Let’s take another stab at Strength of Schedule. Not based on what happened last year (too old) and not based on what’s happened so far (not enough). But built upon the premise of how good we thing these teams are.
The 32 teams, if they were all playing average schedules, I think would finish with records about like this …
IAN'S POWER RANKINGS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Carolina | 14 | 2 | 0 | .875 |
New England | 14 | 2 | 0 | .875 |
Pittsburgh | 11 | 4 | 1 | .719 |
Arizona | 11 | 4 | 1 | .719 |
Seattle | 11 | 4 | 1 | .719 |
Denver | 11 | 5 | 0 | .688 |
Green Bay | 10 | 5 | 1 | .656 |
Cincinnati | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
NY Giants | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
NY Jets | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
Houston | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
Minnesota | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Kansas City | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Dallas | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
Baltimore | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
Atlanta | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
Oakland | 7 | 8 | 1 | .469 |
Philadelphia | 7 | 8 | 1 | .469 |
Tampa Bay | 7 | 8 | 1 | .469 |
Washington | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
Miami | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 |
New Orleans | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 |
Tennessee | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 |
San Diego | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 |
Jacksonville | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 |
Indianapolis | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 |
Detroit | 5 | 10 | 1 | .344 |
Buffalo | 5 | 10 | 1 | .344 |
Los Angeles | 5 | 11 | 0 | .313 |
San Francisco | 4 | 12 | 0 | .250 |
Chicago | 3 | 13 | 0 | .188 |
Cleveland | 2 | 14 | 0 | .125 |
If we then take those win-loss records and plug them into the upcoming schedule, we get an idea of who’s going to be helped and hurt by scheduling.
I’m leaving out Weeks 1-2 (they’re over and done with). And I’m leaving out Week 17 (it doesn’t count for fantasy purposes in most leagues).
So for just Weeks 4-16, the Titans, Lions, Packers and Dolphins project to play the easiest schedules.
The Falcons, Eagles, Seahawks and Saints should play the hardest schedules.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 3-16) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Tennessee | 87 | 117 | 4 | .428 |
Detroit | 91 | 112 | 5 | .450 |
Green Bay | 91 | 111 | 6 | .452 |
Miami | 90 | 110 | 8 | .452 |
NY Giants | 91 | 109 | 8 | .457 |
Dallas | 91 | 109 | 8 | .457 |
Chicago | 92 | 109 | 7 | .459 |
Jacksonville | 93 | 109 | 6 | .462 |
Tampa Bay | 98 | 107 | 3 | .478 |
Arizona | 99 | 104 | 5 | .488 |
Carolina | 100 | 104 | 4 | .490 |
San Diego | 100 | 103 | 5 | .493 |
New England | 98 | 101 | 9 | .493 |
Houston | 101 | 103 | 4 | .495 |
Indianapolis | 100 | 102 | 6 | .495 |
Cincinnati | 99 | 101 | 8 | .495 |
Oakland | 102 | 102 | 4 | .500 |
Denver | 102 | 102 | 4 | .500 |
Minnesota | 100 | 100 | 8 | .500 |
Pittsburgh | 100 | 99 | 9 | .502 |
Washington | 102 | 97 | 9 | .512 |
San Francisco | 104 | 96 | 8 | .519 |
Buffalo | 106 | 95 | 7 | .526 |
NY Jets | 107 | 95 | 6 | .529 |
Baltimore | 106 | 93 | 9 | .531 |
Kansas City | 109 | 94 | 5 | .536 |
Cleveland | 107 | 92 | 9 | .536 |
Los Angeles | 109 | 91 | 8 | .543 |
New Orleans | 112 | 91 | 5 | .550 |
Seattle | 111 | 90 | 7 | .550 |
Philadelphia | 111 | 88 | 9 | .555 |
Atlanta | 115 | 88 | 5 | .565 |
—Ian Allan