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Power rankings

Ian ranks the teams 1 thru 32

A couple of readers have asked about the forecast of all 256 regular season games. I haven’t had a chance to do that yet. I will post that on Wednesday or Thursday (I’m working on the Week 1 forecasts right now). But I can offer a general sense of what I think of each team. We’ve seen the preseason games, tracked the developments and made note of the various injuries and roster cuts.

In a rough sense (setting schedules aside) I would order the 32 teams this way:

IAN'S POWER RANKINGS
TeamWLTPct
Carolina1240.750
New England1141.719
Seattle1150.688
Houston1051.656
Green Bay1051.656
Arizona1051.656
Washington1060.625
Pittsburgh961.594
Denver961.594
Cincinnati961.594
Minnesota970.563
Kansas City970.563
Dallas970.563
Baltimore970.563
Oakland871.531
San Diego880.500
Jacksonville880.500
Tennessee790.438
Tampa Bay790.438
NY Jets790.438
NY Giants790.438
New Orleans790.438
Indianapolis790.438
Buffalo790.438
Miami691.406
Detroit691.406
Atlanta691.406
Los Angeles6100.375
Chicago4111.281
San Francisco4120.250
Philadelphia4120.250
Cleveland4120.250

We can then take those wins and losses, plug them in the 2016 schedule, and make a guess at which team might be affected by strength of schedule. According to my mix of fact and fiction, Dallas, Seattle, Washington and Green Bay will play the easiest schedules.

The Raiders, 49ers, Browns and Broncos, I think, will play the hardest schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 1-17)
TeamWinLossTiePct
Dallas1131385.451
Seattle1171345.467
Washington1171345.467
Green Bay1171336.469
NY Giants1191325.475
Miami1201315.479
Arizona1221322.480
Pittsburgh1211314.480
Detroit1211305.482
Baltimore1211287.486
New England1211287.486
Tennessee1201279.486
Chicago1231285.490
Carolina1241275.494
Cincinnati1241266.496
Minnesota1241248.500
New Orleans1271245.506
NY Jets1261237.506
San Diego1261237.506
Buffalo1261228.508
Houston1271227.510
Jacksonville1271227.510
Tampa Bay1281226.512
Philadelphia1291216.516
Atlanta1311214.520
Los Angeles1301206.520
Indianapolis1291198.520
Kansas City1311178.527
Denver1341166.535
Cleveland1341157.537
San Francisco1351156.539
Oakland1361155.541

Most fantasy leagues, of course, don’t use Week 17, so we can also re-work the numbers with those games removed. If you go that route, the Dolphins and Giants move up into a tie for first with the Cowboys. The bottom 4 teams are the same.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 1-16)
TeamWinLossTiePct
Miami1091274.463
Dallas1091265.465
NY Giants1091265.465
Washington1101255.469
Detroit1111254.471
Green Bay1111245.473
Tennessee1101228.475
Baltimore1121226.479
Seattle1131225.481
Chicago1141215.485
Arizona1161222.488
New England1151196.492
Cincinnati1151196.492
Pittsburgh1171194.496
Tampa Bay1161186.496
Carolina1171185.498
San Diego1171167.502
NY Jets1191147.510
Los Angeles1201155.510
New Orleans1211154.513
Buffalo1191138.513
Philadelphia1201146.513
Minnesota1201137.515
Houston1201137.515
Jacksonville1201137.515
Indianapolis1211118.521
Atlanta1241124.525
Kansas City1231098.529
San Francisco1241106.529
Cleveland1251096.533
Denver1261095.535
Oakland1271094.538

As usual with this kind of thing, be sure to let me know where you think I've gone wrong. That is, which projected win-loss record is the most different from what you would expect?

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index