draft is 15 rounds, how many of each position do you think would be picked in the first 10 rounds? Those are the guys we care about. Those last five rounds, the picks will be dictated in part by your team needs, and a lot of those guys will wind up being cut anyway, as you pivot to players picked up off the waiver wire. Let’s set a baseline at each position by looking at players selected about two thirds of the way through the draft. After you take a few moments to set those datapoints, the website will then spit out rankings based on how much better the top players are, relative to those 10th-round guys. (It will look at how much more production you can expect if you use an early-round pick at each position, rather than simply picking one in the 10th round).
Question 4
When I was little, my dad made a fantasy football living off of the banger back. We're talking guys like Pete "Where's The Beef" Johnson, Gerald Riggs, Larry Kinnebrew, and even Ron Davenport. Would you say that there are any guys that would fit that mold in today's NFL? You know ... 3 carries, 4 yards, 3 TDs ... Guys like that!
Roland Deschain (IL)
Jordan Mason (pictured), perhaps. I think the Vikings traded for him thinking he could handle some of their physical running inside, easing the load on older, smaller Aaron Jones. They’ve improved their OL. Roschon Johnson was used almost exclusively as a goal-line back last year. He scored 6 TDs despite running for only 150 yards. I wouldn’t put him up with those backs from the ‘80s, but he’s playing now for a coach who’s put together offenses that have scored a lot of rushing touchdowns – 23, 27 and 29 the last three years in Detroit. The Bears are currently planning to start D’Andre Swift (who’s not a banger at all), so I will be keeping an eye on Roschon Johnson in camp. In the mock draft I did last week, Jaylen Wright was my final pick; Roschon Johnson was the other guy I was thinking about. But the game has changed. Since the merger, 42 backs have scored 8-plus rushing touchdowns while averaging less than 50 yards per touchdown. Only one of those guys comes from the last 10 years: Kareem Hunt (getting the goal-line touches for the Browns two years ago). Only nine others from the last 20 years (tagged with dots).
GOAL-LINE PLUNGERS | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Yds/TD |
1979 | Hank Bauer, S.D. | 22 | 28 | 1.3 | 8 | 3.5 |
2002 | Zack Crockett, Oak. | 40 | 118 | 3.0 | 8 | 14.8 |
1984 | Pete Johnson, 2TM | 87 | 205 | 2.4 | 12 | 17.1 |
1975 | Don McCauley, Balt. | 60 | 196 | 3.3 | 10 | 19.6 |
1985 | Tony Paige, NYJ | 55 | 158 | 2.9 | 8 | 19.8 |
2008 | • T.J. Duckett, Sea. | 62 | 172 | 2.8 | 8 | 21.5 |
1999 | Mario Bates, Ari. | 72 | 202 | 2.8 | 9 | 22.4 |
1991 | Gerald Riggs, Was. | 78 | 248 | 3.2 | 11 | 22.5 |
1976 | Don McCauley, Balt. | 69 | 227 | 3.3 | 9 | 25.2 |
1988 | Ottis Anderson, NYG | 65 | 208 | 3.2 | 8 | 26.0 |
1996 | Ki-Jana Carter, Cin. | 91 | 264 | 2.9 | 8 | 33.0 |
1985 | Ron Davenport, Mia. | 98 | 370 | 3.8 | 11 | 33.6 |
1974 | Don Nottingham, Mia. | 66 | 273 | 4.1 | 8 | 34.1 |
1988 | Robb Riddick, Buff. | 111 | 438 | 4.0 | 12 | 36.5 |
1974 | Jon Keyworth, Den. | 81 | 374 | 4.6 | 10 | 37.4 |
2002 | Moe Williams, Min. | 84 | 414 | 4.9 | 11 | 37.6 |
1978 | Hank Bauer, S.D. | 85 | 304 | 3.6 | 8 | 38.0 |
1987 | Johnny Hector, NYJ | 111 | 435 | 3.9 | 11 | 39.5 |
1981 | Billy Jackson, K.C. | 111 | 398 | 3.6 | 10 | 39.8 |
2008 | • Tim Hightower, Ari. | 143 | 399 | 2.8 | 10 | 39.9 |
2005 | • Jerome Bettis, Pitt. | 110 | 368 | 3.4 | 9 | 40.9 |
1970 | Clint Jones, Min. | 120 | 369 | 3.1 | 9 | 41.0 |
2002 | James Mungro, Ind. | 97 | 336 | 3.5 | 8 | 42.0 |
1975 | Pete Banaszak, Oak. | 187 | 672 | 3.6 | 16 | 42.0 |
2009 | • Willis McGahee, Balt. | 109 | 544 | 5.0 | 12 | 45.3 |
2023 | Kareem Hunt, Cle. | 135 | 411 | 3.0 | 9 | 45.7 |
2005 | • Stephen Davis, Car. | 180 | 549 | 3.1 | 12 | 45.8 |
1997 | Marcus Allen, K.C. | 124 | 505 | 4.1 | 11 | 45.9 |
1988 | Lorenzo Hampton, Mia. | 117 | 414 | 3.5 | 9 | 46.0 |
2006 | • Marion Barber, Dall. | 135 | 654 | 4.8 | 14 | 46.7 |
1975 | Stan Fritts, Cin. | 94 | 375 | 4.0 | 8 | 46.9 |
