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Fantasy News

October 16, 2016

Thursday Night Games

Are Thursday games lower scoring?

San Diego beat Denver 21-13 on Thursday night, which may remind some of the notion that Thursday games are lower scoring. Should fantasy leaguers avoid using players in these games? Ian Allan explores.

San Diego beat Denver 21-13 on Thursday night, which may remind some of the notion that Thursday games are lower scoring. Should fantasy leaguers avoid using players in these games?

The driver in these games, I am certain, isn’t that the games are played on Thursday. The key factor is that they are division games. Offenses have less success when competing against an opponent that is familiar with its scheme and personnel. Doesn’t matter if the game is played on Thursday, Friday, Saturday or Sunday.

This can be confirmed by looking at the historical numbers.

Since the NFL started these Thursday night games, there have been 69 meetings between division opponents. Those games have averaged 41.7 points. There have been 49 games outside the division. They have averaged 46.5 points. Almost 5 points per game, which is very significant.

Furthermore, we can look at the other meetings between these divisional teams. That is, when San Diego and Denver meet again later in the year, we can measure the two games against each other. You’ve got the same teams with the same players meeting in the same year. The only difference is that one game was played on Thursday.

For the 69 completed rematches (some of which were “prematches”, played before the Thursday game), the average total points were 41.2. So the non-Thursday games were actually lower scoring than the Thursday games.

Of the 69 games, it’s split almost 50-50 on which ones were higher scoring – 34 Thursday games were higher scoring, versus 33 of the road games. (In two cases, the scores were the same.)

Here are the 69 such games. For each matchup I have put a black ball by the larger of the two scores.

Bottom line: give no thought to games being played on Thursday. Far more important is the matchup itself.

THURSDAY NIGHT DIVISIONAL GAMES
YearThursday GamePointsOther
2006San Francisco 24, at Seattle 14• 3834
2006at Kansas City 19, Denver 10• 2915
2006at Pittsburgh 27, Cleveland 734• 44
2006at Cincinnati 13, Baltimore 720• 46
2006at Green Bay 9, Minnesota 716• 40
2007Green Bay 37, at Detroit 26• 6347
2008NY Jets 34, at New England 31• 6529
2008Indianapolis 31, at Jacksonville 24• 5544
2008at San Diego 34, Oakland 741• 46
2008at Pittsburgh 27, Cincinnati 1037• 48
2009Indianapolis 35, at Jacksonville 31• 6626
2009Green Bay 34, at Detroit 12• 4626
2009NY Jets 19, at Buffalo 13• 3229
2009at Cleveland 13, Pittsburgh 619• 41
2010Indianapolis 30, at Tennessee 28• 5843
2011Green Bay 27, at Detroit 1542• 86
2011Oakland 24, at San Diego 1741• 64
2011at Indianapolis 19, Houston 1635• 41
2011at Pittsburgh 14, Cleveland 317• 22
2012Washington 38, at Dallas 31• 6946
2012New England 49, at NY Jets 19• 6855
2012at San Diego 31, Kansas City 1344• 57
2012Denver 26, at Oakland 1339• 43
2012at Baltimore 23, Cleveland 1639• 40
2012Indianapolis 27, at Jacksonville 1037• 39
2012at Atlanta 23, New Orleans 1336• 58
2012at Buffalo 19, Miami 1433• 34
2012at Green Bay 23, Chicago 1033• 34
2012at St. Louis 17, Arizona 320• 48
2012at San Francisco 13, Seattle 619• 55
2013Indianapolis 30, at Tennessee 27• 5736
2013Seattle 34, at Arizona 22• 5627
2013at Detroit 40, Green Bay 10• 5031
2013at Jacksonville 27, Houston 20• 4719
2013San Francisco 35, at St. Louis 11• 4636
2013Carolina 31, at Tampa Bay 13• 4433
2013at Baltimore 22, Pittsburgh 20• 4235
2013San Diego 27, at Denver 2047• 48
2013New Orleans 17, at Atlanta 1330• 40
2013at New England 13, NY Jets 1023• 57
2014at Atlanta 56, Tampa Bay 14• 7044
2014Indianapolis 33, at Houston 28• 6127
2014NY Giants 45, at Washington 14• 5937
2014at Denver 35, San Diego 21• 5632
2014at Green Bay 42, Minnesota 10• 5245
2014at New England 27, NY Jets 25• 5233
2014at Detroit 34, Chicago 17• 5134
2014at Jacksonville 21, Tennessee 13• 3430
2014at Oakland 24, Kansas City 204444
2014Philadelphia 33, at Dallas 1043• 65
2014New Orleans 28, at Carolina 1038• 51
2014at Baltimore 29, Pittsburgh 635• 66
2014at Miami 22, Buffalo 931• 39
2014Cleveland 24, at Cincinnati 327• 30
2014Seattle 19, at San Francisco 322• 24
2014Arizona 12, at St. Louis 618• 45
2015Denver 31, at Kansas City 24• 5542
2015at NY Giants 32, Washington 21• 5334
2015at New Orleans 31, Atlanta 21• 5237
2015Green Bay 27, at Detroit 23• 5034
2015Indianapolis 27, at Houston 20• 4726
2015Baltimore 23, at Pittsburgh 20• 4337
2015at New England 36, Miami 7• 4330
2015at Cincinnati 31, Cleveland 10• 4140
2015at Oakland 23, San Diego 2043• 66
2015Buffalo 22, at NY Jets 173939
2015at Jacksonville 19, Tennessee 1332• 81
2015Chicago 17, at Green Bay 1330• 44
2015Seattle 20, at San Francisco 323• 42

—Ian Allan

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