San Diego beat Denver 21-13 on Thursday night, which may remind some of the notion that Thursday games are lower scoring. Should fantasy leaguers avoid using players in these games? Ian Allan explores.
San Diego beat Denver 21-13 on Thursday night, which may remind some of the notion that Thursday games are lower scoring. Should fantasy leaguers avoid using players in these games?
The driver in these games, I am certain, isn’t that the games are played on Thursday. The key factor is that they are division games. Offenses have less success when competing against an opponent that is familiar with its scheme and personnel. Doesn’t matter if the game is played on Thursday, Friday, Saturday or Sunday.
This can be confirmed by looking at the historical numbers.
Since the NFL started these Thursday night games, there have been 69 meetings between division opponents. Those games have averaged 41.7 points. There have been 49 games outside the division. They have averaged 46.5 points. Almost 5 points per game, which is very significant.
Furthermore, we can look at the other meetings between these divisional teams. That is, when San Diego and Denver meet again later in the year, we can measure the two games against each other. You’ve got the same teams with the same players meeting in the same year. The only difference is that one game was played on Thursday.
For the 69 completed rematches (some of which were “prematches”, played before the Thursday game), the average total points were 41.2. So the non-Thursday games were actually lower scoring than the Thursday games.
Of the 69 games, it’s split almost 50-50 on which ones were higher scoring – 34 Thursday games were higher scoring, versus 33 of the road games. (In two cases, the scores were the same.)
Here are the 69 such games. For each matchup I have put a black ball by the larger of the two scores.
Bottom line: give no thought to games being played on Thursday. Far more important is the matchup itself.
| THURSDAY NIGHT DIVISIONAL GAMES | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Thursday Game | Points | Other |
| 2006 | San Francisco 24, at Seattle 14 | • 38 | 34 |
| 2006 | at Kansas City 19, Denver 10 | • 29 | 15 |
| 2006 | at Pittsburgh 27, Cleveland 7 | 34 | • 44 |
| 2006 | at Cincinnati 13, Baltimore 7 | 20 | • 46 |
| 2006 | at Green Bay 9, Minnesota 7 | 16 | • 40 |
| 2007 | Green Bay 37, at Detroit 26 | • 63 | 47 |
| 2008 | NY Jets 34, at New England 31 | • 65 | 29 |
| 2008 | Indianapolis 31, at Jacksonville 24 | • 55 | 44 |
| 2008 | at San Diego 34, Oakland 7 | 41 | • 46 |
| 2008 | at Pittsburgh 27, Cincinnati 10 | 37 | • 48 |
| 2009 | Indianapolis 35, at Jacksonville 31 | • 66 | 26 |
| 2009 | Green Bay 34, at Detroit 12 | • 46 | 26 |
| 2009 | NY Jets 19, at Buffalo 13 | • 32 | 29 |
| 2009 | at Cleveland 13, Pittsburgh 6 | 19 | • 41 |
| 2010 | Indianapolis 30, at Tennessee 28 | • 58 | 43 |
| 2011 | Green Bay 27, at Detroit 15 | 42 | • 86 |
| 2011 | Oakland 24, at San Diego 17 | 41 | • 64 |
| 2011 | at Indianapolis 19, Houston 16 | 35 | • 41 |
| 2011 | at Pittsburgh 14, Cleveland 3 | 17 | • 22 |
| 2012 | Washington 38, at Dallas 31 | • 69 | 46 |
| 2012 | New England 49, at NY Jets 19 | • 68 | 55 |
| 2012 | at San Diego 31, Kansas City 13 | 44 | • 57 |
| 2012 | Denver 26, at Oakland 13 | 39 | • 43 |
| 2012 | at Baltimore 23, Cleveland 16 | 39 | • 40 |
| 2012 | Indianapolis 27, at Jacksonville 10 | 37 | • 39 |
| 2012 | at Atlanta 23, New Orleans 13 | 36 | • 58 |
| 2012 | at Buffalo 19, Miami 14 | 33 | • 34 |
| 2012 | at Green Bay 23, Chicago 10 | 33 | • 34 |
| 2012 | at St. Louis 17, Arizona 3 | 20 | • 48 |
| 2012 | at San Francisco 13, Seattle 6 | 19 | • 55 |
| 2013 | Indianapolis 30, at Tennessee 27 | • 57 | 36 |
| 2013 | Seattle 34, at Arizona 22 | • 56 | 27 |
| 2013 | at Detroit 40, Green Bay 10 | • 50 | 31 |
| 2013 | at Jacksonville 27, Houston 20 | • 47 | 19 |
| 2013 | San Francisco 35, at St. Louis 11 | • 46 | 36 |
| 2013 | Carolina 31, at Tampa Bay 13 | • 44 | 33 |
| 2013 | at Baltimore 22, Pittsburgh 20 | • 42 | 35 |
| 2013 | San Diego 27, at Denver 20 | 47 | • 48 |
| 2013 | New Orleans 17, at Atlanta 13 | 30 | • 40 |
| 2013 | at New England 13, NY Jets 10 | 23 | • 57 |
| 2014 | at Atlanta 56, Tampa Bay 14 | • 70 | 44 |
| 2014 | Indianapolis 33, at Houston 28 | • 61 | 27 |
| 2014 | NY Giants 45, at Washington 14 | • 59 | 37 |
| 2014 | at Denver 35, San Diego 21 | • 56 | 32 |
| 2014 | at Green Bay 42, Minnesota 10 | • 52 | 45 |
| 2014 | at New England 27, NY Jets 25 | • 52 | 33 |
| 2014 | at Detroit 34, Chicago 17 | • 51 | 34 |
| 2014 | at Jacksonville 21, Tennessee 13 | • 34 | 30 |
| 2014 | at Oakland 24, Kansas City 20 | 44 | 44 |
| 2014 | Philadelphia 33, at Dallas 10 | 43 | • 65 |
| 2014 | New Orleans 28, at Carolina 10 | 38 | • 51 |
| 2014 | at Baltimore 29, Pittsburgh 6 | 35 | • 66 |
| 2014 | at Miami 22, Buffalo 9 | 31 | • 39 |
| 2014 | Cleveland 24, at Cincinnati 3 | 27 | • 30 |
| 2014 | Seattle 19, at San Francisco 3 | 22 | • 24 |
| 2014 | Arizona 12, at St. Louis 6 | 18 | • 45 |
| 2015 | Denver 31, at Kansas City 24 | • 55 | 42 |
| 2015 | at NY Giants 32, Washington 21 | • 53 | 34 |
| 2015 | at New Orleans 31, Atlanta 21 | • 52 | 37 |
| 2015 | Green Bay 27, at Detroit 23 | • 50 | 34 |
| 2015 | Indianapolis 27, at Houston 20 | • 47 | 26 |
| 2015 | Baltimore 23, at Pittsburgh 20 | • 43 | 37 |
| 2015 | at New England 36, Miami 7 | • 43 | 30 |
| 2015 | at Cincinnati 31, Cleveland 10 | • 41 | 40 |
| 2015 | at Oakland 23, San Diego 20 | 43 | • 66 |
| 2015 | Buffalo 22, at NY Jets 17 | 39 | 39 |
| 2015 | at Jacksonville 19, Tennessee 13 | 32 | • 81 |
| 2015 | Chicago 17, at Green Bay 13 | 30 | • 44 |
| 2015 | Seattle 20, at San Francisco 3 | 23 | • 42 |
—Ian Allan