2006 | • Brandon Jacobs, NYG | 96 | 423 | 4.4 | 9 | 47.0 |
1986 | Stanley Wilson, Cin. | 68 | 379 | 5.6 | 8 | 47.4 |
2005 | • T.J. Duckett, Atl. | 121 | 380 | 3.1 | 8 | 47.5 |
1983 | Ted Brown, Min. | 120 | 476 | 4.0 | 10 | 47.6 |
1985 | Tim Spencer, S.D. | 124 | 478 | 3.9 | 10 | 47.8 |
2012 | • Andre Brown, NYG | 73 | 385 | 5.3 | 8 | 48.1 |
1984 | Stump Mitchell, St.L. | 81 | 434 | 5.4 | 9 | 48.2 |
1973 | Eddie Ray, Atl. | 96 | 434 | 4.5 | 9 | 48.2 |
1979 | Wayne Morris, St.L. | 106 | 387 | 3.7 | 8 | 48.4 |
2002 | Stacey Mack, Jac. | 98 | 436 | 4.5 | 9 | 48.4 |
1972 | Emerson Boozer, NYJ | 120 | 549 | 4.6 | 11 | 49.9 |
Question 5
For the last 10 years during my auctions I've printed off the auction values customized for each league and then used a yellow highlighter and pen to cross off players as they are drafted. Can you recommend an app that can import your data and give me all of the features that are common on the newest draft apps?
Robert Lindmeier (Oregon, WI)
I haven’t done an auction with an app. For the 40-year-old DFL, it’s an in-person affair; I use a clipboard with a printout. I’ve done a few online, but that’s with a keyboard and a large screen. I would be scared to try to manage that much info on a phone. MyFantasyLeague and ESPN have decent auction websites. I’ll be auctioning on Thursday night on Sleeper.com. I haven’t used that one yet, but Ben Prator says it’s good. That’s a mock draft for FantasyIndex.com. I believe they’re still looking for a couple of team owners for that one; if interested, put it in the comments section (draft starts at 8 pm EDT this Thursday).
Question 6
My weak keeper team: Adams, Pacheco, Rice, Shakir, Reed, Benson, Engram. Keep 2. I'm thinking Rice will be top-10 guy for several years (after suspension) since he is young, talented and on great team. Question 2: Will Andy be doing his bets/prop speculations package again and when can one purchase it? Will there be any "season-long" "team total wins" etc. type bets speculated upon?
Jeff Zwiers (Bellingham, WA)
On the keeper front, I’d go with Davante Adams. He’s old, of course, but I’m pretty sure he’ll post top-20 receiving numbers. We’ll figure out 2026 next year. “Index Bets” can be ordered in the store section of the website. For an over-under team, I will go with the 49ers under 10.5 wins. They lost a ton of players in the offseason, and three of their key guys are older players who tend to get hurt (McCaffrey, Kittle, Trent Wiliams). Typically on over-unders, the better values are on the unders. (If you add up the totals for all 32 teams, it often comes out to about 5 wins above what is mathematically possible). Lions under 10.5 makes some sense, given the division. Probably Seahawks under 8.5.
Question 7
Admittedly we are a long way out and i don't know my draft position but just starting to formulate strategies in my 2QB league where 14 QBs usually go in the first 28 picks. If I miss out on a top 4 pick I'm contemplating Puka in the first and Nico in the second. I feel like in PPR I just can accumulate more points with possibly two top 5 WRs and maybe settle for Chase Brown and Kaleb Johnson as my top 2 RB. Unless I get a very lucky completely healthy RB in the top two rounds seems like the math favors this. Thoughts?
Tavis Medrano (Arcadia, CA)
I’m not a big Kaleb Johnson fan. I understand that the ADP suggests he’ll go a couple rounds earlier than Jaylen Warren, but I think Warren will finish with better numbers. He’s been there for a few years, and I expect Warren will be dramatically better in passing situations. And Mike Tomlin has been a coach who’s loyal to veterans. Najee Harris, as an example, started every game the last four years. There were spells where Warren was clearly outperforming Harris, but they stuck with Harris as their starter. Now, I think, Warren is the No. 1 and Johnson is the No. 2, looking to prove he deserves more playing time. Warren is in a contract year, and I expect he’ll play well. Heading into drafts, I’m thinking there’s a good chance I’ll be picking up Warren shortly after Johnson is selected.
Question 8
8 team keeper league. We start 2 QBs, 2RBs, and 4WR/TEs. I'm set with my keepers, Nix in the 9th, Bowers in the 10th, and McCarthy, who I drafted with my 15th pick last year, and carried all season in order to keep him as a 13th Rounder. I have the 2nd pick. When I run the custom points for my league, my team comes out 50 points higher on the season if I take Lamar after the likely first overall pick, Chase, and utilize McCarthy as a backup/streamer/bye week QB. Do you recommend I do that, or should I disregard the total season points a QB like Jackson or Burrows projects, roll with my two QB keepers, pick up a 3rd QB after I complete my starters, and take a non QB, like Jefferson or Bijan, with the second pick?
Steven Schipper (Brampton, ON)
I drafted Joe Burrow with the last pick of the second round (24th overall) in a draft last week, and it turned out that I could have done better by instead picking Josh Jacobs and picking a quarterback like Purdy, Nix or Dak 10 rounds later. Now, your league is different in that each is starting two quarterbacks, but there are only eight teams. So my general lean (without carefully looking at any numbers) would be to select Bijan, holding off on the third quarterback until a later round. Nix and McCarthy are both second-year guys, so I would want that third quarterback to be more than an afterthought – would be good to add another that you think has a good chance at top-15 numbers.
Question 9
How do I overcome fantasy burnout? I manage two leagues, and last year, thanks to FI, I finished the regular season in 1st place in both - both in terms of record and points for. I was ecstatic for the post-season. Then I proceed to get bounced from the playoffs in the first round in both leagues. All that hard work season-long to seemingly have no shot. I'm over it. How do I re-motivate for the season ahead?
Michael Massad (Dallas, TX)
Maybe focus more on than just wins and losses. Show up at your draft with a custom-designed shirt, hat or jersey, with your team’s logo. As a commissioner, maybe at a new dimension to your league –an award for the highest- or lowest-scoring team, or maybe try an auction or even drauction rather than a traditional draft. In our league, we run a “Survivor” competition as an extra wrinkle, with the low scoring eliminated each week. Our league highlight last year involved one of the league’s owners each week using AI to create artwork of the team that got eliminated.
Question 10
12 team league. We did our draft order based off the Kentucky derby. I had Citizen Bull. Needless to say I’ll be picking anywhere between 10-12. I can keep A.J. Brown in the first or James Cook in the 3rd. Cook or Brown? What do you think? I also have Tyrone Tracy in the 10th but there’s no value keeping him there.
RON BEST (Church Point, LA)
Isn’t Tracy the keeper? He’ll be picked long before the 10th. If Cam Skattebo is too slow to be much of a factor at the pro level, Tracy might be a top-20 back. The only other option, I think, is Cook. He’s about as good as Brown, and you’re getting him two rounds later.
Question 11
I'm in a 10-team league that starts 2 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WR-TE and 1 Flex. Are RBs considerably more valuable than receivers in this format vs. a more typical 2 RBs / 3 receivers / 1 Flex format? Applying what I think accounts for this format in FFI's custom rankings, Chase is the top non-QB and then there are 12 running backs ranked ahead of the #2-ranked receiver (Nabors). This seems awfully low. Is this an expected result or am I not capturing my league's format correctly in the custom rankings?
Greg Klingaman (AMSTERDAM )
It seems like you’re more interested in the RB-WR-TE dynamics, rather than the QB position. Consider the top 50 stat producers who come from those positions. In PPR, that’s 30 WR, 17 RB and 3 TE. In standard, 24 WR, 26 RB and no TE. With injuries and bye weeks, you may prefer to look at about 7 players per team – 70 guys. That would be (for PPR) 37 WR, 28 RB and 5 TD. For standard, the top 70 would include 32 WR, 34 RB and 3 TE. Things do fall off more quickly at RB than at WR, which is why you see those RBs dominating the early option. Consider, as an example, the difference between the 10th player and the 50th player at each position (using our stat projections). In PPR scoring, the 50th WR is 99 points out of the top 10, while the 50th RB is 146 points out. In standard scoring, it’s similar (71 points out for the 50th WR, versus 124 points for the 50th RB). You can find some placeholder receivers late, but at RB, you’re left taking backups, thinking they’ll probably start some games at some point.
Question 12
I’ve noticed in auction leagues that sometimes when you nominate a player, others will bid them up because they know you want them. Is it acceptable to “collude” with another owner to call out the names that the other owner targets to conceal that we really want them? Is everything fair in love, war, and fantasy football?
James Costello (Portland, ME)
Gamesmanship. If you fear others are intentionally bidding up your players, probably best to toss out some players that you have no real interest in, allowing things to calm down.
Question 13
I am in a 12-team keeper league (3 keepers, 3-year max, no penalty). My choices for my 3 keepers include Joe Burrow (3rd year), Christian McCaffery (2nd), Chuba Hubbard (2nd), Malik Nabers (2nd) or Tee Higgins (3rd). Which 3 should I keep?
Tim Schadelbauer (Farmingville, NY)
Burrow, McCaffrey and Nabers look like your guys, at least for now. If McCaffrey has any kind of health issue, you can starting weighing the pros and cons of the other two. The 49ers keep saying McCaffrey is healthy and in tip-top shape, so I’d be inclined for now to keep him around, hoping he’s one of the top few running backs.